Updates and analysis on the Levant and Geopolitics as a whole. All opinions are my own, RT and Quote Tweets do not mean endorsement

Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
Joined March 2024
My geopolitical predictions and analysis for 2026: 1. 110 years after Sykes-Picot we are facing a new project called the United Abrahamic States with its goal of partitioning existing countries based on sectarian and ethnic lines. The project is based on Israeli hegemony through occupation of land and natural resources. 2. Uprisings in Syria that will do more then spark annexation talks, a alawite state on the coast a durzi state in the south and a Kurdish state in the north. The momentum of annexation will spread to other countries forcing unusual alliances to form. 3. A youth movement in the Middle East. Leadership changes in Bahrain and Jordan. Hussein ibn Abdullah will be crowned king. Turkey will have a new president. 4. The rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia will reach Saudi Arabia, MBS will face his biggest challenges internally after the death of Salman, and we may see a Ritz Carlton 2.0 5. 3 governments in Yemen 6. Attempts at destabilizing the regime in Egypt with fingers pointed towards the Muslim brotherhood. Protests and chants form but in my opinion won’t succeed. The deployment of the Egyptian military and its navy across Africa. 7. Nuclear and Intercontinental Iran. 8. New governments in Lebanon and Palestine pave the way for reform. 9. Without stating the obvious there is no such thing as a ceasefire. 10. Geological and financial crisis worldwide.
Leaving this post here to revisit throughout the year. These are just predictions of the Middle East based on analysis. 1) We will use the word “replaced” more than word “elected” when it comes to leadership across the middle east. We will find it hard to distinguish between revolutions and coups. Families that were in power before will resurface in the news in countries such as Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Palestine and yes even Syria. 2) The hysteria that the Muslim world used in regard to Wilayat Al Fakih will now shift to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood especially in Egypt and Jordan. 3) Unfortunately the same images that we saw in Beirut and the Dahya we could see in Sanaa Yemen. 4) The existential threat that the factions in Gaza used to launch October 7th will be used to launch a similar operation in the West Bank. 5) Iran will face its biggest test internally and will lead to it exerting its force externally. 6) Repeat of True Promise but this time in Lebanon. 7) After a brief scare of civil war adversaries in Lebanon and Palestine will put differences aside and rule together. 8) The prisoners that were promised to be released from Palestine will be released including Al Bargouthi. 9) Fist fights turn into hand shakes between Iran and the gulf countries. 10) The war in Lebanon in certain areas isn’t over.
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A guy who may not be with us for long is $500 in debt, and is asking for help in case he does not make it in the near future...
Hello guys, i opened a fundraiser to help the displaced people of South Lebanon who got displaced by war. Please share and donate to help the needy. God bless south Lebanon, God bless the people 💛❤️ gofund.me/09e6e2b11
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Regarding the Israeli elections, some are justifying one candidate or another while applying the same “lesser of two evils” in American politics. Both are genocidal maniacs, both are leaders of a terrorist cult and both support the oppression, and apartheid policies of Zionism throughout the region. Do not let your hatred of Netanyahu convince you there’s a better path forward, the only vote in the holy land is that of removing Zionism completely and how to prosecute its criminals.
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ISIS elements operate in the badya (desert) of Syria, this is known and in fact the Jordanians have struck the area before, they also operate near the Tanf Base on the Jordanian Syrian border. So why would the Jordanians airstrike southern Syria and in specific Daraa where the Israelis have operated for 2 years with recent commentary from the Israelis of expanding their buffer zone and annexation from this area. This whole thing smells like mansaf, everything is adding up and it’s making the Karak terrorist attack even more suspicious now.
May God have mercy on the innocent Children murdered in the middle of the night by the Jordanian airstrikes in Daraa. The Jordanian security apparatus reportedly eliminated the cell that was responsible for the terrorist attack in Karak so why the performative airstrikes? Is the value of securing public opinion of security more valuable than children sleeping the middle of the night? Furthermore if the Jordanian monarchy believes that these strikes justify retribution and will eliminate the escalation in violence then they should ask their security partners in the Israelis how that experience has gone for them.
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May God have mercy on the innocent Children murdered in the middle of the night by the Jordanian airstrikes in Daraa. The Jordanian security apparatus reportedly eliminated the cell that was responsible for the terrorist attack in Karak so why the performative airstrikes? Is the value of securing public opinion of security more valuable than children sleeping the middle of the night? Furthermore if the Jordanian monarchy believes that these strikes justify retribution and will eliminate the escalation in violence then they should ask their security partners in the Israelis how that experience has gone for them.
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Has Syrian sovereignty become such a joke that even the Jordanians are bombing you at will?
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A security source in Iran addresses the settlers in the occupied Palestinian territories: Be prepared at all times for any last-minute foolishness from Netanyahu. Determine your safe haven now and plan how to reach it. Iran affirms its commitment to ensuring that land, sea, and air escape routes from the occupied territories, and the routes leading to them, are the safest places in Israel. The world has seen with its own eyes that we will do what we say.
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The bag that was left behind
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The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezai from today’s meeting: It has been confirmed that it is necessary for the Zionist entity to withdraw from southern Lebanon and southern Syria, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank, and to cease its aggressions.
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MECCA AVENGERS ASSEMBLE!
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For the conspiracy theorists and defeatists Oil is at 116 There’s a tanker burning in the Basra port Ansarallah fired more missiles towards Saudi territories. Don’t get too drunk on the copium it’s not a good look.
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•هالصيصان شو حلوين •عم بيدوروا حول أمهن مبسوطين
إجتماع رباعي إيراني تركي سعودي باكستاني.. والعزاء ببعبدا ومعراب والصيفي 😭😭😭
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Guess who signed up 😂😂
Finally found who intercepted the F-35
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The stupidity of some on here is honestly impressive
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I swear I was told by Bessent and Trump that Iran was isolated.
Video of the Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey Meeting
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The Egyptian Parliament approves the request to provide military support for Saudi Arabia.
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This meeting could have just been an email. The 3 arrived on a Monday to manipulate oil prices which is already happening as of this morning. The war on Yemen won’t end unless the blockade is lifted, and the strait will not (should not) be opened even if temporarily until the 7 conditions are met with the end of all regional wars at the top of the list. I am not opposed to a regional security architecture that ensures cooperation amongst the countries of the region for mutual defense and economic development, however it’s still immature to achieve this goal with the tension still in the region at its current state.
🇮🇷🇸🇦🇹🇷⚡️- Iran's Supreme National Security Council is holding a meeting in Tehran, Iran, with the Saudi Defense Minister, Pakistani Army Chief, and Turkish Intelligence Chief. Iran describes the meeting as an “Iranian-led initiative toward building stability and peace in the region.”
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Channel 12 (Israel): Timeline for the Day After the Elections: When Will the Israeli Government Be Formed? - October 27th: Date of the Israeli elections for the 26th Knesset, with most polling stations closing at 10:00 PM. - November 4th: Expected date for the official announcement of the final election results, eight days after the vote. - Up to November 11th: The President, Isaac Herzog, must task one of the Knesset members with forming the government within one week of the official announcement of the results. - 28 Days to Form the Government: The leading candidate is given a 28-day period to form the government. The President can extend this period by up to an additional 14 days, making the total deadline 42 days. - Failure of the Leading Candidate: If the leading candidate fails to form the government, they can request to be re-tasked by the President, who will then consult with the parties for up to three days. After that, the President can task another candidate, who will be given 28 days. - Alternative Path with Support of 61 Knesset Members: The President can return the task to the Knesset. If another candidate receives the recommendation of 61 members, they will be given a 14-day period to form the government. - Failure to Form the Government: If no candidate is able to form the government within the specified deadlines, the 26th Knesset will be dissolved, and "Israel" will head to new elections. - When Does the Government Begin Its Work? After its formation is complete, the government is presented to the Knesset to present its program, composition, and distribution of ministerial portfolios, and then it requests a vote of confidence from the parliament. The term of the Prime Minister and ministers officially begins after the vote of confidence. - Until the New Government is Formed: The outgoing government continues to perform its duties as a caretaker government.
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The duration could indicate an evacuation operation however let’s just assume and go with the general narrative that it was a Saudi request for mediations with Ansarallah. The Iranians have been in lock step with the leadership in Sanaa since 2015 and have gone back to the 4 point plan that was submitted to the United Nations from 2015 to 2017. 1. Immediate Ceasefire: An end to all foreign military attacks, airstrikes, and land/air operations by the Saudi-led coalition. 2. Humanitarian Assistance: Unhindered delivery of medical and humanitarian aid to the people of Yemen. 3. Intra-Yemeni Dialogue: A resumption of inclusive national dialogue among all Yemeni factions without foreign pre-conditions. 4. Broad-Based Government: The establishment of an inclusive national unity government representing all parties in Yemen. Tehran has expressed its willingness to mediate amongst the 2 but has said ultimately the decision is Sanaa’s.
The MYSTERIOUS Saudi Arabia Plane has LEFT Iran after a 90 Minute Visit One funny story I am reading is people are saying they are sending Iran money to avoid being targeted in the next round of fighting. I doubt this is true.
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