Father. Husband. Coach. Founder of A Street Investments. Private credit. Venture capital. Safety first. Tweets are not advice.
Olympia, WA, USA
Joined January 2009
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gregkero retweeted
Atlas Shrugged made simple:
1. Society runs on a small number of highly capable producers – industrialists, inventors, engineers – whose work everyone depends on but takes for granted.
2. The system starts rewarding need over achievement: the more capable you are, the more you’re expected to sacrifice for those who aren’t.
3. Success gets treated like a debt – taxed, regulated, resented – until the most capable start asking why they bother trying at all.
4. One by one, led by a man named John Galt, they simply withdraw – walking away rather than keep propping up a system that punishes them for producing.
5. Without them, the whole structure collapses, revealing that the “automatic” prosperity everyone assumed was actually being generated by specific, irreplaceable people.
6. Atlas is the Titan from Greek myth, condemned to carry the sky on his shoulders forever – Rand’s stand-in for the producer class, holding up civilization while getting blamed for it.
7. “Shrugged” is the whole argument in one word: Atlas doesn’t fight, doesn’t protest – he just quietly sets the weight down. Nobody realized the sky was being held up by anyone in particular, until the day it isn’t.
You don’t want us? We just go…🤷🏻‍♂️
The Road to Serfdom made simple:
1. Plan the whole economy: someone must decide what gets made and who gets what, since people don’t naturally agree on one set of priorities.
2. These decisions are too big and detailed for normal democratic debate, so power shifts to a smaller group who can just act – technocrats.
3. Fixed laws everyone can rely on get replaced by case-by-case rulings, because a plan needs flexibility, not predictability.
4. Dissent becomes a problem to manage, not an opinion to vote on – the plan can’t work if people are free to ignore it.
5. Enforcing all that selects for people most willing to be ruthless – Hayek’s “worst get on top” – i.e. negative moral selection.
6. Since economics touches everything (your job, home, speech), controlling the economy ends up controlling your whole life.
That’s the "serfdom."
He has absolutely lost it
gregkero retweeted
‼️THE MAYOR OF SLAM MARCOS SENDS THE TROJANS TO THE LOSERS BRACKET AS THE CATS ADVANCE TO PLAY A&M TOMORROW NIGHT‼️
gregkero retweeted
“There are two ways to enslave a country. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.” – John Adams
gregkero retweeted
I’m coming to the conclusion that the biggest challenge for Enterprise AI, and AI in general , as of now, is that it’s still impossible to make sure that everyone gets the same answer to the same question, every time.
Which is a great response to the doomers. AI doesn’t know the consequences of its output.
Judgement and the ability to challenge AI output is becoming increasingly necessary, and valuable.
Which makes domain knowledge more valuable by the second.
Am I wrong ?
Important read for those nervous about insurance company portfolio exposure to private credit
Reposted from the CEO of Athene on LinkedIn $APO
"I am increasingly seeing unfounded claims about the risks of private credit in insurance company asset portfolios gain undue traction in the news media. Here’s the reality.   Â
First, many of these characterizations draw on dated and sensational comments from the BIS and IMF.  Recent rational remarks from the Federal Reserve Chair, the U.S. Treasury Secretary and others that have sought to calm these concerns are often underrepresented. Â
Second, not all private credit is created equal. Many conflate direct lending, which is not investment grade, with the investment grade private credit that insurers actually buy.  Â
Third, much of the reporting characterizes the borrowers as small or speculative, when in reality most are investment grade loans to established businesses across the real economy — and our policyholders benefit directly from the yield premium. Â
Scale and context matter. A recent Evercore report by Tom Gallagher illustrates that Athene has 19% of its assets in private credit, in line with the industry average. These are our best assets, originated by Apollo from investment-grade companies. They feature additional structural protections offering excess yield over public debt from the same issuers, with credit performance that has been stronger than our overall portfolio. I wish we had more of them.  Â
Our largest such investment was the financing for Intel. Recently Intel announced they are prepaying the transaction at a significant premium to investors including Athene and other insurers. Â
We also work hand-in-hand with our regulators and have proactively adopted enhanced standards ahead of formal requirements. That is how this should work — and it does. Â
Life insurers play a central role in providing retirement security. When paired with underwriting discipline, transparency and strong oversight, properly structured investment grade private credit will continue to be an important part of the insurance portfolios that help deliver those promises."
Hearing responses on CNBC to questions re knock on effects of private credit issues, raise concerns of drying up of credit and drag on GDP. Recent problems are nearly 100% in PE funding. The economy will do just fine if exit multiples are lower for dentists, HVAC and car washes
Just read WSJ article by @jonathanweil and want his thoughts on how Vanguard and BlackRock S&P500 index funds should value NAV? There's no way either could fully sell any one of their positions at a quoted price. You say they are required to do so in your article.
You @JonathanWeil also say that "most recently, Blue Owl limited redemption requests for its fund OCIC, at 5%." First, there's no limit to requests. Second, the setting of redemption limits was done at fund formation, not recent. Being precise with your comments is important
gregkero retweeted
Hard to overstate the role shale gas has played in lowering inflation and spurring American industry. Were we a net importer today as forecast in the 2000s, domestic nat gas & power would be at multiples of current pricing, serving as a huge tax on individuals and companies.
1/5
While I'm at it. A lot of stress about PIK. According to Lincoln Intl, roughly 1 in 9 loans has some PIK element, but only about 1 in 16 has PIK that emerged post-close ('bad PIK'). Definitely evidence of credit cycle and something to monitor, but less than headlines suggest
Thought experiment for those who are warning about 15% defaults in PE-backed deals, and also warning about retail redemptions leading to tight credit markets. First, with that level of defaults, much less credit is needed. Second, retail money is about 10-15% of this category AUM