Software engineer | CI/CD + DevOps | AI in everything | Sports Models | Learning out loud.
Iowa
Joined October 2026
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Is anyone else here working on building their own sports models?
Two accounts I’ve seen that look to know there stuff: @davidsasser and @TheModelManSam.
Who else is out there worth a follow?
I've been working on my NFL models all season, but kept tweaking them over and over.. finally deciding that I just need to get these out and let them cook for a bit.
This project started back in 2020 using spiders to crawl nfl reference and feed them to scikit learn libraries in python to where we are now.
lines.jamespenning.dev
Two things here:
Simmons is unbelievably good. Sheesh.
@thefilmwatcher_ consistently puts out incredible analysis like this.
Made a breakdown of this move! Even found an example of it working despite the tackle dodging Simmons! It’s so effective - no way it doesn’t get called soon
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This is a fun site to poke around at. Lot of interesting stats on here.
The Team Identity graphics are so slick.
Excited to share Next Gen Trends.
Really proud of what our @NextGenStats team built with @codeandtheory and @awscloud to make the complexity of NFL schemes easier to understand.
It’s live and free to explore. Let me know what you think.
nfl.com/stats/ngs/trends
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One thing I didn’t expect with joining X was having so many people reach out to me.
I hardly ever received emails, but now I’m getting multiple a week asking for input / looking into their products.
If you’ve reached out to me and I’ve not gotten back to you, apologies.. I’ll be going through and following up on things today/tomorrow at some point!
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Only on this app can this type of interaction happen.
@X truly is goated.
Great question… saw this on my fyp… I was traded back in 2016 to the patriots from the Lions . I got a call from the Lions GM at the time saying I was traded (he forgot to tell me until the end of the call where I was traded to). You then get a call from the team that traded for you (patriots). They set a flight up with you as fast as possible. They want you on the first flight out essentially because they want/need you to get a physical done right away so the trade can go through or have a Crosby situation where they say “failed physical”. This to me is what fans don’t know . Properties are taking care of like anybody else moving for a job all by yourself. You can sell the house with a realtor if you bought one in the city you play in or renting you gotta pay the rest of the rent even if you are not living in it. The only thing when I was traded the team took care of was moving. Teams give you a certain amount of money for movers and shipping your car. Lastly , team takes care of about 10 days or 2 weeks paid for a hotel room until you can find your own living. This could have changed but I’m sure it’s the same. That’s how trades work.
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What’s your biggest degenerate moment sports betting?
I doubled/tripled/quadrupled down on the Wolves in the playoffs and lost my ass.
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One thing I see constantly on X is “copy this workflow immediately!” or “steal this!” and no one should ever do that.
What you should do instead is read through what they’re proposing, work through it with Claude, and define a workflow that works for you.
There are some truly crazy things I’ve seen people do that aren’t practical for most people.
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I went looking for early crowd picks on r/sportsbook, 2019 to 2025.
1,163,435 comments in football threads. 63,308 parsed picks, and 70% of them were posted less than 24 hours before kickoff.
Games where 10 or more people had picked early:
- 102 in 2019.
- 2 in 2024.
- 0 in 2025.
Looks like Reddit is dead!
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Today’s lesson: How to turn Elo ratings into an expected margin.
Hypothetical NBA game:
Home: 1520
Away: 1580
Home bonus: +60
Rest bonus for home: +60
Home minus away, then add the bonuses.
What's the adjusted gap? At 25 Elo per point, what margin does that imply?
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I see a few worrying lines.. but my favorite is the Bills vs Jets over. I think we see that line move by the end of the week.
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Okay.. this could be wild.
Create an MCP that connects to your database on you local and have your grok bots constantly be combing through finding edges
@bot can now connect to private MCP servers on your tailnet without exposing them to the public internet.
Powered by Tailscale OAuth apps, now GA, so you can build secure agent integrations, too.
Read more here: buff.ly/U1J9By1
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Claude code team is goated 🐐
We've given all Pro, Max, Ultra, and Team users one free full reset, across all models and limits. Use it anytime before December 10 at 2:00PM PT.
We recently fixed a few small issues that used more limits than intended, and the Fable resets didn't do much for those of you who'd already hit your weekly limits for all models. While these issues didn't affect everyone, we want to make up for the trouble.
You'll find it in Settings > Usage, or at clau.de/reset.
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What was the best edge you found and how long did it last?
Always interested to see where people have gone and what’s dried up.
One use case for @bot I like is for learning.
I have it give me a 10 minute reading lesson and a quick quiz. Today’s lesson was about Sample size, variance, and p-hacking.
You observe 54% over 100 independent games. Under a true rate of 50%, what’s the standard error, and how many standard errors above 50% is your result?
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Make sure you guys don’t mistake the Fable resets for a full reset!
Hmm yeah I can see how it’s confusing - it only resets the part of your weekly limit you used on Fable so if you haven’t used any Fable your weekly limit stays the same. It’s in the tooltip but easy to miss, we can make this more clear in the UI
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