@inpredict

actuary | creator of https://xitter.cf/t.co/BTWJrSMjWY | co-creator of https://xitter.cf/t.co/HNxUmLCtpq | you can also find me at bsky under the same handle

 Los Angeles
inpredictable.com
Joined July 2013
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I'm so excited for this launch, and incredibly proud of the work @cwetzel31 and @basketballvalue have put into this. I'm really looking forward to how we can contribute to the sport of volleyball.
Evollve@evollve24 Aug 2023
We are thrilled to announce the launch of Evollve! Our goal at Evollve is to provide the volleyball community with consistent, reliable, and easily accessible data and analysis. Check it out at evollve.net!
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Mike Beuoy retweeted
Blake Murphy@BlakeMurphyODC14h
Net rating stabilizes around 1 game if you really want it to
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Win probability is not a bankroll you need to manage with a calibrated fractional Kelly strategy. You're not going to parlay that 0.10 of win probability into a long term optimal growth rate. There's no benefit in avoiding ruin if there is an option with a higher *expected* WP.
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4th and 6? Too risky to go for it. Let’s play it safe and send out my college kicker for a 55 yard attempt.
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Some coaching decisions can be explained by assuming they view losing a game due to a missed field goal to be preferable to losing a game on a turnover or a failed 4th down conversion.
Lord Commander 999@HailMarylandOct 12
"As soon as you are firmly in field goal range you send the kicker out, it's as simple as that!"-Mike Tomlin
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New Substack post: Midterm Model Melee Pitting 3 forecasts of the Congressional Midterms against each other in a daily betting/prediction contest. inpredictable.substack.com/p…
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Putting these two charts side by side, what jumps out is that the top shot in the NBA (+28% title probability), would rank just #6 on the WNBA list. And that the 2016 Finals shows up on both of these charts.
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Mike Evans Checking to see the name on the back of the Jersey is an all-time Gif and trash talk moment that I wish I would have thought of.
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The top 10 shots in WNBA history, as measured by their impact on title probability. Half of the shots on this list come from just 2 games: - 2026 Finals G5 (#1, #4, and #5) - 2008 Conf Finals G2 (#7 and #9)
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Here's a top 25 version. Players that make this list twice: - Nneka Ogwumike (for the same game) - Maya Moore (twice in the top 10, no less) - Sabrina Ionescu (for the same game) - Tangela Smith (for the same game) - DeLisha Milton-Jones
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What it was, was football.
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*2016 Finals, not 2026. We can hope though.
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LSU had 4th and 1 to end the game.
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I'm working on a WNBA version of this chart. Who wants to take guesses on what shots make the top 10?
Mike Beuoy@inpredictJun 16
Here's an alternative look at the biggest shots in modern NBA history, this time sorted by change in title probability (rather than KL divergence). Some my think this is a better list - we get Jordan twice here. But Ray Allen's shot gets downgraded.
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Harper Murray's hitting percentage is down this season, but it's largely due to back row attacks. Front row attacks HP%: 2025: 0.264 2026: 0.266 ↔️ Back row: 2025: 0.360 2026: 0.152 ⬇️ evollve.net/stats/ncaa/women…
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But her last 4 games have begun to reverse that trend: evollve.net/stats/ncaa/women…
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a notable example: xitter.cf/HuskerVB/status/210834…
Nebraska Volleyball
@HuskerVBOct 9
YOU GOTTA SEE THIS ONE TO BELIEVE IT!!!!!!!! 🤯 #SCTop10 x #GBR
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Someone needs to build a 4th down/ 2PT model configured for what some fans and coaches actually optimize for. Average win probability for remainder of game maybe? Or maximize the amount of remaining game time where my win probability is greater than [x%]?
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Mike Beuoy retweeted
Michael Lopez@StatsbyLopezOct 6
The 2027 Big Data Bowl is live #BigDataBowl
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Here are the top 12 win probability added performances in a losing effort:
Suns_Set@SunsSet13Sep 30
Replying to @inpredict
Do you have the other 11?
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On Feb 3, 2024, the Warriors lost to the Hawks, despite +101% in win probability added from Steph Curry. It's the 12th best WPA performance from an NBA player in a losing effort (in the play by play era).
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