The line in the sand is clear.
The world is watching the SEC closely, and it appears the market has decided:
"There will be an approval of a #Bitcoin Spot ETF soon!"
With that being said, could this be a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" event? 馃憞
No matter what you believe, you can probably agree that the crypto market is the definition of volatile.
In a week, crypto moves more than the Stock Market does in a year!
With that being said, an approval does NOT mean that we will have the spot ETF the next day.
The approval means that the #SEC agrees with the plan to BUILD the #BitcoinETF, not to issue it the next day.
It could take some time until they fully debut.
For example. the first ever Gold spot #ETF was created on the 28th of March 2003, but it debuted on the 18th of November, 2004.
This is forever away for an asset class that moves 20%+ in a week.
The speculative nature of "trillions entering" will not happen overnight, leading to a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news event.
As an example of this, let's take Ethereum and the Merge, which was a game changer,
The event made Ethereum 99% more energy efficient, made it deflationary, paved the way to sharding, etc.
And after an initial pump, Ethereum's price went home.
This is the name of the crypto game: Speculation.
I hope I'm wrong, and $BTC goes to 100k.
But history tends to often repeat than not.
#Bitcoin has taken all of the spotlight as of late.
But #Ethereum has silently been moving as well.
It has wicked to the resistance, and if #Bitcoin holds up these prices, it will break it sooner or later.
Here is why 馃憞馃憞
For #Ethereum to rally, Bitcoin needs to rally first.
It is only then that ETH can rally.
The cyan line is Bitcoin.
And any time it decides to rally, the $ETH / $BTC chart falls down.
Only after a few weeks, it rebounds and starts going up.
And it has been a pretty sizable bleed so far.
From the start of the Bitcoin rally, $ETH / $BTC went down 34%
Provided that Bitcoin cools off for a few moments without dropping, Ethereum will see a big break to the upside.
As it is already at its resistance!
It doesn't need a lot for it to make it through.
But if Bitcoin decides to dip sharply, it's a different story...
Any time #Bitcoin had a sharp & sustained breakdown, #Ethereum suffered MORE as presented by the $ETH / $BTC chart
MORE is the keyword.
Whenever #Bitcoin goes down, it takes the entire market down with it.
And this could play out if the #BitcoinETF is rejected.
But I think we have more than enough time for #Ethereum to catch up before that happens.
#Bitcoin is SMASHING through every resistance!
And just today, it hit the magical number: $42,069!
Laughs aside, the momentum is unreal.
And #altcoins are failing to catch up. 馃憞馃憞
The Bitcoin dominance is once again looking to put in a new yearly high!
The momentum is strong, and as we approach the spot #ETF deadlines, Bitcoin should continue to go even higher.
While the rest of the market is continuously being left behind.
"The price follows the narrative"
To further prove this, we can examine what Ethereum did with the Merge upgrade.
The Merge narrative halted Ethereum's downtrend, and flipped it soon after, driving the price up 130% since the lows.
Meaning that the #BitcoinETF narrative will have a similar effect to Bitcoin.
Leading to higher gains in #Bitcoin than in the rest of the market, as visualized by the dominance.
So, if the dominance breaks out, how far it can run?
In the immediate future, the next stop will most likely be ~57%
But if we see a Bitcoin spot ETF approval, then this level will get sliced like butter.
Cardano has been bouncing around in a channel for over a year.
With yet another attempt at the resistance, and with great bullish momentum, many hope that the #BullMarket has returned.
And they might be right. 馃憞馃憞
Here is the historic chart of $ADA
The resistance is clear, and the channel is clear.
What isn't so clear is which path will #Cardano take.
To find out why, we need to look at the previous cycle.
The current move reminds me of the same move right before the 2020 recession.
That move probably would have gone much higher if it wasn't for the black swan.
And yes, nobody could have seen a pandemic coming our way.
But the recession did what it did.
Today, there are undeniable recessionary risks that markets seem to shrug off.
Which could set $ADA to repeat what it did in the previous cycle.
Moreover, the $ADA / $BTC chart appears to be getting rejected.
So, is the #Cardano bull market back?
It depends if there is a recession or not.
Rarely does a big coin go up in a sustained way without the whole industry doing the same.
And for an industry to go up in a sustained way, monetary policy needs to be loose/looser.
If a #recession manifests, we get a repeat of the precious cycle.
If not, then we could see #Cardano test the .60c range.
Today, #Bitcoin and the #NASDAQ have both put in new yearly highs!
And with the stock market right below it, markets have 0 worry about a potential recession.
When will this rally end? Is the new bull market back? 馃憞馃憞
Except for an ETF approval, #Bitcoin's price is heavily subject to macro in the short to mid-term.
That's why I will focus mostly on traditional markets.
Both the $NASDAQ and the $SPX topped out in July.
Interestingly enough, it also corresponds to when the terminal rate was reached.
Now, this can mean two things.
- This might not be the terminal rate;
The whole point of raising interest rates is so that the economy cools off.
But the #economy decides to rally, coming close to putting in new ATH!
IF this continues, it might push the FED to hike again.
The other possibility is that investors are adjusting to the new monetary conditions.
- Things haven't broken yet. Maybe nothing will break;
Many have started to believe the "no landing" scenario, where nothing breaks and we just ride off into the sunset with # returning to normal.
While this is a possibility, I don't think it's likely.
Simply because things don't appear broken until they break.
And history has showcased this numerous times already.
So, is this the bull market back?
Probably not. Until inflation gets back to target for an extended period of time, this cannot be achieved in a sustained way.
When does this rally end?
It's anybody's guess.
I thought we already put in the yearly high, but that doesn't seem to be the case.
But as I described the scenarios above, I don't think we can rally for long.
Sooner or later, the clock will strike midnight.
Overworld is already overhyped, and they are already "minted".
This is because they have a collection of Keys that have exclusive utility.
Utility that pushed it to a floor price of 10 Ethereum!
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