John Ryu (@john_ryu) header
John Ryu (@john_ryu) profile picture

Building access to institutional caliber investment strategies @SimplifyAsstMgt | Startup investing @hypothesisvc

New York, NY
Joined February 2009
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Reddit call was absolutely fascinating. Everyone should listen to it as a bellwether for where the internet is going - AI Mode is increasingly default Google experience - AI Mode provides rich info and data in line, less incentive to leave search - AI Mose incentivizes dialog, Google wants to keep you engaged to serve more ads at each turn - Google will milk search for as much revenue as possible as they transition from a search company to a cloud service and chip company - As traffic from humans becomes more scarce this will put Google in an increasingly adversarial position to the rest of the internet - This is a massive headwind to all media type companies who are not destinations - This is a massive headwind to all content-driven go-to-market motions especially in the SMB. You have seen companies like HubSpot and Monday.com get crushed by this funnel collapse We are entering the end game - a knife fight for the remaining and dwindling volume of human traffic on the internet
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CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM (2001) 🎃
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New book on Tom Brady: "A common trait I’ve found among repeat champions is a prominent chip on their shoulder, from slights both real and imagined, often nurtured for decades. When what you seek is not wealth or fame but vindication, you can never get enough." wsj.com/arts-culture/books/b…
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John Ryu retweeted
One of the most compelling parts about working at an ElonCo was the agility to pivot to whatever the most important problem was. One day I said: I wasn’t hired to go after spam, but a tsunami is coming and I’m going to drop everything to focus on that. The org is so flat and agile that your title is basically meaningless. Anyone can sound the alarm about a problem and solve it themselves—or rally the team to join them. This is how startups work but it’s very hard to make it work in a larger company.
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Gemini 4 Argon has an insanely low hallucination rate on Artificial Analysis. 15%. Grok 4.7 is at 29%. GPT-6 Astra 45%. Opus 5.5 59%. Fable 5.1 69%. The only models below it barely answer anything. None of them get more than 15% right. It gets fewer answers right than Opus 5.5 on max, 50% against 66%. But when it doesnt know, it says so instead of making something up. Cant wait to get my hands on it.
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When I stilled worked on biosecurity, I first learned about Debug, a Google project to reduce mosquito populations. Results from their Singapore pilot are now out. They crushed mosquito populations, reducing dengue infections by 70% in the process:
There is no good reason for mosquitoes to exist in wealthy countries today. New technologies can get rid of the mosquito species that cause diseases like dengue, yellow fever, and malaria; and others can prevent them from carrying those diseases. worksinprogress.co/issue/mos… So why do mosquitoes still exist? In a new article for Works in Progress, Maya Rosen explains how state incapacity and risk aversion led to over a decade of delays and billions of unnecessary bites in the United States. Oxitec, for example, engineered an Aedes aegypti mosquito in such a way that its female offspring would die before adulthood. Through sustained releases, they showed they could reduce local mosquito populations by 80% or more, in field trials. They sought approval from the USDA in 2010, which then passed it to the FDA, which passed it to the EPA. In 2020, the EPA allowed them to conduct limited field trials in the Florida Keys. Two years ago, their experimental permit expired, and they still need another review before it can be used routinely. Their proposed field trial in California was withdrawn after public opposition. Another company, MosquitoMate, developed a technique involving Wolbachia, which also suppresses local mosquitoes. They then spent over fifteen years working through the system before finally receiving commercial registration nationwide in 2024. It seems that, sometimes, the barrier to getting rid of diseases isn’t technology at all. It’s policy and political will. New products shouldn’t get stuck in regulatory review for so long, especially if the delays are about basic questions like which agency has oversight over the product, rather than testing for safety. Though some of those uncertainties were being addressed, the broader changes haven’t materialized. After Biden’s 2022 executive order, the agencies planned to update how their coordinated framework was implemented. But Trump rescinded the order last year. Meanwhile, the EPA unit that reviews new mosquito control products is still a small office backlogged in reviewing a wide range of products. Mosquitoes are a policy choice. We can get rid of them. Will we choose to? worksinprogress.co/issue/mos…
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John Ryu retweeted
Justin Verlander says goodbye to his teammates And then holds his daughter’s hand as he leaves the mound 🥹
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The World is Changing: AI For Creativity By Jeffrey Katzenberg A few months ago, I sat in my office in Silicon Valley and watched as a tech founder showed me something extraordinary. On the screen was a fully realized, beautifully lit, well-composed animated scene. It was stunning and it made me feel exactly what I felt in 1986 watching Luxo Jr. That was the first time I watched a computer-animated 3D character take a breath and seem, against all reason, to have life. It left me in awe. Later that day, I received a text from an artist I've known for thirty years, 350 miles to the south, in the city where I spent most of my career. After seeing a similar video, she texted: "Is this the end of us?" My answer was, "Certainly not.” I have spent the better part of the last decade in Silicon Valley, but the heart of my career has been in Hollywood. Being deeply connected to both worlds means I have deep loyalties to each and a responsibility to speak honestly to both. In 2023, I said that these new AI tools would cut the time and cost of producing world-class animation by as much as ninety percent within three years. Some colleagues were alarmed, many were furious. There is growing fear and resistance surrounding AI within the creative community. I deeply understand it, because I've spent countless hours walking through animation studios watching gifted artists bent over their desks, rebuilding a single second of film for the tenth time because the ninth version wasn't quite right. I've sat in screening rooms where four years of people's labor played out in minutes, and I knew the name of every person that had spent countless hours bringing those images to life. The creative process is a calling, there's really no other way to describe it. From the outside some see resistance. From the inside, it is love. People do not fight this hard for things they don't care about. The pushback coming out of Hollywood represents the collective effort of people who are deeply passionate about their craft. Is History Repeating Itself? The history here is more complicated than either side may realize. In 1906, the most famous composer in America, John Philip Sousa, published an essay titled “The Menace of Mechanical Music." He warned that the phonograph would become "a substitute for human skill, intelligence and soul." Sousa's fight was not really about the machine, it was about money. The machines were playing his compositions, and the men who built them weren't paying him a cent. His campaign helped create the Copyright Act of 1909. He did not stop the technology. He changed the terms under which it could use his work. A hundred years ago, sound came to the movies. We remember it now as a miracle, and it was. What we forget is who paid for it. Before sound, tens of thousands of musicians made their living in the orchestra pits of movie houses, scoring every film live, every night, in towns all over the world. When the soundtrack arrived, the work of one composer and one orchestra was recorded for a film that went into thousands of theaters. The union fought back with everything it had, taking out newspaper ads across the country warning against the menace of "canned music," one of them showing a mechanical man tearing the strings out of a harp while an angel wept. They were not fools, and they were not Luddites. They were right. Those pit jobs did not come back. And yet (this is the part we have to be brave enough to admit), sound gave us the movie musical, the modern score, sfx, sound design, audio engineering, and an art form vastly larger than the one it disrupted. And it helped keep Hollywood in the forefront of world entertainment for the rest of the century and into the next. The loss was real. And yet the art form expanded. This is a story that has been told over and over again. To resist technology is to risk irrelevance. Just look at Kodak or Blockbuster. To embrace technology is to open doors of new possibility. Just consider Apple and Netflix. What I Learned From Walt Disney In the mid-1980s, I was tapped to lead Disney's animation division at a moment when the studio was at an inflection point. Animation wasn't just another business unit. It was the soul of the company, a medium revered because of Walt's genius and his passion. But the production system was cumbersome and unforgiving. A single movie was 125,000 individual hand-drawn and painted cels, photographed one frame at a time. Every revision carried a cost measured in months. These degrees of difficulty shaped the kinds of stories we could tell. We found our way forward in an unexpected place: Walt himself. The Disney archives held astonishing recordings of Walt explaining his creative process. His own writings. His notes and storyboards. Work product captured at every stage of his process. This was truly a gift. Listening, reading, sitting with the work itself, we heard him talk about character, about emotion, about how an audience feels when a character truly comes alive. He talked about making bold choices and refining a scene until it genuinely moved people. We didn't hear a word about pencils or paintbrushes. In fact, Walt was famous for being a technologist, forever hunting for state-of-the-art tools, often inventing them himself to achieve the images he saw in his head. But he never defined animation by the tools. He defined it by whether the audience believed the character. His principles were timeless. The tools were not. That realization changed everything. We co-developed the Computer Animation Production System (CAPS) with a young Northern California company called Pixar, replacing hand-painted cels with CGI. In The Little Mermaid, the final scene shimmered with a dimensionality and light that the old process simply couldn't achieve. In Beauty and the Beast, the ballroom sequence moved with a cinematic sweep that placed the audience inside the emotion of the moment. In Aladdin, the Cave of Wonders felt vast and alive, and the Magic Carpet became an intricate, compelling character all its own. In The Lion King, the stampede carried a scale and intensity that raised the emotional stakes beyond anything we'd done before. Technology didn't diminish the craft, it expanded the canvas. It gave artists more room to create. A decade later, the canvas expanded again. When Disney released Pixar's Toy Story, it wasn't simply a technical milestone. It was proof that a fully computer-animated film could carry real emotional weight, that it could make audiences laugh, cry, and believe. At DreamWorks, we made the difficult decision to sunset hand-drawn animation and become a fully computer-animated studio. It was the right thing to do, but it was not without pain. It cost talented people their place in an industry where they had worked their whole lives. Some made the leap to the new tools and did the finest work of their careers. Some never did. Tools are never the point. The instruments change with every generation. What endures is taste and imagination. The magical ability to make an audience feel. One of the greatest storytellers of our generation, George Lucas, succinctly captured the eternal essence of this issue: “It’s not the how, it’s the why.” A Distinction With a Difference I asked one of the leading AI models a question that has been challenging me for months. What is the difference between reasoning and creating? Its answer changed how I think about almost everything happening in this industry. It said . . . Reasoning and creating are two distinct cognitive modes, though they also work together. Reasoning is fundamentally evaluative and analytical. It operates on what already exists: facts, premises, evidence. It moves toward a conclusion that was in a sense already implied by the input. Reasoning is constrained by logic and truth. Its goal is to arrive somewhere correct, not to invent somewhere new. Creating is fundamentally generative. It produces something that didn't exist before. And crucially, there's no single right answer waiting to be found. A blank page has infinite valid responses. Creation involves choices that can't be fully justified by logic alone. Taste, intuition and vision fill the gap where deduction runs out. Reasoning is what Silicon Valley has been perfecting. Creating is what Hollywood has been practicing for more than a century. AI today operates almost entirely on the reasoning side of the line. It can deduce, evaluate, optimize, and pattern-match brilliantly. And while it can create, there is a real distinction to being creative. What it doesn’t yet have is those things that make us human: empathy, devotion, serendipity, the kind of creativity that comes from a person trying to say something only they could say. When the bot generates a piece of art, it is not trying to communicate anything. It is statistics, not soul; it is emulating things that have been done. By contrast, human creativity isn’t about repeating patterns of zeros and ones; it is about doing something new. One day, AI may close this gap. Three years ago, the leaders building AI would have called what they are achieving today, improbable, if not impossible. Impossible is no longer improbable. Today, the line between reasoning and creating is real. Even the leading technologists acknowledge we are not there yet. There is no scientific path to crossing this divide that anyone in the field can articulate today. Understanding that gap is where we will find common ground. A Path Forward In 2016, I closed one chapter in Hollywood with the sale of DreamWorks and opened another in Northern California, co-founding WndrCo. We’ve backed more than 50 founders building the next generation of technology and watched how breakthroughs in Silicon Valley emerge, first as experiments, then as platforms, and finally as infrastructure that reshapes entire industries. It's worth remembering that the last great revolution in animation also came from the north. Pixar was a Northern California company, forged not in the conventions of the Hollywood studio system, but in the technological breakthroughs of Silicon Valley. I've spent years on both sides of this bridge. For sure, I don’t have all the answers (take Quibi, for one!). But, from my past and present vantage points of my long career, here is what I see . . . Brilliant people in Northern California building this technology have made something extraordinary. They have earned the right for the rest of us to be, if not believers, at least optimistic that what comes next will be remarkable. But they have not made an artist. The tools are powerful, but they are not what makes a story matter. That knowledge lives 350 miles to the south, inside people whose life's work has informed the very models you are building. The right path forward includes them by design, with credit, with consent, and with compensation. Build this with the storytellers. Not on top of them. Taste is not something that can be synthesized, it is uniquely human. At the same time, Hollywood needs to accept that AI is not going away. The energy they are spending trying to make it disappear is energy they are not spending deciding the terms on which it will exist. And the terms are everything. The north needs something from it that they cannot build and cannot buy: creativity. The kind that takes a blank page and conjures a single right answer where there was none and has held audiences for a century. Without it, the most powerful reasoning engine ever invented will still be missing the only thing that makes a story worth telling. The artists who learn to wield these new instruments will do things the engineers never dreamed of. They always have. Edison invented the motion picture but made terrible movies. It took Chaplin, Lloyd, Keaton and so many others to make movies emotional. Now, the canvas is about to expand yet again. We should decide now that we intend to paint on it. There are so many valuable lessons in history. This has happened many times before, and it was never settled by the technology. It was settled by the terms. Sousa did not stop the phonograph; he helped write the law that made sure composers got paid. And two years ago, when the writers and the actors walked out, they were fighting for the very things Sousa was fighting for in 1906. Consent, compensation, the basic recognition that human creative work has a price that must be paid. The terms of that fight are still being negotiated, but the principle is older than any of us. The tools-versus-no-tools argument is a trap. First, we must all agree that there should be terms. Then we can have the crucial debate about what fairness requires. What I Learned From Steve Jobs Years ago, Steve Jobs said, "It's in Apple's DNA that technology alone is not enough. It's technology married with the liberal arts, married with the humanities, that yields us the result that makes our hearts sing." He was describing a device. But he could just as easily have been describing this tale of two cities. What I See Coming Soon As the barriers and the costs come down, more films will get made, not fewer. Studios will get to take more risks. There will be more seats at the table, and very soon entirely new forms of storytelling. In the 1980s, animation was dismissed as a niche corner of the business. Today it is one of the most beloved and profitable forms of storytelling in the world. In live action, filmmakers like Steven Spielberg, James Cameron and Peter Jackson embraced new visual tools not as shortcuts, but as instruments, and expanded cinema in the process. Every time storytelling has met a genuine technological shift, from synchronized sound to color to computer animation, it has redefined the boundaries of the medium and grown larger in the process. Assuredly, I don’t have all the answers, but I am confident that the creative opportunities will expand yet again. How we come through this is a choice. The north has the new tools. The south has the creative soul. The best future will draw on the best of both worlds.
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John Ryu retweeted
This is a big enough problem that there's not just one startup idea here, but several. For example, there will probably be one variant meant to filter out agents, but another meant to welcome them in an orderly way. This also seems an idea you could build more on.
Bot detection & human verification will be one of the most urgent demands for businesses over the coming years. Agent swarms will suffocate every website and form; small companies and government websites are most vulnerable. There is a huge gap in the market for this right now. When we looked at what offerings were in the market to use at X, there was not a single company that brought together all the latest technologies so we had to do it all in-house.
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John Ryu retweeted
JPMorgan’s commodities team: “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”
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Precisely C.S. Lewis's point in The Screwtape Letters: the enemy doesn't need to ruin you, he only needs to distract you. Screwtape finds that a reliable way to lead a patient to hell is to distract him with jargon, for instance. Have the patient evaluate ideas not by their content but by their labels ensures that he never engages meaningfully with their content. Another method is to fix his attention on the "stream of immediate sense experiences," so that his mind is drawn away from universal issues and he no longer thoughtfully engages with things that matter. The path to hell is not so much paved by grand sins than it is by small, constant distractions from what really matters. The path to goodness begins with reclaiming your attention, and turning your eyes from the endless stream. Wasting time "doomscrolling" is not neutral. It distracts you from doing good in the world.
Simone Weil’s greatest insight was that attention is the foundation of morality and that letting your attention span degrade is the first step on the road to hell
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John Ryu retweeted
> get introduced to someone new > being told that they are high agency > ask if they mean breaking the rules and soiling the commons or figure out a way to push the pareto and create positive sum > she doesn't understand: "they're high agency sir" > meet the person > they're soiling the commons and externalizing internalities
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John Ryu retweeted
JUST IN: People aged 65 & older now outnumber children 5 & under worldwide for the first time in recorded history.
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John Ryu retweeted
Throwing rubbish in a landfill is (usually) better for the environment than recycling it. With few exceptions, recycling ends up emitting more CO2 and costing more money, while landfills are cheap and secure. - Recycling mid-tier plastics (like plastic bottles or butter tubs) costs thousands of dollars per ton of CO2 saved. It's cheaper to do direct air CO2 capture than that! And there is no shortage of plastic, nor any problem with sequestering it in the ground once we're done with it. - Modern landfills are extraordinarily secure and are *much* more than just big piles of trash. They capture 75%–95% of methane gas. Groundwater contamination is doesn't really happen with landfills built since 1990. A study of 31 landfills built since 1988 in NY found no adverse effect at all on local groundwater quality. - The crusade against single-use plastics has driven us to products that use far more materials and energy and would need to be used an absurd number of times to actually be an improvement. A steel straw needs to be used 150 times to be worth using. A ceramic mug needs to be used 1,000 times to beat a polystyrene cup. A cotton bag needs to be reused 173 times to beat single-use. - Some things ARE worth recycling. Recycling metal saves a huge amount of energy and material – recycling aluminium saves 95% of the energy spent on making fresh stuff. So we do a lot of it already: about 30% of steel worldwide is recycled. Modern, well-run landfills cause minimal environmental damage. We have plenty of space for them – less than 0.01% of the US is used for landfill and only about 0.02% of Germany. We can even build on top of old landfills, so the land area is not spent permanently. New in @WorksInProgMag, @robertwiblin and @chalmermagne on why it's usually best to just bury your trash. worksinprogress.co/issue/jus…
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IRAN CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR: OIL EXPORTS HAVE STOPPED Nasser Hemmati, Governor of the Central Bank of Iran: “At present, Iranian oil exports have stopped. We are no longer exporting any oil at all. This is a reality we acknowledge. The other problem is that we are also unable to access our own financial resources.” — via @Osint613
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*JANE STREET POSTED ROUGHLY $15B LOSS IN JULY: FT
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John Ryu retweeted
The most common way employees of my most successful companies describe the leader: “force of nature”.
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John Ryu retweeted
Jensen Huang publicly named who's winning the AI race. Not OpenAI. Not Anthropic. Not Google. Elon Musk. His reasoning wasn't personality. It was infrastructure math: - Tesla's AI factory is stacked with NVIDIA hardware - Tesla's road fleet is the largest world-data collection system on Earth - Musk owns the 3 verticals Jensen calls "the most important areas of AI": - xAI — foundation cognitive intelligence - Tesla — autonomous vehicles - Optimus — humanoid robotics "Collecting world data is very expensive. Elon has a great advantage." Read the sentence again. The CEO of the company that sells chips to every AI lab on Earth just picked one customer as the structural winner. Everyone else is renting compute and buying data. Musk built both from scratch. The next 5 years reward whoever owns the pipeline, not whoever ships the best benchmark.
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John Ryu retweeted
An internal version of Astra, @OpenAI’s next major model family, solved 10 major open problems in mathematics, quantum complexity, and theoretical computer science. We believe it will be a major step for scientific reasoning. openai.com/index/ten-advance…
10 proofs from our next major model Astra on long-standing open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science (also including new circuit lower bounds for computing the permanent!) GPT-5.6 has already enabled so much exciting work in math and science. Can’t wait to see what comes next!
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