Jason Doctor retweeted
I’ve learned so much from Henrique and Yuhta working on this paper. Extremely excited to see our paper published! Many thanks to the editor and referees for a smooth process.
A thread on the paper:
In their new paper, @smorgasborb, @xiaolin_econ, & Ishii tackle an important question: How should we make decisions using multiple information sources when we don't know their correlation?
restud.com/robust-aggregatio…
#REStud
#EconX
#EconTwitter
Jason Doctor retweeted
This paper is what I have been yelling about for a few years now: the true danger in empirical social sciences is more often "researchers degrees of freedom" in design, data curation, measurement, choice of method.
The big threat is not outright fraud or p-hacking (although these are problems) or even biases against publishing null results. Its those hundreds of small choices researchers make when preparing their papers -- none of which are sins of omission or commission. They're good faith human decisions with no malice.
Yet, two equally good faith moves can generate different results. This apparently forthcoming paper in Journal of Economic Literature asked 146 research teams to estimate the same causal effect using the same underlying data. In unconstrained setups, they arrived at massively different results. Even in more constrained setups (with more directives), they showed differences. All of which came from picking the design and curating the data (cleaning). Huge!
I would reformulate the problem as unexamined researcher degrees of freedom, rather than methodological freedom itself! Indeed, what we need is a strong contestability (and good faith) to point out what could be happening.
Jason Doctor retweeted
New study shows that naloxone expansion did not explain the decline opioid overdoses that began in 2023 - administrations of the rescue drug actually dropped.
statnews.com/2026/10/23/opio…
Jason Doctor retweeted
Berkeley's Morrison Library, a "computer-free" reading room, is close to that device-free norm.
I was there last week: overwhelmingly people reading physical books, a joy to behold.
"It's like we shoot at the side of a barn and then draw a bullseye around the bullet hole."
That right there kids is called "researcher degrees of freedom."
Replying to @paulnovosad
Academics are really good at convincing you that what they did is important, even when what they did was kind of arbitrary and inspired by what was feasible or readily at hand.
It's like we shoot at the side of a barn and then draw a bullseye around the bullet hole.
Perception is filtered through discrimination. The weak orders commonly used in econ are, in practice, semi-orders--indifference is intransitive. "Shrinkflation" capitalizes on semiorders as do add ons at the point of sale, and price creep, and platform decay online.
Jason Doctor retweeted
The most important briefings of the day.
Karl Deisseroth, professor of bioengineering and of psychiatry and behavioral sciences, shares the news of his Nobel Prize with his kids.
[@ben_golub ]: Are eigenvalues involved?
[narrator]: Eigenvalues are the primary tool used to decide how many components to keep for the final regression stage.
[@ben_golub ]: I like it!
I sometimes think about Vonnegut's "Ice-9," now a cautionary tale about madness and instability in a world where intelligence could run wild. Maybe like water in that book, intelligence is "metastable"; a small advance keeps the world the same(2), but a large one destroys it (3).
Writing can involve descriptions of introspection, feelings and states of being that are not relevant to conversation or debate. Therefore, writing is essential to thinking.
Jason Doctor retweeted
We have thousands of years of religious, philosophical, and legal traditions trying to “align” humans and make our behavior “safe.”
Now we’re trying to speed-run toward those goals with AI.
As we have often failed with humans, we should expect and plan for failures with AI.
Christopher Guest but instead of naming nuts he is naming leadership roles at journals: "Editor, Deputy Editor, Associate Editor, Assistant Editor, Guest Editor..."
Jason Doctor retweeted
If you’re young, one of the main ways you can add value at work is by taking advantage of a lack of family responsibilities to just take annoying shit on and be helpful.
slowboring.com/p/feed-the-li…
This is a good example of the psychology of risk perception. Two factors predict high-risk judgments: "dreadfulness" and "uncontrollability." Plane crashes are dreadful and uncontrollable, but air travel is safe. You don't control the Waymo; driving seems safer, but it is not.
I'd say it is relevant :P(patient alive X yrs) uses measure theory. Time of death has infinite points. So we must break it up into a countably infinite disjoint point sets. Lebesgue measure has no countably additive extension to all subsets of the reals. Hence, measure theory.
Jason Doctor retweeted
“The worst possible way to find out a new drug is in the city is by an autopsy,” Humphreys said.
sfist.com/2026/09/14/victim-…
I kind of agree . Singular points have empirical meaning fixed points are a trick to prove a theorem. Every singular point is a fixed point of every automorphism. But, not every fixed point is a singular point.
In prospect theory for example, the status quo is a singular point.
A fixed point theorem proves that one map sends at least one point to itself. This is not anything to do with the theory, just a math fact that can help get a proof to the finish line.























