Are Small Models Really a Threat? The Anthropic Fear Factory just released a new report warning that small models may be only months away from self-replicating across cheap IoT devices like off-brand Android TV boxes and smart ovens. They say such an AI worm would be hard to shut down since there’s no central kill switch. We’ve gone from “The Terminator is coming” to “your toaster might kill you.” But the experiments don’t support the dramatic headlines. They ran a 26B model across 15 $55 TV boxes at 0.39 tokens per second. The end-to-end test used emulated devices with deliberately open ADB ports, so the “hacking” step was trivial. The capable model often ran on a separate server. Agents were harnessed and told to propagate. This is not proof of autonomous rogue AI worms in the wild. Nor is the threat even novel. Worms that do this without AI already exist. Mirai in 2016 scanned for default credentials and built massive DDoS botnets. Kimwolf has infected over two million devices, mostly cheap Android TV boxes, by hitting open ADB ports. Small models don’t currently add much that matters on these targets. The bottleneck has never been figuring out the device. It’s the huge number of devices that ship with open ports, default passwords, and no patching. Traditional worms already exploit that at scale. A practical attacker would use the best models available offline to design a better traditional worm, then ship the lean binary. You get the intelligence benefit at design time without dragging a slow, heavy model along with every infection. Embedding a weak model in the payload is the worse option for anyone who actually wants the largest, fastest botnet. The timing of Anthropic’s latest scare campaign is hard to ignore. The day before, Brian Armstrong posted that Coinbase fine-tuned an open-weight small model (Qwen-3.5-9B) on proprietary fraud data. It beat frontier models, including Anthropic’s own Opus 4.5, while being faster and much cheaper. In testing it cut fraudulent transactions by about 30%. This is the emerging pattern. For narrow enterprise workloads you don’t need a general superintelligence. You need a small specialist model trained on your own data. Cheaper to run, especially as compute gets tighter, and often better on the metric that matters. That is a direct threat to the frontier-company model of selling access to ever-larger general models. Safety advocates should be welcoming this development. If the real concern is existential risk from ever-larger frontier systems — the ones that could theoretically do sustained autonomous R&D or become hard to control — then a shift toward smaller specialized models is the safer outcome. Small models specialized on fraud detection or support tickets are not pushing the frontier. They are not in the category of systems that could become a new species. The theoretical loss-of-control risk is created by models getting bigger and more generally capable. Safety advocates focused on those risks should welcome companies having a cheaper alternative to constantly scaling general models. Instead we get dramatic warnings about small models at the exact moment they are starting to take real enterprise share from closed-model companies like Anthropic.

Pride – The Engineers of Human Souls. Pride is not the craftsman’s satisfaction in good work. That kind of pride built cathedrals. Pride is the certainty that you know better than other people how they should live. Pride is looking at a society and seeing a machine – with yourself as the engineer. Pride is impatience with reality. Reality is slow, messy, full of people who want different things. So pride replaces it with a plan. Pride "loves" humanity and despises people. Humanity never argues back. Pride is blind in one specific way: it cannot see what it does not know. Hayek called it the fatal conceit – the belief that a few clever people can know what millions know, each about his own work, his own family, his own street. Pride wears the mask of compassion. "For your own good" – the most dangerous words in politics. C.S. Lewis warned that the worst tyranny is the one exercised sincerely for the good of its victims – because its enforcers sleep with a clear conscience. Pride never admits a mistake. A failed plan was sabotaged, betrayed, underfunded – never wrong. So the next plan is bigger. And pride never lives in its own design. The architect of the housing estate lives in the old town. The reformer of the school sends his children somewhere else. The planner never pays for his plan. Now scale it up. Plato’s ideal city abolished the family among its rulers and told the people a useful lie. The French revolutionaries redesigned even the clock – ten hours a day; it lasted barely a year and a half. Trotsky promised that under socialism the average man would rise to the level of Aristotle, Goethe or Marx; what came out was a man queuing for bread and informing on his neighbor. Le Corbusier wanted to raze the heart of Paris for identical towers; his ideas shaped the grim estates on the edge of every European city – designed for a new man, inhabited by real ones. Today the same pride works in committees, redesigning language, the family and what children must learn about themselves. Quieter than a revolution. The same certainty. The West’s best tradition starts from the opposite place. Socrates: the wisest man knows that he does not know. Chesterton: never take down a fence until you know why it was put up. Society is not a machine. It is a living thing – grown, not built. The statesman should be a gardener, not an engineer. A free society does not abolish pride. It converts it: be as proud as you like of what you build – your house, your company, your family – and let reality judge it. The planner is proud of what he designs for everyone else, and never has to live in it. The cure is the oldest one: know what you don’t know. And let people live their own lives.

Starship S40. The first Starship to travel to space and return to site in the history of the program. What an honor it was to follow her this morning as she completed her 75-day journey back home. 📷: Sony A7RV Lens: Sony 200-600mm G