kidponga (@kidponga) header
kidponga (@kidponga) profile picture

icarus is icarus for a reason (views my own, nothing I say, write or xeet (tweet) is financial advice, dyor)

Joined September 2017
whoever is running the simulation has pumped it into overdrive today
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kidponga retweeted
live from ICE 3Q26 earnings
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the volume TAM for ice/tradexyz markets is micro futures which does ~$200B in daily volume 25% of that seems to be an optimistic base case. do the math
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no confirmations in this post, but if you take this at face value, TradeXYZ raised capital in HYPE no more questions re: alignment
Of the 3.75M HYPE sold OTC last month, 3.125M HYPE was staked on one wallet with the Hyperliquid Strategies x Unit validator. The remaining 625K HYPE was sent to another wallet on HyperEVM, where it stayed inactive for almost three weeks before sending 1 HYPE to a new wallet yesterday. hyperevmscan.io/tx/0x390596b… That new wallet was funded the same day, through a few hops, by a wallet with multiple links to wallets used by TradeXYZ to buy tickers on Hyperliquid. The 625K HYPE has now been transferred to the new wallet, moved from HyperEVM to Hypercore. hypurrscan.io/address/0x5a4c… Not 100% sure what this means or why the HYPE was split, but my main theory is that ICE was indeed the buyer of the 3.75M HYPE, which remains unconfirmed, and that the 625K HYPE may have been transferred to TradeXYZ as part of ICE’s investment. The onchain link strongly suggests that the 625K HYPE belongs to TradeXYZ.
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wow
I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.
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In May, ICE and CME were lobbying the CFTC and Congress to curb Hyperliquid over its anonymous oil perps. Those oil, gold and S&P contracts are TradeXYZ’s. ICE has gone from asking regulators to rein in the venue to buying into TradeXYZ traderliquid
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never fade
Once again, hyperliquid:native is super attractive even from a deep value perspective, especially at a time where I see a lot of uncertainty with regards to the "return profile" hyperliquid:native still has to offer. With roughly two cycles of AQAv2 complete, netting Hyperliquid ~$30M in revenue, growing crypto volumes boosting daily fees to ~$2M/day, and ~$300M in forward unlocks sold OTC (all of which have been re-staked), trailing ARR is now ~$1B (on a 90D trailing basis).
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shoku mode
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kidponga retweeted
having multiple levers that when pulled correctly, can significantly impact the growth trajectory of the platform as well as the revenue engine is an underrated aspect of hyperliquid and the adjacent ecosystem A few recent levers: - AQAv2 (stablecoin monetization) and priority fees are direct new revenue levers - HIP-3, and more specifically, growth mode have been serious protocol expansion levers and scaling down growth mode becomes another very valuable revenue lever - HPC as well as HSI have been and remains very strong levers for regulatory clarity and a strong Hyperliquid presence in the U.S. If you look hard enough, I'm sure you can find many more. These levers offer significant step function growth opportunities for Hyperliquid, and as a result, $HYPE
This paves the way for growth mode to be scaled down on a per market basis, rather than a blanket off-switch. This would allow for deployers to increase the fees upto 30x total on specific markets that are doing high volume and have deep OI. Will be interesting to see the strategy here from Trade[XYZ] on which markets do they scale down growth mode on, but I would estimate we start to see bumps in fees to hyperliquid:native buybacks from HIP-3 soon hyperliquid
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shoku mode
NYSE OWNER ICE PARTNERS WITH TRADE.XYZ TO BRING PERPETUAL FUTURES PRODUCTS INTO REGULATED US MARKETS: BBG
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Slowly, but surely, HIP-4 is growing. HIP-4 volumes over the week have been ~20% of Novig volumes and 8.2% of Polymarket volumes Hyperliquid
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In crypto, the liquid token market over the last 18-24 months grew increasingly allergic to a three things: 1. token overhang via unlocks 2. token overhang via inefficient emissions 3. siphoning of protocol value away from token holders As a result, we saw a stage of extreme token nihilism followed by a set of projects that identified they need to prove to the market that 1-3 are being solved first. Buybacks solve all three, with a single mechanism. So, in crypto, when a company starts doing buybacks, it is not because they are unable to innovate anymore, but rather, a simple signal to the market that they can now begin to trust the asset issued by the protocol (token). teapawt.org/kidponga/article/20113…
This is fundamentally flawed analysis The most junior analyst on Wall Street knows that when a company starts doing stock buybacks, it's because they can't innovate anymore By this logic, FTT was a good bid Why should I buy a token that can't attract new marginal buyers?
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ppl need to study smarter
Everyone who's looking at $AERO price post update thinks it was a failure. Everyone who's looking at global market share, holder revenue, efficiency of emissions, volume share growth on new chains etc thinks it was a success. dromos.kitchen/dashboards/ae… Given that a lot of features aren't even live yet (MEV recapture, Autopilot, emissions migrated and properly directed, aggregators picking it up etc), I think we're sitting at the inflection point of price diverging from fundamentals. And the fundamentals are only going to get better from here as the update goes fully live; we're currently seeing the absolute floor of the new model's performance. Think we're going to look back in a few weeks/months and realize that the market lazily decided that bad PA during a broader slump meant the update was a failure before letting the actual data come in. Adding more $AERO here. If the market is in for a worse slump, it'll probably bleed disproportionately due to increasingly losing this narrative battle, but I think if you're constructive (i.e not a 🏳️‍🌈🐻), it has great R:R here at $0.65-0.70.
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Does OpenRouter explicitly authorize your resale of model API access through your managed account, notwithstanding Section 7 of their ToS?
Replying to @sk1337le @kidponga
we're a downstream provider of openrouter inference, like any other ai saas such as higgsfield. what trades on the book is CREDIT, a token worth $1 of usage on orbio, and don't resell keys.
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my brother in christ, Pump dot fun is printing millions of dollars a day, buying back their own token, and still, many on the timeline are struggling to understand why it trades at such a low multiple to earnings so if someone were to reverse engineer pump fun and OS it, it would be worth 2-3x whatever it can make in fees, sustained over 12 months, at least do the math, zero
If someone were to reverse engineer pumpfun and open source it. How much would that be worth?
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$PURR As of September 30, 2026 - 14,430,697 shares beneficially owned. - 5.2% of the common-stock class. - Sole voting power over 14,069,284 shares. Previously, as of June 30, 2026 - 9,880,560 shares beneficially owned. - 7.3% of the class. BlackRock’s reported share count increased by 4,550,137 shares, approximately +46% sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar…
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