$CRWV and $NBIS both report earnings next week. They've both been cut roughly in HALF in the past month, but they’re fundamentally different businesses financially:
• ~98% of CoreWeave’s revenue is take-or-pay on ~5-year contracts. Only about half of Nebius’s is long-term; the rest reprices within 1–3 years, plus their spot market.
• On ~70% of Nebius’s Q2 deals, customers prepaid 50–60% of capex. CoreWeave’s prepayments run 15–25% of contract value.
• On five-year GPU loans, CoreWeave’s latest priced at SOFR+5.50%. Nebius’s: SOFR+2.50%.
CoreWeave carries more financing risk, but has over a GIGAWATT more running than Nebius (1.5 GW vs. ~0.25 GW). Nebius is behind on power, but its balance sheet is more...balanced.
Take your pick. Battle of the neoclouds is happening next week!
Wild. Weights are becoming something you program, meaning custom self-hosted models are about to get a LOT cheaper.
Compute is king.
We asked GPT-6 Astra to edit Qwen3.5-0.8B weights to improve math.
It directly changed only 0.016% of weights, fixing 0.8B's reasoning loops & improving math up to 6x and even instruction following 3x, without gradients or training.
We call this Weight-Space Programming: frontier LLMs can now natively read/write neural network weights! 🧵
Blog: rikiyat.github.io/blog/weigh…
Given the current state of AI financing, I wanted to make a simple live tracker for the state of the AI money machine.
Check it out at compute.arinjaff.com. If I missed anything there's a submission form per-company, feel free to contribute, will be updating this live!
The Vera Rubin buildout by @nebiusai will bring in a whole new era of neocloud profit margins
Nebius announced 1GW online in 2027 in VERA RUBINS alone -> @gpujaff gives us an earnings breakdown below ⤵️
***Not to mention - this is assuming a 1yr contract , not the additional profit opportunities of renting out on-demand/M2M
