@horvick

DHM Research, Senior Vice President Also at @OregonAt100 for daily news from the past

 Portland, Oregon
dhmresearch.com
Joined October 2009
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Updated county turnout in Oregon for October 27 (7 days prior to the election)
John Horvick@horvickOct 26
Turnout by county in Oregon's 2026 midterm as of October 26 (8 days prior to the election)
6
3
46
5,476
Here is the party share of ballots received on each day for Oregon's election. Today's ballot share: -Dem 37% -Rep 35% -NAV + other 29%
289
Here is the party vote share of total ballots cast as of today, 7 days before the election. Party / Today / 2022 final / 2018 final -Dem / 43% / 40% / 42% -Rep / 31% / 30% / 30% -NAV+other 26% / 30% / 28%
2
1
7
1,956
Estimated turnout by precinct in Multnomah County as of October 27
3
3
2
30
3,235
Share of votes for Democratic (left) and Republican* (right) gubernatorial candidates among counties won by Tina Kotek: 1930 to 2022 *1930 treats independent candidate and election winner Julius Mieler as a Republican
3
924
Turnout by county in Oregon's 2026 midterm as of October 26 (8 days prior to the election)
24
10
10
181
30,538
Don't overinterpret these Oregon numbers, but here is the party vote share of ballots cast as of today, 8 days before the election. Party / Today / 2022 final / 2018 final -Dem / 44% / 40% / 42% -Rep / 30% / 30% / 30% -NAV+other 25% / 30% / 28%
3
2
16
2,115
The chart above is the party share of *total* ballots cast. This chart is the share of ballots cast for each day. For the ballots reported today: -Dem 41% -Rep 32% -NAV + other 28%
2
354
Democratic and Republican ballot share for each day in Oregon. Oct 16: Dem 64%, Rep 17% (D +47) Oct 19: Dem 48%, Rep 31% (D +17) Oct 20: Dem 52%, Rep 26% (D +26) Oct 21: Dem 53%, Rep 25% (D +28) Oct 22: Dem 48%, Rep 29% (D +19) Oct 23: Dem 41%, Rep 33% (D +8)
22
6
1
59
21,544
Oregon ballot return update and why it probably doesn't say much about final turnout. Those who have voted are just regular voters. Democrats -Voted in 8 of last 8 elections: 49% -6+ of 8: 75% -Age 65+: 64%
1
2
1
12
2,695
more replies
NAV -8 of 8: 17% -6+ of 8: 39% -Age 65+: 43%
1
1
267
Other parties -8 of 8: 25% -6+ of 8: 54% -Age 65+: 56%
188
Oregon turnout by party in midterm general elections: 1966 to 2022
1
4
837
Oregon turnout in midterm general elections of registered and eligible voters: 1966 to 2022
3
9
2,496
The final October consumer sentiment numbers are out from the University of Michigan. Here are the changes by party. Dem 36.6 (+1.0) Ind 42.4 (-5.3) Rep 83.0 (+5.8)
1
1
1
419
The age composition of Oregon's electorate from 2018 to 2026. The projected ballots for 2026 assume that turnout by age is the average of 2018 and 2022.
1
553
John Horvick retweeted
John Horvick@horvickFeb 15
Winning vote share in Oregon gubernatorial elections
3
3
11
880
I am tracking Oregon ballot returns, but avoiding reading anything into them. Those who have voted were almost certain to anyway. Ages and vote history of voters who have returned ballots. Dems -Age 65+: 65% -Voted 8 of 8 of the past 8 primaries and generals: 53% -6+ of 8: 78%
4
1
1
18
6,461
Reposting Republicans. There was a typo in my text. Republicans -Age 65+: 65% -8 of 8: 46% -6+ of 8: 74% Thanks to @SpaceOddities for pointing out the error.
3
313
Agree with Kevin. Whether Oregon--or Texas, Wisconsin, etc.--allow data centers or not we will still have to make decisions about our relationships with AI.
Kevin Frazier@KevinTFrazierOct 21
As state legislative sessions near, the bills that get the most headlines will likely deal w/ frontier issues. But we ought to pay attention to "boring" AI topics, too. Here's a smattering of policies expected by Oregonians, for example. via DHM Research.
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