Two weeks ago I wrote that the incident at RAF Fairford was most likely an Iranian operation. I also wrote that it was probably designed to be stopped, because its purpose was to send a message: keep letting American bombers fly from Fairford, and this is what you can expect. On the first point, Prime Minister Andy Burnham told Parliament yesterday that the plot was “highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard.” Twenty-nine countries, including the US, signed a joint statement backing that assessment, and the UK has sanctioned two Iranians, one of them the head of IRGC counterespionage. The evidence also supports the second point. Police found petrol in the vans but no explosives. One of the men reportedly dialled 999 himself before the arrests. Police were alerted to suspicious vans almost an hour before the farmer called, and President Trump has said US and UK intelligence had the suspects “under view for a long time.” All seven men arrested have been released on bail, and none has been charged. None of this fits a serious attempt to destroy aircraft. It does fit an operation meant to be caught within sight of the wire, so the threat was obvious and no one was hurt. American bombers had been flying strike missions against Iran from Fairford since March, and it was one of only two bases in Europe available to them, because Spain, France, Italy and Germany had all said no. In July the IRGC publicly named Fairford as a legitimate target. The plan worked. A week after the arrests, the US pulled every bomber off the base and flew them home. I expected the warning to be aimed at the new British government, but in the end it was Washington that acted on it. Tehran achieved this at almost no cost. No one was killed, the men involved are British, and Iran has denied everything. It has shown that it can reach into Britain through local proxies and affect where the US bases its aircraft. Other countries hosting American bombers will have noticed

Talking with @andymilburn8 about Iran, Yemen, and some larger questions about the state of American politics. youtube.com/live/yLkUHEVIgGc…

In this ep w/@jonathanhackett -The Pastrami on rye at Katz -B-1Bs evac the UK -Russian biolab mishap -Aircraft hijackings -John Chapman MOH -Sykes-Pecot and Syria -more... Why Did B1-B Bombers Suddenly Leave the UK? youtu.be/CZ-NX6YZgR8

Flydubai hijacking attempt, Iran-linked UK plots, and the guys reflect on the Iraq withdrawal. Apple pods ⬇️ podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas… Spotify ⬇️ open.spotify.com/episode/1YN… YouTube ⬇️ youtu.be/Cu0Y0cET23I @jonathanhackett @andymilburn8 @Mpolymer

We break down the suspected terror plot near RAF Fairford & whether Iran may have been behind it, plus the latest standoff over Hormuz, China’s role in supporting the IRGC, pressure on Saudi/Gulf allies, & whether nukes are even on the table anymore. youtu.be/zffDu2cxa0c