Market Investigators - Starting with Uranium and Nuclear

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Joined September 2024
Boundless Discovery retweeted
1/ Uzbekistan’s 15,000 tU uranium target for 2030 depends on five things it doesn’t control: a sanctioned Russian oil company, a copper smelter, the country’s fertilizer makers, falling gas output, and its biggest competitor. 🧵👇
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1/ Uzbekistan’s 15,000 tU uranium target for 2030 depends on five things it doesn’t control: a sanctioned Russian oil company, a copper smelter, the country’s fertilizer makers, falling gas output, and its biggest competitor. 🧵👇
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The US funding route appears to still be in play. Aura’s 30 September financial report names DFC among the parties in ongoing discussions over debt and strategic equity funding. Chinese involvement in the pilot would not, by itself, determine who finances the mine.
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Aura has also added deal-making and mine-restart experience. Incoming CFO Spencer Davey worked on Fortescue’s US$1.2bn sale of a stake in the Iron Bridge iron ore project. John Carr, who helped bring Australia’s Century zinc mine back into production, becomes President.
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An update on Tiris 🇲🇷 Our 22 September report highlighted local reporting of Chinese operators preparing a pilot plant in Bir Moghreïn - 400km away from the prospective mine. Aura has now confirmed construction in the town. The counterparty of their MoU remains unnamed 👇
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Aura says the plant was built off-site in modules for installation in Bir Moghreïn. The first packages are due in Nouakchott in late October.
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The market appears to be pricing Aura as a junior with no financier while evidence points to a Chinese state-owned nuclear major deploying engineers. Aura currently trades near a 52-week low. On 19 June, the executive chairman leading the financing also bought A$178,000 of stock.
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If a Chinese SOE takes equity and offtake, Tiris reaches an investment decision by year-end and most of its 2 Mlb a year – about four reactors' fuel – is China's before the mine exists. The West will be beaten to the pounds once again.
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June: Chinese customs record a 2,100 kg decanter centrifuge shipped Beijing→Mauritania as equipment for a Chinese-contracted project. Same month, Aura settled a flowsheet built around pre-leach centrifuge separation. Circumstantial. Consistent.
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Aug 2025: SNURDC, the uranium arm of state-owned SPIC, tenders advisers to screen overseas uranium projects. The notice lists "Project 3: Mauritania, advanced-stage exploration project (uranium)". Mauritania has one such project. Tiris.
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31 July: Aura reports its pilot plant "under construction" 3 August: Le Quotidien de Nouakchott describes Chinese operators at Bir Moghreïn installing "a small plant and a laboratory to test production before committing to the investment".
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May 2026, three weeks after Aura disclosed the MoU in draft: SNURDC opens full due diligence on a codenamed target, "Wildebeest" (角马). Legal, tax, valuation, risk, financial adviser. Delivery date: 31 December 2026. Aura's deadline for a commercial agreement.
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