Political philosopher. Wannabe political theologian, political economist, and AI researcher. Incurably affable. Author, All the Kingdoms of the World.

Bowling Green, OH
Joined November 2008
Kevin Vallier retweeted
It's almost like conservatives aren't acting like deontologists, natural lawyers, or virtue ethicists, but crude utilitarians. What's a little corruption if we get our preferred policy outcome 🤷‍♂️ it's almost like Jesus said it's not worth gaining the world & losing your soul...
1
1
6
338
Kevin Vallier retweeted
Lottocracy is all the rage among political philosophers, but it’s natural to be uneasy about an untried system. Advocates cite successful real-world mini-publics as evidence. How much confidence should these give us? I examine this in my latest paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
6
15
2
57
3,370
Kevin Vallier retweeted
Can you explain why you photoshopped the results page?
34
25
18
1,108
67,608
Kevin Vallier retweeted
Wow! Make Amy Acton governor. “I am making a promise to Ohioans...that no one in my state will ever, ever be invisible to me."
104
838
46
2,511
53,618
Kevin Vallier retweeted
A great day! So happy to share MathEconLib, bringing machine-checked proofs to economic theory. We’d love for folks to dive into the Lean 4 repo and build MathEcon! @leanprover @skominers @bocowgill @axiommathai
We are open sourcing MathEconLib and made it a lot more polished than before, in collaboration with leading economists! Axiom Math co-founded the project and continues to support its development. We welcome other organizations’ support - please reach out to the devs about this!
2
6
25
2,846
Kevin Vallier retweeted
By every measure, Opus 4.8 beats human experts as peer reviewers in a study of 124 Harvard social science papers covering a range from statistical analyses to formal models to qualitative work. As academics, we need to figure out how to adapt the practice of science to AI, fast.
258
261
90
1,709
104,002
Kevin Vallier retweeted
If one must sell one’s soul and reject decency to be elected to office in Ohio, then I praise my Savior and Protector that @ohiogop pushed Dave out of the race a year before the primary. Lord forgive us - and save our republic
61
73
13
823
189,044
Now the last two GOP Ohio governors have condemned Ramaswamy's ad. I guess Vance is ashamed of them.
I was asked today on MSNOW about the recent ad in the Ohio governor’s race. It’s completely inappropriate and has no place in American politics. It should be taken off the air, and those responsible should apologize. Here’s what I had to say.
2
1
14
1,133
Kevin Vallier retweeted
NEW: Gov. @MikeDeWine asks Ramaswamy to take down attack ad featuring Amy Acton's mother. "The ad, on its face, is deeply, deeply troubling," he said. "It's wrong to run this ad." However, DeWine says he won't rescind his endorsement of Ramaswamy
84
114
62
455
44,558
New paper project.
1
3
1
15
810
This struck me as entirely sincere. And deeply sad. No matter our politics, there have to be some places we aren't willing to go to win.
Backfiring on him spectacularly as he deserves.
10
75
3
2,185
118,680
Kevin Vallier retweeted
New in Model Constitution! The original AI constitutions were designed to govern individual AIs. Now they have to govern entire organizations of them. Are AI constitutions still useful in the multiagent era? Organizational misalignment can emerge through drift, miscoordination, and misunderstanding even when all the individuals within an organization are aligned. And AI swarms are going to start interacting with each other in high stakes scenarios outside of human oversight. But human constitutionalism has tools for this. Constitutions govern complex agglomerations of people acting with significant independence through rules of delegation, authority, and enforcement. I argue that multiagent AI requires a constitutional foundation for the four tools of governance that we use with human organizations: alignment, control, monitoring, and review. The constitutions need to allocate authority and create comprehensible structures within agent organizations, not just seek to align individuals. Claude’s Constitution, the Model Spec, and Microsoft’s draft Code of Conduct have made a start, but there is much more to do. And no single lab’s constitution can govern how its agents interact with everyone else’s. Madison wrote in Federalist 51 that “If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary.” Perhaps, but a structure of government would likely still be. It is worth pursuing the traditional goal of alignment, building angels. But let’s also write constitutions for a world in which alignment is incomplete and controls are necessary, or in which even angels sometimes disagree. Post here: modelconstitution.com/p/cons…
1
5
1
51
2,859
Kevin Vallier retweeted
I am happy to announce an opening for a student researcher on my team at GDM for 2027, based in London - for a project at the frontier of multi-agent coordination, in duration of 3 months with a possibility of an extension.
5
22
3
211
15,223
Kevin Vallier retweeted
Why the hell was the Ohio GOP so quick to crown Vivek as the nominee? If it was Yost, Tressel or literally anyone else, this race wouldn't even be close
130
51
12
1,438
38,120
Kevin Vallier retweeted
🚩 When Polymarket or Kalshi says there's a 70% chance something will happen, should we believe it? Excited to share our new paper, just published in PNAS, in which we examined more than ONE MILLION forecasts from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus, spanning 12 domains and forecasting horizons ranging from hours to years. The main finding is striking: Prediction markets and collective forecasting platforms are remarkably well calibrated. When they assign events a 70% probability, those events really do happen about 70% of the time. And this pattern holds surprisingly well across different platforms, domains, and forecasting horizons. But there's an important twist. When we looked more closely, we discovered systematic biases in some of the domains where forecasting matters most (wars, elections). For decades, psychologists have documented how poorly humans often reason about probability and uncertainty. Our findings offer an encouraging counterpoint: When judgments and information are aggregated, we can achieve a surprisingly accurate understanding of an uncertain future. That doesn't mean we can predict what will happen next with certainty. But it does mean that we can be remarkably good at estimating how uncertain the future really is. This work was a great collaboration. The data for this project was meticulously collected for years by Justin Dickerson, the project was led by Hilla Shinitzky and Maayan Peer, with @mattansb leading the analyses. 📄 Read the paper: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.26… #Forecasting #Polymarket #Kalshi #DecisionScience #PNAS
30
143
34
798
53,428
This will require using AI to referee. Or at least to help humans referee. We're too slow otherwise.
It's actually insane that there are papers coming out about AI capabilities evaluations using two-year-old models. We have to reduce the length of time to get studies published or academic publishing will have to become completely irrelevant for AI.
1
6
950
I know I have many Anthropic hater followers, but can't you at least admire how reasonable Dario is? What other CEO is this measured?
Thank you for this, @_NathanCalvin. I appreciate and am a fan of the investigative work you’ve done on behalf of AI safety and believe your comments are coming from a constructive, honest place, and that it benefits the public to have people whose job is to scrutinize the actions of frontier AI companies. I think something would be wrong if companies of the size of Anthropic didn’t get harshly criticized basically every day; strong antibodies against corporate power are a healthy feature of a free society, and especially so when issues of the gravity of the one we’re facing are at play. I also do agree that some of the examples you cite were mistakes by Anthropic. That said, I disagree with the thrust of your post. At the core, a good fraction of the things you criticize are consequences of Anthropic’s basic theory of change that we have held for many years. Our strategy has always been what I’ve called the “race to the top” — by showing how it’s possible to build the technology responsibly, we can raise the bar for the entire industry. The forces that drive the race to the top are hugely more effective if the company practicing them is at the frontier; that’s one lesson I’ve learned repeatedly. And looking at that strategy as a whole, I’m proud of our track record and stand by it. I believe that if we take a list of things that Anthropic did in the past year that were pro-safety and commercially costly to us, they far outweigh the list you’ve made, while at the same time I also disagree with some of the items on your list. Here are some things Anthropic has done, in the same period you’ve cited (the last year), which were very costly to us commercially while having strong safety benefits: 1. We played a key role in SB53 (and other state laws), at a time when doing so was politically perilous to the company and AI regulation was very unpopular. We in fact argued for a stronger version of SB53 than was ultimately passed; there were a lot of stakeholders and we were not the limiting factor in the strength of the bill that was passed. 2. We have very strong biological safeguards on our models, because we’ve seen concerning results in bio uplift trials and even seen and blocked potential attempts to misuse our models for bioweapons (as seen in our threat intelligence report from a few weeks ago). This is a very serious threat that we want to have zero tolerance for. But having very low false negatives means having significant false positives (despite months of effort on our part to improve the classifiers), enough so that biologists joke about how restrictive our classifiers are, and competitors sometimes sell against us by touting their more permissive bio capabilities. This has been very painful to us in an area where we care a lot about supporting an ecosystem of Claude users (biomedical science; and it is particularly frustrating to me as a biologist), but it’s the right thing to do and we intend to keep doing it. 3. Similarly, we first had Mythos-class models in February but didn’t make them generally available until June (when we had stronger cyber safeguards in place). We only offered them to a limited set of partners in order to focus on cyberdefense. It would have been much more economically rational to simply release the model to everyone. We likely sacrificed a significant chunk of a several-month model lead. But because of this, many companies secured their cyber infrastructure before the deluge of widely available cyber-capable models. Of course there are ways it could have gone better or been run better, but this was what we were aiming to do. 4. I advocated forcefully and publicly, in my essay Policy on the AI Exponential in June of this year, for the government to have the power to block model releases. Back then this was still outside or maybe on the edge of the Overton window, though I understand the window has moved since then. We were attacked intensely for this. 5. I don’t want to re-ignite conflict, but the events of February 2026 are a strong example. It is clear that our public stance could have seriously damaged the company’s future. 6. We’ve continued to advocate for export controls on chips and chipmaking equipment to China, because we think it allows democracies to negotiate from a position of strength on AI safety agreements. We’ve done this despite problems it’s created for us with industry partners who hold very different views and on whom we are very dependent. 7. As far as I’m aware we were the first, and still only, frontier company to restrict the sale of AI services to PRC-controlled companies, including those operating through third countries (otherwise a major loophole). We’ve therefore forfeited significant short-term business to prevent fueling AI platforms and applications that would help the CCP’s military and intelligence services. We are also cracking down on distillation; generally, distillation is not a major threat to us commercially, but like chip exports it has concerning national security and safety implications, so we expend significant energy and company resources to address it. 8. As you mentioned, we’ve put out a lot of reports, announcements, long model cards, public advocacy, etc, all trying to inform the public about the risks of AI. These involve a level of detail and effort that would be implausible for a purely profit-maximizing company. 9. Just this week, we announced we were putting 5% (and possibly more over time) of the company into a public benefit fund. All of these decisions came with very substantial costs to us. To be fair, those that involved holding back or restricting access to frontier capabilities also had a broader cost — for example, the public might otherwise have benefitted from faster progress in biology, so I am not saying that our decisions were without tradeoffs — but they were not driven by profit-seeking. For each decision, you can come up with ulterior motives that could have driven us — I think it is a general truth that any decision, on any topic, can always be portrayed as a nefarious scheme. But most of those end up being pretty farfetched or don’t fully make sense if you actually examine them closely. For example, it is deeply implausible that it would be a shrewd business move to block a large swath of research biology in order to do the work ourselves and compete with our customers; we expect the benefit to the ecosystem to greatly exceed the work Anthropic does itself, and for the two to complement each other. It is not in Anthropic’s interest to be perceived as unfriendly to biologists. Our Life Sciences Verification Program, which gives vetted biology professionals access to our models, also refutes this idea. Of course, a different set of people will see this and make a different criticism: that Anthropic shouldn't be making decisions about who gets access to what in the first place. I agree, in the sense that ideally the government would be making these decisions, and that’s why we advocate for regulation. But for now we are forced to make them, and enabling bioterrorism isn’t a better option. I think that even if I conceded every item in your list, I would happily hold up mine next to it; I don’t think it’s a close call. That is of course partly subjective and different things are important to different people. Maybe one way you could object is that several of the items above relate to AI misuse and not loss-of-control; if you think the latter is much more important than the former, that might change your calculus. But this is not Anthropic’s view — we view both as serious issues. You can also disagree with our decisions, as many have, but they are consistent. But I also disagree with at least some of your list. Several items don’t represent a deviation from Anthropic’s strategy or values at all, once we postulate the “race to the top” strategy that requires being a frontier AI company. Your items 1-4 are all simply examples of what it means to compete at the frontier, and we stand by them, both in the sense that they are transparently ordinary things to do as part of that strategy, and that we stand by the strategy as a whole. To be fair, there are important questions worth confronting (and that we are confronting) about what to do when the AI-driven acceleration gets fast enough that it is hard for safety to keep up. We are nearing that point and that’s what’s driving some of our thinking about “pacing.” But 1-4 are actions taken before that point and should be perfectly expected based on Anthropic’s strategy as a company. Of course it is possible to disagree with that strategy, but that’s a more fundamental disagreement that you could have had any time over the last few years. I agree we could have handled your items 7, 8, and 9 better. All fall into the category of “rhetoric or policy communication that wasn’t carefully written or resulting from fast-changing circumstances not propagating from one team to another fast enough.” This kind of thing happens a lot in large organizations (Anthropic is over 5,000 people), and doesn’t even necessarily represent a failure or mistake of any single person. I am of course the CEO, and I take responsibility. The volume of communication from Anthropic is enormous and if these are the worst examples, I think we’re frankly doing pretty well, though I will continue to work hard to make sure we do even better. Your 5th item (the change to our RSP) is the most substantive item, and people can debate this, but I think that the old, more rigid RSP created a lot of situations where we were technically required to do something that required a lot of effort but in retrospect wasn’t very important for safety, as well as not covering some of the most important things. Our current RSP’s focus on transparency brought things like risk reports and roadmaps, and its emphasis on independent external review laid the groundwork for even more intensive embedded evaluation, all of which I think have been valuable in driving a race to the top. In the original announcement in September 2023, we described the RSP as an “early iteration that we [would] build on” and said that “rapid iteration…will almost certainly be necessary.” I understand that changing plans is always a move that creates justifiable scrutiny — I just don’t think we ever represented that we wouldn’t do so. Relating to your 6th item (having an FCF in addition to our RSP), I know our intent is to meet the letter and spirit of our regulatory obligations (via our FCF) while also remaining able to experiment with more novel approaches to risk management that go beyond what the law currently requires (via our RSP). I promise to look into it further, as it’s a complex issue and it is possible we are not weighing the considerations in the right way. Overall, although Anthropic has made plenty of mistakes as an organization — including some of the items on your list — I feel that we have repeatedly taken serious and substantive actions counter to our bottom line and that there is a significant negativity bias distorting assessments like the one you are making above. We’ll always try to do better but, again, I am extremely proud of our track record and stand by it. I will have more to say soon about how we are going to further live our values in this moment of rapid change.
2
16
1,240
Kevin Vallier retweeted
Not laughing. Just seeing what we tried to tell everyone back then. He’s a bad guy. It’s a shame he continues to get away with it.
Nikki Haley and the Haley girls must be laughing their tits off tonight. LOL. OMG. Vivek FAIL.
727
1,433
138
20,180
1,530,942