
Crypto Enthusiast, Analyst and Educator | Home of simplified crypto Founder of @veware_io For all my socials.. 👇for futures signals, DM me on TG @ herve_ve
Joined September 2021
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I’m working on something with Bybit. Was gonna get it from my previous manager but he quit his job telling me in his exact words “I made a fuck ton of money bro”
So now I pitched the idea to my new manager and he wants to see some activity.
Sign up to Bybit with my link here. Let’s show him!
partner.bybit.com/b/Understa…
it’s a surprise 😊
Darwinian capitalism!
This #EthereumOG, who bought 100,000 $ETH at just $0.31 each, sold another 1,500 $ETH ($3.48M) over the past 8 hours.
xitter.cf/lookonchain/status/211…
The sentiment I’m getting right now in the markets is fomo.
I think most people are contemplating about buying in now so as not to miss out on the supposed up coming rally.
Some thoughts on this..
-The best time to buy is when most people start to question the probability of the markets going back up. So what if we are yet to get to that time? What if we go back to 55k, or even 39k?
-It appears that most people have forgotten that we are in 2026 which is actually a bear market year!
From a historical perspective, the big rally would come this cycle in 2028 and even if we are being too optimistic then that’ll be next year. Of course we could get lucky and it happens now but is that likely?
If your main reason to buy right now is because of the fomo then you should not be buying!
Wait for the fear… the moment when even you will doubt the idea of price going back up.
However, if you follow a DCA strategy or simply, you just feel like buying now is ok by you, then go for it.
We’ll update on price action tomorrow.
The problem with capitalism is how its incentives work.
If you manufacture weapons, your ideal outcome is war and instability. When the company is publicly traded, that incentive gets worse. You may lobby and fund politicians who push for war, because peace is bad for the stock price.
It is the same logic as a coffin salesman hoping people keep dying.. without which, his product is useless.
Right now it is unclear whether the war will continue, yet some people are actively lobbying for it to drag on simply so they can make more money.
The darker part is that ordinary people can buy those same stocks and quietly hope the fighting lasts longer, because that is what makes their investments rise.
Capitalism has many real benefits, but it is still strange that a system can turn continued war into a rational financial preference.
I remember a lot of people posting this completely random line and calling it support. I wonder what they think now that we closed the weekly below it.
Perhaps, in an effect to ramp up my engagement, I need to drastically simplify my analysis and just post totally arbitrary and obvious stuff like this?🤔
But I can’t do that cus my base is far too smart now. Y’all would start laughing at me as I laugh at people who post this 🤣
I guess I’m stuck 💀
I think the market maker likes playing a mind game with price.
They push it to a certain level, let it sit there for a while, and wait until people get used to it. Once that zone starts feeling normal, they move it again. The same fear and euphoria people felt at the old level quietly shifts to the new one.
First time we hit 100k? Euphoria.
Months later at the same price? Just another day.
That old 50k zone once felt like a major win. Now the same number would feel like a crash to a lot of people.
Nothing fundamental changed about the number itself… only what our brains decided it means.
They park it, let the crowd adapt, then move. It’s not really about who made or lost money at that exact price. It’s about resetting where the emotional floor and ceiling sit so the next move hits harder.
The question now is, what price would Bitcoin need to hit for you to start questioning your investment/trading decisions?
Wow.
We got outflows here on ETFs.
Whales aren’t too optimistic 😆
🚨 JUST IN: Spot Bitcoin ETFs just bled $635.6M in a single day, the biggest outflow since June.
BlackRock's $IBIT alone dumped $254.1M.
bitcoin:native is quite likely to troll both investors and traders for a very long time.
I believe the troll will be so strong that some holders will sell.
Of course, if it just goes full rocket then hallelujah. However, I don’t see how likely such a move would be.
This bear market was the shortest in history. If the bull market were to remain the same, then we'd have roughly 910 days to go for this bull market's ATH.
I doubt that it will take that long given how short the bear was.
SOL bullish divergence on the 4H.
The whole thing is strange because for this move down, i can no longer project lower without a significant retracement (for sol and for other alts) but i still can for btc lol
A strange phenomenon!
Alts are looking bottomy but bitcoin is not?
Ideally SOL should bottom in this zone here. check our previous SOL outlook.
Just for context,
10 year US bonds yield 5.08-5.10%
2 year yields 4.73-4.74%
30 year yield 5.42-5.43%
Vs
Ethereum native yield at 2.2-2.6% 😂
So Eth doesn't even beat the 2 year 😭
Now, the bright side is, unlike the bonds, ETH yields aren't fixed! They can increase with increase in network activity.
These are the ideal target zones for Ethereum this cycle. The first zone could very easily be the main top, so we will be watching this relative to btc.
This forecast strongly depends on ETH not going lower than our local low at $1507. If it did (which i can't prove) then we will have to scrap everything and re-asses. Ideally, it should not.
Most institutional investors or whales got into ETH it's early days for it's yields. However, now, bond market yields exceed ETH and they are the safest asset. Except that changes, perhaps with serious large scale RWAs on ETH (unlikely right now or this cycle), we have to be more conservative with our ETH ideas.
ps: the main reason why an institutional investor would prefer eth to btc is it's yields.














