My thesis is simple, Bitcoin is being positioned as a new source of collateral in a world of decaying FIAT. That is my base case. If that plays out we easily arrive at $1M+ Bitcoin. I don't think that the FIAT world will crumble, or the markets will break, or that all other assets will go to zero. We will simply see a new asset financialized, much like real estate and other asset classes were financialized in the past. The FIAT system needs constant growth, to self preserve. And new collateral sources enable new currency units to be created. That's the incentives and when you see the way TradFi has turned there tune and the launch of BTC backed mortgages and other BTC backed loans, you can see the signals starting to stack. That's why I'm all in on BTC. Yes it's a concentrated bet, yes it's volatile, no it hasn't been easy. But tracking all the things that have developed since the approval of the ETF, tells me this is a very likely outcome. The doom narrative of the FIAT world dying and Hyperbitcoinization is not a non zero chance of happening either. I just think the incentives align more towards it being a store of value/new source of collateral. But IF Hyperbitcoinization does happen, well....

I'm $BTC class of 24. I have a very high level of conviction that $BTC will continue to succeed and grow in both adoption and market cap. Because of that conviction I'm basically all in with ~90% allocation. But it is so tiresome to get on X and read posts about how this is the last opportunity to buy $BTC sub $100k, $90k etc. These posts drive engagement, so content creators constantly use this narrative. But the truth is none of us know and these matter of fact posts can drive people to irresponsible decisions. I understand having conviction and being bullish, we have good reason to be. But if this bear market has taught me anything is that nobody trully knows what the market is going to do. Yes there's probabilities, trends and cycles that one can look at. But complete certainty is foolish because anything can happen at any moment. Be mindful of who you follow and never put yourself in a position where you could end up in trouble, because you read that we were about to moon next week.

This is exactly what I was talking about in regards to closing my trade. Those massive outflow days tend to have follow through.

This reminds me of @GrantCardone model of using cashflow from real estate to buy more bitcoin:native. Ultimately, capital will flow to where it’s treated best and as more market participants realize that fiscal dominance is at play, I expect more capital to continue to flow to Bitcoin in all sorts of ways.

bitcoin:native I closed this trade out this morning. Yesterdays sell off was strong and it was accompanied by heavy outflows to the ETF. The ETF flows have been signal in the past of larger moves to come. Idk man on the one hand bitcoin:native is holding up despite so much weakness in the stock market and that’s great. But at the same time would it really be a surprise if we see a sell off down to ~$76k? Or lower? I still have my LEAP at play, along with my stack of shares in case we’re ready to rip higher. I’m still learning about selling puts and I’m okay with experimenting until I build confidence. For now I’ll take back my capital and continue to observe.

Selfishly I hope the AI trade is entering a bear market, while $BTC enters a bull market. If that happens I'll be selling calls on my $IBIT stack on the way up and using the premiums to stack $SPCX & $NVDA. A man can dream.

Gotta say, watching the AI trade unwind while $BTC holds $80K is pretty amazing. I remember watching $BTC begin it's descend last October while the AI trade was in full motion. I was in denial at first, then I was coping, then I got worried, then I got scared and ultimately it was a little depressing. I'm seeing a lot of cope on the timeline. Not too many people are worried. I'm thinking this unwind is just getting started.

Very interesting

$BTC This is some serious chop. But I'm calm. My $IBIT calls are more then a year out, so I'm okay to sit through this. My $43 put is a month out and if I have to pick up 100 shares at that price, I'll do so gladly.

Crazy to see this, because we just went through this with BTC and AI related hacks. $BTC really does lead in so many ways.

They say the first $100k is the hardest. $200k BTC on the horizon.

The money printer will not be put away, in fact it’s being used more and more frequently. I’ll keep stacking bitcoin:native

The bull is here.

bitcoin:native So far this week we’ve seen; 1. Blackrock file for a new Bitcoin ETF. It’s not pure spot, but it’s another financial instrument running on BTC. 2. Biggest BTC ETF inflows since October of last year. 3. JPM predicting that BTC will continue to be the best performing asset over the next 10 years. All of this on the back of a huge correction on the AI trade, while $BTC held $80k. I feel very comfortable selling this $43 put here. Worst case scenario I end up with 100 more shares of $IBIT at a roughly 8% discount to today’s prices. I’ll be a buyer down there if I need to be.

All while the AI trade is unwinding. What happens next?

Bullish.

In hindsight it will be obvious

This is insanity 🤯 $TSLA