One the controversial beliefs that I have (which @gonglei89) disagrees very strongly with is that Xi Jinping was very strongly influenced by Ronald Reagan, and so China focuses on the supply side rather than the demand side.
Replying to @woke8yearold
It's kinda weird that a marxist country doesn't understand that raising aggregate demand is a core aspect of industrial development. Under the marxist lens democracies succeed because the interests of consumers are represented, accelerating aggregate demand. From abolition, civil rights act, consumerism, wokeism, welfare, etc. half of American history has been innovating on ways to increase aggregate demand.
The hukou system, lack of strong safety net, weak capital markets, cracking down on consumerist media, etc. don't help. I can see why someone would want to avoid overproduction and consumerism but stronger social nets would probably net decrease unemployment here.
The treatlerite is simultaneously America's greatest weakness and strength.
Replying to @AngelicaOung
@AngelicaOung @RossFeingold Everything that I say as to be prefaced is that I may look like an idiot the day after election day when Puma wins by a landslide. But the reason I am really skeptical that there is really an ocean wave is that I am seeing a actual blue tsunami
Shenzhen is literally a copy of Silicon Valley. So the question is how did SV become so dystorpian.
America needs a Shenzhen of the West
it will be built differently, in a way that fits our country's existing topology
but it's incredibly important we are competitive on
1) talent
2) capital
3) factory & infrastructure
density
right now our version of this is spread out across the western US
- SF has software talent and capital
- LA has hardware talent and factories, but is limited by scale
- The Texas Triangle is where you go to scale
we need to either bring these things closer together or make it easier to travel between all these places
the important outcome is that this will increase cross-pollination and collaboration, and this in turn will compound progress
the metric must be "same day round trip" - you should be able to go anywhere in the zone and return to the same bed every night
this threshold is important because opportunities emerge out of both:
1) serendipity
2) low-predictability socializing
both of which happen when you can afford to be less intentional about where you show up, because the cost for you to do so is lower
the second you're forced to be intentional, you triage what's "worth it" to show up for and your likelihood of unexpected interactions plummets
density is the key to velocity. this is why cities have long been important for civilizational progress.
same problem, new opportunity, new stakes.
And this is nonsense. China does have a problem with lots of college graduates.
Good grief, this will not work. Let me have Ernie explain this to you
youtu.be/Y8sNT-VFCow
Replying to @Brad_Setser
I have done some informally vetting of the idea (and have some relevant experience here) and think it could work in practice not just in theory -- so I hope the relevant folks in the Commission and the major capitals give it a new look
12/12
cfr.org/articles/how-use-rus…
Also because I worked in a bank during the 2008 crisis, two words that do not go with each other are "financial" and "creativity." In the end the problem is that the EU just does not have the money.
Look one difference between me and you is that you have never worked in a bank and I have. This will not work. The trouble is that you can do all sorts of crazy things with SPV's and structures. In the end the people that buy the bonds just care about the money.
Also one thing I strongly disagree here is that the elections will change very much in the long run. Taiwan's fate is ultimately going to depend on external forces, and the Houthi attack on Saudi is going to change things more than Taiwan local elections. @AngelicaOung
"Controversial KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, who has ambitions for the nomination, has become so toxic that the party’s candidates are outright avoiding her on the campaign trail for this November’s elections." thewirechina.com/2026/10/25/…
Replying to @AngelicaOung
@AngelicaOung Also one thing that used to be a conspiracy theory is the idea that someone in DC is trying to influence Taiwanese elections. One thing is that once you agree that this is the strategy, then a lot of things explain themselves. Puma Shen's strategy makes no sense
"Controversial KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, who has ambitions for the nomination, has become so toxic that the party’s candidates are outright avoiding her on the campaign trail for this November’s elections." thewirechina.com/2026/10/25/…
Also I can be useful since I am a deep blue pro-China. The thing about us deep blue guys is that we make up about 10% of the electorate. The thing is that Lu is unelectable without the support of deep blue.
"Controversial KMT chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, who has ambitions for the nomination, has become so toxic that the party’s candidates are outright avoiding her on the campaign trail for this November’s elections." thewirechina.com/2026/10/25/…








