Startups, VC, & building cool stuff.

Aussie in SF
Joined May 2009
People commenting on this don't get that "my company uses AI" is not the same as "my company generated net new economic surplus because AI". We fired half our marketing/eng/support team does not mean more profit. They reallocated spending. New structure, same return.
33
This is what the death of saas looks like. Starting at the edge, but it's unstoppable. Saas margins are will look like food margins within ~10yrs. Good bye software moats, we loved you.
Got a cheap embroidery machine off amazon for $300 where the biggest complaint is the mandatory $12/mo app that you’re forced to use. Had ChatGPT create its own app that communicates with the machine. Generative art patches incoming!
1
40
Hugh Geiger retweeted
On bottlenecks: 1) economists have been exactly right about little extra growth despite very fast tech change. They thought a group of econs I organized were crazy >2 yrs ago at the AI labs when we said "1pp extra growth/yr through 2030". 2) bottlenecks *still* not understood 1/8
14
97
16
700
107,682
If you're wondering why we haven't seen the promised ai productive bump: Capital trapped in idling assets.
$NVDA 79% OF SURVEYED COMPANIES REPORT GPUS IDLE AT LEAST HALF THE TIME — VENTUREBEAT
36
Me using Astra high for UI cleanup, letting test accessibility as much as it wants. Sure, full performance audit because we updated a PNG. Go nuts Astra, it's FRIDAY! .... hoping @thsottiaux comes through with the goods over the w/e.
37
Easy way to work out if your system can be hacked: 1. Can it connect to the internet? Y/N If you answered Y, it has an AI exploitable zero day vulnerability. If you answered N, and it's a shoe or a chair or something with no silicon whatsoever. You're maybe 50% safe.
‼️ALERT - Two new unpatched CVSS 9.0 RCE flaws in #Linux's KSMBD SMB server were disclosed on public kernel mailing lists before fixes were ready. One can be triggered WITHOUT authentication. Neither has a mainline kernel fix. Details here ↓ thehackernews.com/2026/10/tw…
2
43
Hugh Geiger retweeted
So basically, today PHP got two critical bugs that let anyone run code on your server without even logging in, which is bad, and then the details leaked before the patch was even out, which is worse, and it works on WordPress and MediaWiki and Magento and Joomla and Laravel, and Censys says like 1.5 million servers are running a version with no fix, so the NSA was like "take your system offline," and the FBI was like "take your system offline," and CISA and the UK and CERT-EU were all like "take your system offline," and then the Prime Minister of Japan, the actual Prime Minister, posted at 5:55 in the morning telling 48.8 million people to take their system offline, so everyone took their system offline, like the Dutch cybersecurity agency took its own website offline, and the Dutch parliament went offline, and the Port of Rotterdam went offline, and Finland and France and Denmark started pulling government sites, and Wikipedia went down, and Archive.org went down, and Asana and GOG and Something Awful went down, and the University of Vienna's webmail went down for some reason, and that's just PHP. Because GitLab also dropped a CVSS 10.0, which is the highest score they give out, for a bug that's been there since 2014, so that's every self-hosted GitLab for twelve years, and then LiteLLM 1.107.0 got hijacked and shipped a credential stealer and a remote access trojan in every single wheel and the Docker images, including latest, and you didn't even have to import it, just installing it was enough, and it's the second time this year, and then Railway paused every deployment on the entire platform because someone got into the environment variables, so now everyone has to rotate every secret they've ever stored there, and TiDB Cloud said someone was walking around inside with stolen credentials for basically a month and an extortion group says they took 10.6 terabytes, and Zeabur got breached for the second time in two months and is just shutting down, like the whole company, and Node.js patched remote code execution and a TLS bypass, and CISA says Plex is being actively exploited, and someone took over 300 Tor exit relays to steal SSH passwords, and SafePay ransomware has hit over 600 critical infrastructure orgs, and India's biggest bank filed a data loss incident, and Japan has been in an official state of emergency in cyberspace since October 9, which honestly explains the 5:55 AM post. Oh, and eMudhra, a certificate authority that's issued over 60 million certificates, whose entire job is proving websites are who they say they are, was supposed to be using private keys that are random numbers over a hundred digits long, and one of them was 4. Just 4. And the others were like 66 and 237. Anyway, it's Wednesday.
1,079
8,934
1,651
69,415
4,170,029
I forget the exact stages of grief. Rage, Denial, then... bribery?
Trump: "If you elected a Republican House and Senate on November 3, you're gonna get $5,000. And if we lose, you get nothing. You're gonna get nothing! If we lose, you get nothing. Make it a lot easier vote."
2
35
Go forth and open-source every IoT device in your house. Dump their comms. See what they're sending home. God speed.
21
512
13
6,093
97,664
Hugh Geiger retweeted
With respect, this is terrible advice. You need to prove -- to yourself more so than to investors -- that intelligence is more valuable inside your product, than on top. If tokens *aren't* worth 4X inside your product, what are you even doing? You're just reselling the labs. 1/
Christina Cacioppo on why Vanta is eating its token costs: "If you try to charge people based on tokens, they are very quick to say, 'Oh, you've just marked up a Claude token 4X. Are you 4X as good as Claude?' You actually put yourselves in a competitive position against the models that probably no application really wants to do. We're eating the token cost right now. We're taking lower margin. This is a usage phase and a deployment phase of this technology, and just go nail that, and you can figure out commercialization after."
68
46
28
1,049
287,959
Damn they move quick
81
327
60
5,410
285,260
BREAKING: The cost of hedging against default by the hyperscalers has hit a all time high, per FT
1
33
Like Gen z, US beef has suffered grade inflation. Every cow gets at least a B+ now 😅
The USDA grade on a steak is a marbling score from one slice of the animal. It isn't a safety inspection. Prime, Choice and Select are the 3 grades you'll see at retail, and they're set by how much fat is flecked through the meat. After the carcass is split between the 12th and 13th ribs, a grader or a camera looks at the exposed face of the ribeye and scores the marbling. Prime needs slightly abundant marbling, Choice needs small, Select needs slight. That one score goes on the whole animal. No other cut gets looked at, and tenderness and flavor are never measured, only inferred from the fat. Inspection is required on every carcass but grading isn't. The packer asks for it and pays USDA by the hour, $101 an hour as of this month. About 68% of graded beef is now scored by camera, by USDA's own count. In 2006, 3% of graded beef was Prime, 56% was Choice and 41% was Select. By the end of 2024 it was 11% Prime, 72% Choice and 14% Select. Prime is typically 30% to 50% more per pound than Choice, and Choice is 10% to 30% more per pound than Select.
1
1
41
Hugh Geiger retweeted
Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe. wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-…
104
351
63
2,517
887,660
Feels like a Google product launch. Not a compliment.
38
Hugh Geiger retweeted
90% of software engineering in 2026: Engineer 1 → AI: “Build this and open a PR” Engineer 1 → Engineer 2: “Can you review?” Engineer 2 → AI: “Review this PR” Engineer 2 → Engineer 1: “LGTM” The irony: both engineers use the exact same AI model.
150
44
44
1,063
153,673
The europoor meme can be funny, but it's also midwit and wrong. As someone with both EU and US passports who's lived in both sets of elite poles (SF/NYC and BCN/BER/PAR), let me just give you the TLDR: -The percent of GDP spent on welfare in the US is the about the same as the EU (smidge under). -The effective tax rate in the coastal US is about the same as the EU (smidge under). -Both are (former) middle-class societies where much of society feels the social contract is broken. In the US, elites abandoned the middle-class decades ago, and the well-to-do in states like CA/NY have reconciled themselves to paying almost half their paychecks and getting nothing in return, planning to insulate themselves from the suck by paying for private everything: neighborhoods, schools, medical care. If their earnings keep on rising, they're OK with it. In France, that bourgeoisie hasn't been decimated yet, and they still expect (delusionally perhaps) basic social infra like schools to function (which is what these protests were initially about). The infra in Europe is a lot better than in the US, despite the GDP delta (New Yorkers can only dream of a subway like Madrid's). But that's clearly eroding in time, without the wage growth (or private social infra) to allow for a paid workaround. -The free healthcare blah blah meme is fake: the public health systems in Europe have collapsed to the point it's mostly a public/private hybrid, for anyone with a solid paycheck, and fuck you if you're poor, go to the public system (which is the ER in the US). Guess what? In Europe you've got deductibles, in/out of network and all the same shit as in the US (though yes, the cost is still lower, though more or less correlated with wages). -Boomers on both sides of the Atlantic are living in a dated lala land, but they vote to keep the system in place. In Europe it's legislation and printing money to prop up pensions; in the US, it's legislation and printing money to prop up housing prices and the stock market, which is the American 'free market' version of pensions. Rampant inflation and cost-of-living problems in both, with youth locked out of housing and living in precarity. -Both are struggling with having been historically middle-class societies US better positioned only because it has more economic growth (hello 80 hour weeks), and (obviously) leadership in critical fields like AI. But the foundational problems of an out-of-touch elite, incoherent immigration policy, and general social malaise that sees no meaning or purpose at the End of History is absolutely the same in both polities. Americans who mock what's happening in Europe simultaneously believe some X mirage about what Europe is (and have never lived there), as well as don't understand what's going on in their own country. The French Revolution happened a few years after the American one, and once again, the two countries are echoes of each other, as similar countries tend to be. France is probably the most 'American' country in Europe, in all the republican senses of the word (and no the Yookay isn't in Europe).
Dude, the same shit happened in the US a few years ago. Europe is just downstream of the US here. And the aggrieved master's degree people attending communist dinners you're talking about are found in even more abundance in Bushwick than in Oberkampf.
157
267
40
3,759
320,986
Hugh Geiger retweeted
Replying to @SLS_0x
Roadster with the full self-refill kit: multistage compressor, heat exchangers, N2 filters, extra batteries. Adds ~1850 kg. Ready for those 2-6 hour fills.
47
77
34
749
79,069
Modern life is one big trolley problem. We tolerate zero risk from proximate moral actors like doctors, but have high tolerance where moral ownership is ambiguous, like engineering teams. The button presses itself! Psuedo-rationalism peddled by e/acc sadly misses the irony.
Anthropic's proposed AI safety bill sets "killing or seriously injuring more than 50 people" as the risk threshold for blocking the release of an AI model In contrast, when a single patient (Jesse Gelsinger) died in a gene therapy clinical trial in 1999: - The institute that ran the trial was dissolved - The senior scientist running the trial was banned from clinical work for 5 years - Gene therapy saw deep cuts in funding and research activity for a decade Tech and biotech have just profoundly different cultures of risk. As AI companies increasingly engage with biomedical research, a culture clash is inevitable politico.com/news/2026/10/16…
1
81
Hugh Geiger retweeted
Be not for everybody
12
37
2
271
8,904