Engineering CEO, business owner, long term investor & daily options trader. Not financial advice. Be Blessed! https://teapawt.org/t.co/fZ2ZwCv7Op
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Joined October 2014
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Democrats: If you earn it, we want to tax it more to pay for those who didn’t risk it or earn it. In fact we want to take it after your death for the collective. We know better what to do with it than you do.
“What did your kids do to earn it?”
WTAF
All this ACA healthcare chat today. Here’s the deal:
ACA was a temp subsidy to offset costs for lower income while the industry would be reformed and lower overall costs. That was a lie, in fact costs skyrocketed as tax payers subsidized an unfettered increase and margin hike for the entire industry.
60%, arguably as much as 80%, of Americans are not net contributors. That group of people consistently increases with new births, immigration, and more welfare.
You cannot pay for 100% through efforts of only 20% and continue to overburden that 20%.
It’s really that simple.
Healthcare is like auto industry from covid. A $50k truck went to $100k due to lack of chips, then when chips came available they slowly dropped to $80k. The costs of production didn’t increase, the ability to normalize a new price level did.
Healthcare, education, food prices all same.
During covid an example I asked why a company forced execs to increase prices every month 10% when costs were same. “Do it until they break”. Are you reducing after covid? “Absolutely not”
That creates a new floor. It gets accepted.
So how did we do today? $SPY prep work...
Chop area 768-771 (almost perfect)
Plan: Hold over 771 for move up to posted targets (never breached); reject 771 was for chop through 768 for move down to 768 then 765 (exact LOD in session and after hours). Range bottom 765 (perfect!). Walls 770 and 765 (near perfect).
Not ideal price action, caught a couple nice moves including 325% and 125% but TBH tried a couple small scalps in chop as well earlier.
I really don’t understand the mentality in daytrading that 20-30% gains on 0dte in 5 mins is bad. $4k play, snipe 25% you pocket $1000 in less time than it takes to make a coffee but you quit a job making $25/hour to daytrade and post online.
Webull screenshots and X chatter has ruined trading expectations for most traders.
Let's recap this FOMC day. Couple scalps later in day but no trades early for me.
$SPY
1. Chop range 769-772.5 (stayed inside almost all day)
2. Range 768-775 (close, LOD 769)
3. Hold 772 for any upside, lose 769 for downside (stayed inside range = no trades)
Sometimes just recognizing nothing is tradable is the win.
Nice green day but nothing crazy, all base hits. Saw the perfect spot but late to party on this gap fill / PDC low of day at the hourly ribbon and daily 21. Called it out as the floor but waited a little bit to jump in for some reason. SPY went pdc to 61 fib exactly. As clean as it gets. Remember prep, 770 for calls but when we hit the extremes you can use fibs or levels to run it up to that spot versus waiting on it to act.
$SPY prep:
Hourly is trying to break a longer supply zone now and at hourly 200. I like a test of 769/770 to hold for any upside today, using chart for 770-772 move with potential 774. Chop around 766.5-769.5, range around 760-770 with break of 770 looking like 774 potential per my chart. Just early expectations. Fed meetings start today, little data, vix key level 17.76 ('Merica!). Still messy with daily and weekly compression till about 780 clears.
Because Casey is a long term grifter. He markets to people who can’t seem to figure out his schemes and pay him to lose their ass on ridiculous called chases off an ema that work like 40% of the time while he posts 100% win rates. I watched him do it live for a long time. He has a few tricks that were easy to catch on, and most of the room always loses. His partner and him were always cheesy grifters in both rooms they ran. His response to you shows his character. Just another moron who learned the grift during covid boom of day traders. He’s only getting loud now because people keep calling him out and he needs the subs, he has no plan B.
Why not have your trading history analyzed by a certified, independent professional? If your performance is truly as good as you claim, such a certified, independent audit would offer nothing but advantages: 1) You would prove to your subscribers that your results are real; 2) You would silence your critics—irrefutably. This stands in stark contrast to the analysis you currently present, which is worthless because not taking into account the actual details of your trades (entries, adds, profit-taking, etc). Refusing to consider such an official audit suggests that your critics might be right... Curious to hear your thoughts on this.
does he still do that thing where an alert goes 40% red and all of a sudden played it 1/4 size instead of full while room lost? or the one where play is -70% so he “added heavy” until he gets a break even candle? or where his entry price was one that never even hit? or takes 2 losses, comes back on a hail mary and gets a win and posts rest of day on X how he has perfect win rate for 6 weeks? or my fav the screenshot of every candle then post the exact last one before the play imploded as if he sold exactly there for no reason and nothing on his chart telling you to sell while entire room lost the trade? or when a play goes wrong he somehow trimmed out at 12% and got a W but this time he forgot to mention the exit? or sometimes posts a trade after fact but forgot to show the alert until it works out because room is throwing 💩 emojis on the last 2 losses? or the “100% banger” where he got out at 15% but posts 15 straight 100% wins on X? he’s such a clown 😂
Let's see how we did. $SPY prep was
Chop 760-763 (exactly)
Bull view: Hold 764 targets 767-768 (764 was the ramp, retested 3 more times (767.73 was HOD)
Lose 760 for bear view (never lost it)
Took 2 trades, 2-2, about 104% and 40%. Did not trade after lunch since we have 6 reasons to see chop. First play tapped my upper resistance to the penny and we walked through why to exit there and not continue on a retest of emas, which it did.
Pure beauty. And free.
Some ask why I don't do alerts. Well, I am not a professional licensed trader and it is illegal. But I lay out the prep daily with targets, supports, resistances, and probabilities. I take trades at times for 1 min max, others for full runs. I give the layouts and chop area before market opens, and play setups as I see them. I aim for $3-5k a day, so I will take some hits when off. I might take 100 cons for 10-25% on a solid resistance if it lines up for me and out before an alert would trigger your execution. I watch multiple timeframes at once, and use $SPY $ES $SPX and $VIX.
Here's my plan today:
Chop expected $SPY 760-763. Hold over 764 for chance at move up to 767-768 but has to overcome MTF and strong resistances. Lose 760 as my floor for move down looking at 758 demand, then 758-755 move. Not loving chart today. Compression on hourly, daily, and weekly. Currently in chop on all lower timeframes.
I walk away when we get stuck under a supply. Just perfect here. Even if you didn't short there, you definitely don't long there. Right to the VWAP. Clockwork.
Rode $spy from fib to fib exactly. Confluence of fib, supply zone from prior, R3 resistance, and inside daily ema ribbon MTF. Get a candle formation on 10m (inverted hammer here) and you have a perfect exit. No reason to give it back trying for a screenshot.
Someone once told me my charts are just "random lines" and you "sell when happy". That guy is an idiot, and sells subs to stupid people. If you played the simple emas over prior day high zone, you took a huge drawdown on a prayer or got stopped twice.
There is nothing wrong with adding in confluence. Simple is simple for a reason when it comes to technicals. Do you really think algos run on 2 emas and a zone? Can you buy a car with a webull screenshot of a 312% runner you bought for $50?
Rode $spy from fib to fib exactly. Confluence of fib, supply zone from prior, R3 resistance, and inside daily ema ribbon MTF. Get a candle formation on 10m (inverted hammer here) and you have a perfect exit. No reason to give it back trying for a screenshot.
Someone once told me my charts are just "random lines" and you "sell when happy". That guy is an idiot, and sells subs to stupid people. If you played the simple emas over prior day high zone, you took a huge drawdown on a prayer or got stopped twice.
There is nothing wrong with adding in confluence. Simple is simple for a reason when it comes to technicals. Do you really think algos run on 2 emas and a zone? Can you buy a car with a webull screenshot of a 312% runner you bought for $50?
Everyone trades differently. I will say that I have 1000s of hours of screentime and millions traded and some things I have to think traders need to evaluate.
VWAP - no idea how you don't use this
Multiple timeframes - execute on lower, plan on higher
Supply / Demand - I use poi zones, incredibly helpful
Premarket and prior day are guides, nothing more
EMAS as for trend, nothing more
Divergence is a cheat code
Fibs are static lines based on prior price. Nothing better.
Pivots are static lines based on prior price. Nothing better.
15 min break of a level means nothing, backtest and see.
Watching 1-2min charts only is why you lose $.
Liquidity and FVGs are as real data as you need.
I can see GEX levels with no data by looking at my chart, just not net gex. Don't overthink it.
Never frontrun a play into a poi, 200 ema or liquidity. Breaks are great, but most often a wick gets yanked back for a loss. Play the odds. These are algos, use the math. Backtest.
Some ask why I don't do alerts. Well, I am not a professional licensed trader and it is illegal. But I lay out the prep daily with targets, supports, resistances, and probabilities. I take trades at times for 1 min max, others for full runs. I give the layouts and chop area before market opens, and play setups as I see them. I aim for $3-5k a day, so I will take some hits when off. I might take 100 cons for 10-25% on a solid resistance if it lines up for me and out before an alert would trigger your execution. I watch multiple timeframes at once, and use $SPY $ES $SPX and $VIX.
Here's my plan today:
Chop expected $SPY 760-763. Hold over 764 for chance at move up to 767-768 but has to overcome MTF and strong resistances. Lose 760 as my floor for move down looking at 758 demand, then 758-755 move. Not loving chart today. Compression on hourly, daily, and weekly. Currently in chop on all lower timeframes.
Have you ever seen a furu with a super successful trader child or spouse?
If you have a perfect easy system that you sell to strangers, why would your family not be the first you train? Infinite money glitch.
If my trading system was foolproof and 90% win rate using a couple simple rules, then I’d replicate that edge every way possible. I’d pull my kids out of school to trade it.
Always wondered about this, feel free to weigh in.
If a golfer hits 400 off the tee and fairway 90% of the time with 3 years of stats to prove it, why would be break out an 8 iron to play safe? Same wide fairway, same conditions.
So if a pro trader claims 90% win rate and 100% average win per trade then why would they scale so low in size? Why wouldn’t you scale up, there is mathematically no way to lose?
Gunner/Trader96 retweeted
One common trick is to pretend it’s so simple. Only use 1-2 indicators but to master that you have to sub to their discord and watch them trade. It will take you years to master they tell you, although they did it in months. So you sub for a small $100/month for couple years. You lose but blame yourself. You copy exact trades and lose while they market 90% win rates. But you keep paying because there’s no way you can give up now. 100 accounts a day post how you can never give up. It’s not the $100 you lose, it’s the repeated losses, the endless time spent, the frustration. I’ve heard of people taking their lives over it.
What a crappy way to make a living doing this to others. And they can always justify themselves.
I had a fake guru argue about why I called out his fake results. Why should I care? I watched people lose incredible amounts on alerts that produced losses but were marketed as high profit. Even fake accounts to promote huge personal gain. It was easy to spot after a while.
Simple question is why would you do it if not to defraud people? It’s not by accident.
You can lie all day about your height, salary, run a 4.1 40. But why fake a single result in trading if you are selling alerts? It’s not just ego at that point, it’s not marketing…it has clear intention to trick people into paying you for a service. A service that produces less profit than advertised with false or even exaggerated results. Similar to the “bangers” where they market 200% daily wins on a trade where they exited at 20%, or took a trade down 70% only to add 4x and hope for a miracle candle to level out, or after a loss claim only 1/4 size on that alert, or they buy 1 contract and preserve the sub income, or that thing where they even change their pnl for the screenshot (easy one). Why deceive your followers when they pay you? It’s a marketing scheme aimed to deceive. No other explanation.