$OPEN Great take - this is what I had
Sure seems like capitulation as we revert to the mean
The complete $OPEN investor experience in one chart.
🚀 Take off
😎 Enthusiasm
🤑 Greed
🤡 Delusion
🙉 Denial
🪤 Bull trap
😰 Fear
💀0Capitulation
🪦 Despair
And somewhere along the way, “long term investing” became a coping mechanism.
🔑 Which phase are we in now?
Latest fractal view on $IREN
Look for a break above 29.5 and continuation to clear the downtrend
Otherwise the fractal shows the last shoe drops around the $20-21 mark - right where prior support and the bottom of the acceleration channel meets.
Any number of new events could price that lower. More fud. Another offering. A cancelled contract.
There's no exact science here. Just a potential roadmap to take into consideration
Let's see how this plays out,
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
If you've ever wondered why smart TVs are so cheap, this is why.
@log4j rooted his Samsung and found an always-on hot mic, automatic content recognition, geolocation, network mapping, ad targeting and user profiling, shared with Samsung's "400 partners".
A lot of it can be blocked in <15 min, wrote a basic guide below.
What your TV is doing
The main culprit is ACR (automatic content recognition). Your TV screenshots what's on screen, fingerprints it, and sends it home to build your ad profile. Samsung does it every 500ms, LG every 10ms [1].
What is insane: it happens on connected devices too.
Plug in your laptop, your console, your work machine, and your TV can fingerprint that via HDMI [1].
He also found that if your Samsung doesn't have a mic, it'll look for one from a connected soundbar or bluetooth device.
xitter.cf/log4j/status/211376224…
It's on by default, and you likely agreed to it on the setup screen you clicked through in 10 seconds.
Step 1: Turn off ACR
Samsung: Terms & Privacy → Viewing Information Services
LG: Live Plus
Vizio: Viewing Data
Roku: "Use info from TV inputs"
Sony/Google TV: Samba Interactive TV
Menus vary by model, but those are the names to look for. While you're in there, opt out of interest-based ads, reset your advertising ID, decline every optional privacy agreement, turn off voice recognition, and delete apps you never open.
Step 2: Give smart devices their own network
Put the TV, cameras, speakers and vacuum on your router's guest/IoT network. The logic is simple: these devices rarely get patched. If one gets compromised (getting drastically more frequent with AI), it shouldn't be able to see your other devices or home network.
Step 3: Block trackers for the whole house with DNS-level filtering
NextDNS (cloud-based) is easy and has a solid free plan. Pi-hole is a little bit more work if you prefer self hosting. For simplicity we'll focus on the former.
1. Sign up at nextdns.io (free tier is plenty)
2. Privacy tab: add a blocklist (OISD is a good bet) and turn on Native Tracking Protection for Samsung, LG, Roku, Amazon (see attached image)
3. Setup tab: copy your endpoint
4. Paste it into your router's DNS settings as DNS-over-HTTPS/TLS (or use the IPs + "Link IP" if your router only does plain DNS)
5. Bonus: block outbound port 53 except to your router. Some devices hardcode their own DNS to get around you
Then open the NextDNS logs and watch how often your TV phones home. It's eye-opening. If an app or update breaks, find the domain in the logs and allowlist it.
Why they do this
TV prices are down 97% since 2000 [2]. Most of that is better manufacturing and brutal competition. But once margins on the hardware hit zero, the cost moved to you.
In Q3 2024, Vizio lost $6.7M selling TVs and made $115.8M in gross profit from ads and viewing data [3]. They've said on earnings calls that they keep TV prices low to grow the audience they sell to advertisers. Walmart bought them in 2024.
This isn't a conspiracy theory either. Vizio paid $2.2M to the FTC in 2017 for tracking 11 million TVs without consent. Last December, Texas sued Samsung, LG, Sony, Hisense and TCL over ACR. Samsung and LG have since agreed to stop collecting that data without explicit consent [4].
TL;DR
1. ACR off
2. Ads + voice off
3. Smart devices on their own network
4. NextDNS filtering on the router
Sources:
[1] ACR study: arxiv.org/abs/2409.06203
[2] Cost of US consumer goods: aei.org/economics/chart-of-t…
[3] Vizio Q3 2024: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
[4] Texas v. Samsung: texasattorneygeneral.gov/new…
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
US midterms. 10 days away.
I went back 76 years and ran the $SPX numbers myself.
19 out of 19. Every single post-midterm period GREEN.
Smallest gain: +2.23%.
Largest gain: +29.51%.
Not one negative return since 1950.
History doesn't guarantee the next move, but you can't ignore 19 consecutive winners.
2026 is up next.
$SPY $QQQ @Optuma
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
Overall hedge fund net positioning according to Goldman has dropped to levels we haven’t seen outside of liberation day in the past five years.
While US Long/Short Fund gross leverage is at the 56th percentile one-year (and the 90th five-year percentile), US net leverage saw “the largest weekly decline since Apr ’25 (week of Liberation Day) and the 4th largest weekly decline in the past five years to 43.7%” which is the 0 percentile for both the one and five-year lookbacks.
The US Fundamental long/short ratio (MV) remained at the 0 percentile one-year (and now also five-year).
So hedge funds decreased longs and increased shorts last week, likely in a move to preserve what has been a good year, but leaving a huge amount of room for them to eventually reengage with the market.
The Week Ahead – The Rotation Continues
AI worries are pressuring Tech and sending yields lower as we embark on a heavy earnings week including several names in the cross-hairs.
pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
NDX has fallen hard since its Oct. 6 top. But the numbers of its components above their own 100MAs is rising. Usually I watch this for bearish divergences at tops. This is weird to see it showing a bullish divergence.
$IREN Acceleration channel is in play - all the AI infra plays taken to the woodshed
52W Low is 24.85 / 52W High is 76.87
200D is 44.94 - well under the 200D
Accel channel bottom a bit lower
There's a fair bit of technical damage here unfortunately. Will need to see how price acts at these levels - we're closer to the 52W low now so R/R getting interesting.
$OPEN tracking a few metrics on the turnaround in addition to what the Opendoor team shares on their accountability page. All data is publicly available.
The turnaround is taking time but hopefully the execution continues.
Ignore all the noise - I'm just focusing on data and price.
lighthearted-sherbet-ce79e2.…
