Recently saw seed-stage founders dilute themselves 50% from a SAFE raise. I’ve looked at hundreds of SAFEs as an investor at @Softbank and now a @ycombinator/ @launchhouse founder. SAFEs may no longer be the "standard" for early-stage raises. Here are four reasons why:

If agents mattered, consumers would already be using them—protocol or not. UCP is just the latest addition to the ACP / MCP / A2A acronym stack. Agentic commerce doesn’t have a protocol problem. It has a product-market-fit problem. 1. Do users actually want agentic commerce? Integrated commerce has created massive value (app stores, Apple Pay). Users clearly value convenience. But the open question is what specific pain point agents remove — or what new delight they deliver — beyond simply embedding shopping into a default interface. 2. What must be solved for agentic commerce to scale? Even if PMF exists, scaling agentic commerce still requires several hard problems to be solved. Synthesizing my own research and work by @Natlevywesthead, @arampell @venturetwins : - Signal & agency: real behavioral-based preferences, memory, and clear authority to act - Supply & execution: comprehensive, callable inventory, pricing, and transactions that reliably complete - Trust & rails: agent identity & authorization, KYC/ KYA-like safeguards, and web/MCP/A2A rails that aren't brittle Protocols matter—but only insofar as they help solve a much harder problem: PMF. Until agents feel meaningfully better than existing products, agentic commerce cannot scale.

Meta's acquisition of @ManusAI isn't a random product moves. It shows how tech companies prepare for multiple "probable future states" - like AI bingo. Every major tech company is placing pieces on the board. A few elementary levers creates dozens of permutations: 1. Interface (where users interact with AI) - Apps like ChatGPT, Claude - OS powering phones and computers - Browsers like Comet, Chrome, and Atlas - VR/ Hardware like Vision Pro, Alexa, and Google Home 2. Rails (How agents execute and coordinate) - Tools & data integrations (MCPs i.e. OpenAI connectors, ACPs i.e. Stripe) - Virtual browsers (Operator, Manus) Once you map this out, the moves make more sense. A few months ago, OpenAI didn't have Atlas - now they have browser distribution. Yesterday, Meta didn't have manus - now they have a virtual-browser execution layer. These aren't isolated product decisions. They are coverage moves that build towards a portfolio, balancing their resources and unfair advantages. This is not the perfect bingo card, missing obvious futures - but every major player is filling some version of it. Whether you're a startup, investor, or executive, the question isn't what is "the" future, but which futures you're actively building or buying for - and which ones you're choosing to ignore. 👉 If you're working in agentic search and commerce. I'd love to connect to trade notes! DMs open. #AI #agenticsearch #agents

Figma was on page 6 of my book The Super Upside Factor with @WileyGlobal. It's THE case study I used to introduce Asymmetric Principles - where the few wins are enormous, and many losses are survivable. Last week, Figma IPOd and hit $60B in valuation. Figma's founders and early investor all kept the core three principles needed to make this happen: 1. Budget for a 90% failure rate. For nearly a decade Figma didn't generate real revenue. They stayed lean and iterated - failing several experiments until they found PMF. 2. Position every bet for 100x outcome. You can compensate the 90% failure if every swing you take has the potential for 100x outcomes. Figma tinkered with monetizations for a while, and in 2021, they hit an inflection point, generating almost $100m ARR. 3. Create positive feedback loops. Adobe tried acquiring Figma in 2021 for $20B, but it fell apart. Figma didn't stop there, and continued to build until they hit almost triple that with $900m ARR. These seem like simple principles, but as a YC founder, I know it's incredibly hard to stick with them for this long. I'm happy to see all the hard work pay off! Huge congrats to @zoink and @dannyrimer and @tmrohan at Index as the earliest institutional investors!

Everyone assumes LLMs will be "horizontal" — like Google sending traffic to links, or Apple enabling apps. Incentive structures suggest otherwise. 🔍 𝗟𝗟𝗠 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗶𝘀 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 — 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗳𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀 • ChatGPT's daily queries at a 1:6 ratio to Google's daily search volume. • Web traffic from LLM search depressed by 80% "sucking oxygen for the web" • Major LLM partnerships focused on enhancing functions, not information. 🏗️ 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗽𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝗟𝗟𝗠𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺 • Consumer-interface held their price while compute cost fell 10x each year. In the same time API costs have fallen, likely approaching cost-plus • More product leverage, double and tripling dipping from consumer subscriptions, take rates (OpenAI x Shopify), and ad revenue (Perplexity) • OpenAI hired @fidjissimo as CEO of apps; Perplexity formalized verticals, Anthropic launched Claude for Financial Services Travel is among the most searched topics on ChatGPT (per @colintjarvis, OpenAI). It’s also massive — nearly 9% of global GDP. Also loved the commentary from @AravSrinivas (Comet launch) and @kirstenagreen (“From Search to Service”). Curious how others see this shift playing out. If you're building in the Travel x AI space, comment or DM and we can chat! 👉 Full break down here: itsdankang.substack.com/p/tr…

I just revealed the biggest secret held by the venture capital industry at @TEDxStanford. Venture capitalists don’t win by being right all the time. They place hundreds of bets. Most fail. But a few return 100x — and that’s enough. What if you could apply the same principles in your life? That's what I did for the last decade: 🎒 100+ scholarship apps → education I couldn’t afford 💸 150+ VC meetings → millions in funding for my startup backed by @ycombinator 📚 25+ articles → a book deal with @WileyGlobal Everyone works hard. I didn't work harder than every other student, founder, or writer, but positioned myself better for 100x outcomes. In my TEDx talk, I break down the 3 rules I used to manufacture luck when I was broke, rejected, and unknown. If you're taking risks, feeling stuck, or want better odds: 🎥 Watch the full TEDxStanford talk here 👉 youtube.com/watch?v=12XWJRWl… #TEDx #VC #AsymmetricUpside #TheSuperUpsideFactor

🎉 Last week, I turned 30 and launched The Super Upside Factor, published by @WileyGlobal. In my 20s, I leaned on “borrowed” reputation—@BCG, @SoftBank, @UniofOxford—opening doors but inflating perceptions of my value. Starting my own company with @ycombinator forced me to ask: Was I renting credibility or building something real? 🚀 Heading into 2025, I’m ditching the optics and doubling down on building real things—with my startup and now The Super Upside Factor. That doesn't mean I won't ever borrow credibility—this book carries generous endorsements from @jihoonrim (ex-CEO of Kakao), @alok_sama (ex-president of SoftBank) and @nireyal (Author of Hooked). Have you ever felt like you were “renting” your credibility? Start 2025 by owning reputations—and results—that no one can take away. Borrowed reputation only gets you so far. #TheSuperUpsideFactor #AsymmetricPrinciples

Congratulations to our partners at @UnshackledVC on the new $35M Fund III supporting immigrant founders! They were my first investors who care about founders as people. ​Check out the full article on @TechCrunch techcrunch.com/2023/06/27/un…

Had a blast discussing company building on NEA’s podcast Founder Forward ft. @jackconte @Patreon & @jpgg @NEA Listen on: nea.com/founder-forward/epis…