Contrarian. Risk, incentives, probability & human madness. Student of Taleb, Mauboussin, Howard Marks & Rory Sutherland. Echo Room.
Joined May 2020
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My opinion:
I’m not touching Dangote shares until this election settles.
Almost every major Dangote business has significant exposure to government policy. Cement, sugar, salt, and now refining.
Unless FOMO is driving the decision, I don’t think the shares are going anywhere. The IPO price is fixed during peak hype; the market price after the November listing won’t be.
Election season brings uncertainty: naira pressure, foreign investors repositioning, policy risk and potentially panic selling. That’s where I think the real entry opportunity could show up.
So instead of going 💯 into Dangote, if there’s no IPO extension, I’d rather wait and buy the refinery from the secondary market.
Then I’d split the risk:
50% Dangote Refinery
30% sitting Nigerian president reelection position
10% bearish on the iPhone duo
10% third Trump impeachment position
The timing of these bets is obviously different, but I’d rather be patient and be right than rush because of FOMO.
Men these days 😭😭😭😭. Bad enuf 2even talk to another man about UR marriage!
Especially 2 a pastor. This one though calmly but foolishly telling men to walk on eggshells. If she got flat butt & I say it angry, yes she does, if apology or sex can’t sort it, she’s as good as gone, no time. Una dey craze.
The fact that he couldn’t get some outside for 9months says a lot about him.
“It is not death that a man should fear, but he should fear never beginning to live.”Marcus Aurelius
BadAtCertainty retweeted
Yoruba women are the undisputed architects of African high fashion! 🇳🇬✨
They perfected the Gele, mastered Aso-Ofi, and birthed styles that the entire world now copies. Pure elegance, zero competition.
This is a Yoruba women appreciation post, thank you for keeping us culturally undefeated!
As it should be! The government should clamp down seriously on the fakes products too!
China 🇨🇳 Has Come To Stay.
@followlasg @jidesanwoolu should not allow anybody or organization to intimidate the Chinese people.
BadAtCertainty retweeted
Peter Obi’s N75bn savings claim is a classic case of PR branding. Peter has reduced the quality of education among his followers.
Yes, Peter, you owed money when you left office: long-term multilateral/foreign loan liabilities were sitting on the books. It means you owed money. Recall that you also planned a N4bn debt-financing budgetary estimate for 2014?
To reach this N75bn figure that you parade every day, you counted actual cash alongside foreign bonds, commercial equity stakes, local hotel investments, and expected federal receivables.
On paper, the 2013 audited financial statement proves liquid cash was only N46.4bn, and the actual liquid cash handed over in March 2014 was roughly N27bn, with the remainder tied up in illiquid projects and assets. So, stop deceiving your audience that you left N75bn+ in cash savings. Be specific: separate liquid cash from illiquid assets. Stop the political accounting tricks, Peter.
If we define borrowing by standard accounting rules, where taking on multilateral loans or facility drawdowns increases state debt liabilities, Peter Obi's statement dodges the fact that total debt liabilities went up during his tenure. From 2012 to 2013 alone, foreign debt liabilities increased by over N1.85bn.
Debunking the Phantom Debts and Ecological Loan Fallacy
My attention has been drawn to trending claims by the Anambra State Government that my administration left behind inherited debts, including a ₦2 billion ecological loan, contractor liabilities, and unpaid salaries, gratuities, and pensions. This is completely false.
We systematically liquidated historical gratuities and arrears dating back several years, amounting to over ₦35 billion. At the point of handover, the state owed nothing in salaries, gratuities, or pensions, nor did we owe anything to any contractor for projects duly executed and certified.
The ₦2 billion ecological fund in question was released barely three months before the end of my tenure for the Oko/Umuchiana erosion crisis. Despite pressure to spend the money, I refused, insisting that it should be left for my successor because government is a continuum and the funds were tied to a specific project.
The money was therefore left 100 per cent intact in First Bank, in Account No. 2018779464, with a balance of over ₦2.13 billion.
It is important to stress that funds tied to specific projects or set aside for particular purposes were not even included in the over ₦75 billion in savings we left behind.
If anybody can establish anything to the contrary, I will stop campaigning. -PO
BadAtCertainty retweeted
Used to rate this brother when I first came across his tweets, but recently I’ve only been seeing him tackle Peter obi, just come out with your full chest and say you support tinubu, all this your intellectual mental gymnastics isn’t fooling anyone
BadAtCertainty retweeted
IGBO women this is for us!!! 👌
Enough is Enough from us!!!!!!⚠️
#trendingreels #trendingnigeria #viralpost #viral #viralreelsシ
BadAtCertainty retweeted
I tweeted few days back that “Most women should not be allowed to speak on public issues because they cannot separate logic from emotions.”
This beautiful lady here is proving my point by exposing how her fellow women think.
You only see women being this logical once in a blue moon.
Usually, what they do is generalize outliers and double down once their emotions are involved.
Nothing of value. Just Arse.
Same gender foaming in the mouth that Nigerian men lack personality. But all year,all day 80 percent of them can’t do anything, sell anything, build anything or influence anything without involving men one way or another. They Cant think of anything creative other than just throwing ugly arse all over the timeline.
Looking for attention, favour and money from same no personality unfortunate horny men. Meanwhile Nigerian men steady bagging international women even in Naija here. The Nigerian women on the other hand can’t even hold a conversation to save their lives. Radarada.
See Arse like rock of aging.
It’s grtting ridiculous the amount of lies and fake stories all over sm these days just to monetize or “blow”. It’s becoming its own little market: recycle an old, familiar story, make men the villains or the punchline, and people will believe it because outrage gets attention.
Now you’ll see an otherwise average looking Ipaja girl claim some random man handed her ₦400k simply because she was “too beautiful,” and nobody stops to ask whether the story even makes sense. It doesn’t have to be true; it just has to trigger the right audience.
Low-effort fiction → outrage → engagement → money. That’s the business model.
Brainless, mentally lazy, and lack of creativity.
Just low effort lies and same template everywhere.
Oloriburuku set.
