NFL Week 7 survivor projections:
own% | EV
Circa (1,277 left)
HOU 43% | 1.03x
MIN 20% | 0.99x
NYJ 15% | 0.94x
DEN 9% | 1.01x
DAL 5% | 1.02x
LAR 3% | 0.98x
Splash $21M (1,019 left)
HOU 30% | 1.11x
MIN 26% | 0.95x
NYJ 17% | 0.93x
DEN 12% | 0.98x
DAL 6% | 1.00x
LAR 2% | 0.98x
i scored every nfl wong teaser leg since 2015 against the closing line. the dogs still print money, but the favorites stopped winning years ago.
Splash Week 6 Ownership Projections:
Rams
38.3%
Patriots
20.7%
Colts
19.2%
Chiefs
8.0%
49ers
5.1%
Panthers
3.0%
Circa Week 6 Ownership Projection:
Rams
48.4%
Colts
14.2%
Patriots
12.1%
Chiefs
11.1%
49ers
10.7%
Bills
1.1%
every big dog you have ever bet in the ufc cost you about 29 cents on the dollar. the favorite across from him was priced right to the decimal. sixteen years, 7,187 fights, $100 flat on each. three things the line still gets wrong, with charts.
Hold percent is the number that matters. vigged.com shows the no-vig price next to the best line so you can see the cut.
This is the whole thing. Same bet, different price, and the gap is the vig. vigged.com lines them up in real time.
You need 3 Sportsbooks minimum to be successful and maximize your earnings. Shopping for the best lines is extremely important. You’re not purchasing the side/total/player prop etc.. you’re purchasing the juice/vig. So where one book might have (-150) another could have (-120) and that makes a huge difference when you’re scaling up in hundred or thousand dollar unit increments. If you’re serious about making money, then set yourself up for success. 1 book isn’t enough, and local bookies are awful. They’re designed to make you lose. Bovada/Fanduel/Kalshi is a perfect combo, but it also depends on where you live. You can always use a VPN to gain access to other Sportsbooks.
IE: If Nike has Air Max’s for $150, but Foot Locker has the same exact shoe for $110, why would you buy at Nike?