Physicist and Space Cadet @MIT @UTAustin

Hong Kong
Joined June 2009
One the controversial beliefs that I have (which @gonglei89) disagrees very strongly with is that Xi Jinping was very strongly influenced by Ronald Reagan, and so China focuses on the supply side rather than the demand side.
Replying to @woke8yearold
It's kinda weird that a marxist country doesn't understand that raising aggregate demand is a core aspect of industrial development. Under the marxist lens democracies succeed because the interests of consumers are represented, accelerating aggregate demand. From abolition, civil rights act, consumerism, wokeism, welfare, etc. half of American history has been innovating on ways to increase aggregate demand. The hukou system, lack of strong safety net, weak capital markets, cracking down on consumerist media, etc. don't help. I can see why someone would want to avoid overproduction and consumerism but stronger social nets would probably net decrease unemployment here. The treatlerite is simultaneously America's greatest weakness and strength.
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Replying to @AngelicaOung
@AngelicaOung @RossFeingold Everything that I say as to be prefaced is that I may look like an idiot the day after election day when Puma wins by a landslide. But the reason I am really skeptical that there is really an ocean wave is that I am seeing a actual blue tsunami
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in the US. In the US you can point to specific policy reasons why the Trump 2024 coalition broke up (the economy and the Iran war). In Taiwan, you can point to some changes (i.e. the economy is okay because of the AI boom), but nothing like the Iran war that would be a game
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changer. So this has the feel of a media event, but one that doesn't seem to have deep legs. One thing that surprises people is that issues really matter, and there is only so much that you can win by "X has a nice personality."
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Yup. There is an absolute ton of empty office space, but this turns out to be a good thing because the price of office space is going down, and people are finding clever things to do with cheap office space.
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Incredibly cheap hotels, for example.
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Shenzhen is literally a copy of Silicon Valley. So the question is how did SV become so dystorpian.
America needs a Shenzhen of the West it will be built differently, in a way that fits our country's existing topology but it's incredibly important we are competitive on 1) talent 2) capital 3) factory & infrastructure density right now our version of this is spread out across the western US - SF has software talent and capital - LA has hardware talent and factories, but is limited by scale - The Texas Triangle is where you go to scale we need to either bring these things closer together or make it easier to travel between all these places the important outcome is that this will increase cross-pollination and collaboration, and this in turn will compound progress the metric must be "same day round trip" - you should be able to go anywhere in the zone and return to the same bed every night this threshold is important because opportunities emerge out of both: 1) serendipity 2) low-predictability socializing both of which happen when you can afford to be less intentional about where you show up, because the cost for you to do so is lower the second you're forced to be intentional, you triage what's "worth it" to show up for and your likelihood of unexpected interactions plummets density is the key to velocity. this is why cities have long been important for civilizational progress. same problem, new opportunity, new stakes.
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And this is nonsense. China does have a problem with lots of college graduates.
China’s low domestic demand results in high unemployment and widespread suffering among the Chinese people even if it is effective as increasing industrial power in the short to medium term. The system is fundamentally unstable. China also needs to be saved by AI and automation
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Good grief, this will not work. Let me have Ernie explain this to you youtu.be/Y8sNT-VFCow
Replying to @Brad_Setser
I have done some informally vetting of the idea (and have some relevant experience here) and think it could work in practice not just in theory -- so I hope the relevant folks in the Commission and the major capitals give it a new look 12/12 cfr.org/articles/how-use-rus…
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Also because I worked in a bank during the 2008 crisis, two words that do not go with each other are "financial" and "creativity." In the end the problem is that the EU just does not have the money.
Politico is reporting, unsurprisingly, that the Europeans need to mobilize more funds for Ukraine -- I think there is a pretty easy way to do it that respects Belgium's redlines, but it take a bit of financial creativity 1/ many
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Look one difference between me and you is that you have never worked in a bank and I have. This will not work. The trouble is that you can do all sorts of crazy things with SPV's and structures. In the end the people that buy the bonds just care about the money.
Politico is reporting, unsurprisingly, that the Europeans need to mobilize more funds for Ukraine -- I think there is a pretty easy way to do it that respects Belgium's redlines, but it take a bit of financial creativity 1/ many
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Unless you can guarantee that the people will get their money the answer is no.
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Also one thing I strongly disagree here is that the elections will change very much in the long run. Taiwan's fate is ultimately going to depend on external forces, and the Houthi attack on Saudi is going to change things more than Taiwan local elections. @AngelicaOung
"Controversial KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, who has ambitions for the nomination, has become so toxic that the party’s candidates are outright avoiding her on the campaign trail for this November’s elections." thewirechina.com/2026/10/25/…
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One problem with the CIA strategy is that no one has really given a reason why someone should vote for Puma Shen. The thing about Chiang is that in other cases where a city went against party, there has always been some major scandal. The weird thing about Puma
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Shen is that no one has given a good reason why people should vote for Puma. The assumption is that you can just hold rallies and get people's support.
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Replying to @AngelicaOung
@AngelicaOung Also one thing that used to be a conspiracy theory is the idea that someone in DC is trying to influence Taiwanese elections. One thing is that once you agree that this is the strategy, then a lot of things explain themselves. Puma Shen's strategy makes no sense
"Controversial KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, who has ambitions for the nomination, has become so toxic that the party’s candidates are outright avoiding her on the campaign trail for this November’s elections." thewirechina.com/2026/10/25/…
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So Beijing honestly does not care who is the next nominee of the KMT, and they don't even care who leads Taiwan, as long as they are willing to accept some version of the 92 consensus.
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The one thing that might help the DPP is that the economy is relatively good because of AI (although I think it will fall off a cliff before 2028). The trouble is that most KMT counties are running as incumbents so an AI is good would help Chiang, for example.
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Also I can be useful since I am a deep blue pro-China. The thing about us deep blue guys is that we make up about 10% of the electorate. The thing is that Lu is unelectable without the support of deep blue.
"Controversial KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, who has ambitions for the nomination, has become so toxic that the party’s candidates are outright avoiding her on the campaign trail for this November’s elections." thewirechina.com/2026/10/25/…
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Also someone at the CIA seems to have gotten the idea that Chiang is the pro-China candidate and Lu is the moderate. This is the same sort of lack of analysis that has gotten the US into a mess in Iran and Afghanistan.
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