Boston-based fund manager in stocks and crypto, Father, former soup kitchen manager, guitar player, other stuff . . . a little bit of everything.

Joined March 2009
100% consensus - it’s a new regime. Rates will never go back down, inflation will stay above 4%. I give that 30% likelihood. The other 70% is not back to where the US was, but “worse”. We’re on the European path, that followed the Japan path. Neg rates by 2028 very possible.
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Jerry Jordan retweeted
I'm in my 40s. The most scared/disoriented people in my network are the ones that have the following resume => went to an Ivy League school, went into consulting for Bain or BCG or investment banking for a bulge bracket bank then MBA at Harvard/Stanford and then career progression in high income tech W2 or hedge funds/private equity. A number of these individuals in the last 5 years have been unexpectedly let go in their early 40s with 2-3 kids in private school and a burn rate they socially struggle to walk away from (kids have close friends now, business connections at the private school their kids go to, living in a high cost location makes it easier to network, etc). These are the people literally have only been told they are excellent their entire lives and now are in year 3-4 (no exaggeration) of trying to land a new job. Some are willing to "settle" for working for mid 6 figures (some even less) just to cover their burn rate with a young family. AI probably makes this dynamic happen earlier in one's career going forward for some of these perfect resumes individuals. Good chart from @Jack_Raines in his book Young Money
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Jerry Jordan retweeted
That's insane! Available cash on the NYSE as a % of market cap is at its lowest level in history. Investors are essentially "all in," with leverage adding to the risk. With interest rates this high, a mean reversion seems increasingly likely. Definitely not an ideal time to build a long-term position at these levels.
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Jerry Jordan retweeted
China in the WTO was "AI productivity miracle 1.0." Chart below shows US "Not in Labor Force" as a % of Total US Population, 1975-today. Black line = China in the WTO. "NILF" up 600 bps as a % of population since then. Today, that's ~20m people. Bullish for gold, BTC, UBI, Federal debt levels, stocks, & western political instability.
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something very bad is going to happen . . . "The reality is, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has lost nearly a third of its workforce and hundreds of millions of dollars in funding, and it has failed to appoint an official director to lead the agency since the Trump administration took office in January of last year." vanityfair.com/story/how-to-…
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is $VLO telling us something ?? at the moment down almost 20% from it's high just a couple of weeks ago.
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I’m not saying he’s a liar, but he’s a liar. He pays $500 a month for a plan and they only charge him for $300 ???At that rate he’d have to have a $10-$15,000 deductible. So there isn’t a chance any of this is true.
Armed guards at the door. Opioids offered on repeat. Apple Pay at my bedside. Welcome to the American Emergency Room. The French think it bankrupts you. Americans think France does it for free. I’ve been to the ER in both. Both are wrong. Mountain bike crash, dislocated and fractured shoulder. I’m French, I live in San Francisco, and I take slightly too many risks. Let’s compare. Security 🇺🇸 Kaiser in Marin. Three armed guards and a metal detector. My phone set it off, so with my shoulder out of its socket I walked through again. And again. Then a pat-down. 🇫🇷 A couple of unarmed guys with walkie-talkies. Still not sure what they’re for. Wait 🇺🇸 Three people in the waiting room. Seen in 15 to 30 minutes. 🇫🇷 Broken hand: packed room, 4 hours before anyone touched me. Records 🇺🇸 Kaiser is vertically integrated. Insurer, hospital, doctors: one system. They had my file before I sat down. 🇫🇷 Every new doctor is a fresh context window. Zero history, maybe a printout from last time. Infrastructure 🇺🇸 Small hospital, serious kit. Straight to the trauma bay: real bed, IV, vitals monitoring, ready for surgery if needed. All imaging on the spot. 🇫🇷 Broken hand: a plastic chair and a Doliprane. Drugs 🇺🇸 Strong opioids were the default offer. I said no. They insisted. The doctor came in personally, confused why someone in that much pain would refuse. I stuck to Tylenol, an anti-inflammatory, to put the shoulder back in. Yes, it hurt. No, I didn’t tap out. My mom is proud of me. 🇫🇷 Broken hand: Doliprane, opioids never mentioned. I have friends who got their shoulder popped back in with nothing at all. US default: opioids. French default: Doliprane. Bill 🇺🇸 Every nurse warned me: “You’re French, this bill is going to traumatize you.” Before discharge, someone came to my bed to collect payment. Apple Pay, from the hospital bed. $300. For everything. On a ~$500/month Kaiser plan. 🇫🇷 A flat ~€20 ER fee, usually reimbursed by your mutuelle. The real bill shows up later, on your payslip (see below) followup 🇺🇸 Kaiser called me right after to set up follow-up and physio, all in their system. So far, so good. 🇫🇷 Broken hand: discharged, figure it out yourself. A friend dislocated her finger. They put it back in wrong, sent her home with bad instructions, it locked up, and she needed surgery months later. Still not fixed. “Free healthcare” in France It’s not free when your marginal tax rate nears 70% with social charges. And if you want quality care fast, more and more people pay for private clinics anyway. Verdict One person, one data point. But the care was 10x better than anything I’ve had in France, for a price that’s completely fine. France has a lot to learn. And yes, I refused the narcotics to stay sharp enough to launch a NanoCorp from my hospital bed. Launch your first company run by an AI agent: nanocorp .so
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Oddly enough, it looks like the households have been smarter Buyers over the last 25 years than the corporations, which does seem a little bit strange
🇺🇸 Equity Household buying has stayed strong, more than offsetting weaker corporate demand for US equities 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #sp500 #stocks #equity #stockmarket
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A chart in the @dailychartbook nightly email caught my eye from Goldman's Tony Pasquariello: "The markets have suddenly engaged in an intense debate around both the availability AND the cost of capital. Our AI leaders-vs-laggards basket was up nearly 100% YTD at the end of June; in the time since, the entirety of that performance has been given back." As he intimates the timing lines up pretty good with the headlines surrounding the shift to debt-funded AI capex: 1 - Mid-June, Goldman flagged consensus hyperscaler capex of $770B this year, roughly 100% of operating cash flow (vs. a ~40% 10-yr avg), and Nvidia launched a $20B bond sale, its first since 2021 2 - Incremental debt had gone from 9% of hyperscaler capex in FY2024 to 32% over the last twelve months 3 - AI-related issuers now pay ~115 bp over Treasuries vs. 78 bp for the broader IG market, and Goldman sees $420B of hyperscaler debt issuance next year, up 60% Worth remembering though this is a spread. "Gave back 100%" means the gap reclosed, not that AI stocks necessarily round-tripped, but there's no question that the market got a wake-up call at the peak that all this AI spending wasn't coming out of the hyperscalers' pockets.
I look at hundreds of charts a day. 📈📊📉 After the bell, I curate the best ones and send them to investors. Subscribe to be one of them 👇 dailychartbook.com/
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I’ve been saying for several years that the Quants run the markets. They have a huge slug of money, they trade constantly on massive leverage, and, most importantly, don’t have to worry about taxes. Now GS has got data to fully back up my point:
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Murica #1 baby!
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um, for those playing - this is Socialism.
With Trump's additional $8 billion diesel relief package the government is on pace to pay farmers $55.4 billion in 2026, shattering the record $45 billion farmers got during COVID in 2020. It's not right for the government to take money from non-farmers and give it to farmers.
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Miners and Transports: Am I missing something ?? Why are the miners, like $BHP and $SCCO and $DAL and $RCL up so much today on a mediocre pullback in oil ???
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Interesting
Woody Harrelson has done an ad for Exxon. New Exxon El Nino Commercial Written by Adam McKay @mr.ghostpanther Voiced by Woody Harrelson @woodyharrelson Produced by Yellow Dot Studios Edited by Max Koepke of @lostplanetpost Stock Footage licensing by Stalkr Music licensing APM
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This is starting to feel a little like the Watergate investigation by the press. Where you had one lead group in the Washington Post and then multiple other papers of record coming up with additional information.
Kushner financed Erik Prince’s international terrorism with MBZ’s money. It’s everything we thought but even worse.
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Replying to @gandalf_thegreg
For the first time in his life, Pat mcafee is the smartest person in the room
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$CRWV stock tomorrow at market open for no reason whatsoever
Is CoreWeave actually attempting to mount a rally?
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Holy shit. Dutch intelligence has uncovered Jared Kushner’s role as a Mossad agent.
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I’ve said this on this site now for five or six years. Japan is a leader in the clubhouse, with Europe, 7 to 10 years behind them, and the US 7 to 10 years behind Europe. The demographic drop off, and the very slow to zero real GDP growth is coming for the US
Vincent Deluard (@VincentDeluard) on why Europe looks like Japan in 2011-12: “Europe today is where Japan was in 2011-12, just uglier. Japan, because of its unique demography, is usually 10, 15 years ahead of the rest of the world.” “The only way I can get growth back up is by trashing my currency so much that eventually my exports and my tourism really pick up. That’s how I get out of the debt trap.” “That led to 13 years of a falling yen. Really massive. At one point after the earthquake, there was an 80-handle on the yen against the dollar. This summer it was 165.”
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He’s right. That doesn’t mean the spending makes sense. Go back and look at what all the commodity companies were doing from 2007 to 2011. The exact same thing. Because they knew that the commodity cycle was gonna last 40 years so they spent incredibly aggressively. Turned out it was only a 10 year cycle and they were at the end of it.
The hyperscalers are the biggest cash-generating businesses the world has ever seen. And they’re recycling all of that cash flow into the biggest capex build in history. It’s a self-reinforcing loop. They use the technology they’re building themselves, productivity rises, cash flows rise, capex accelerates. People worry about the borrowing, but these companies carry roughly 3.5% of their market cap in debt. They’re barely in debt at all. This is already the second largest capex event in history. The only bigger one was the railroads... and that cycle ran for 35 years. If intelligence keeps rising, capex keeps rising with it. There is no end to the need for data centers, compute and energy.
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Jerry Jordan retweeted
I would argue this has been predominantly correct for most of technology for the last 10 or 15 years. Google search really was a massive change. The iPhone, and its early iterations with the App Store, absolutely. But each iteration in the last 10 years has had only modest improvements. Let’s be honest, social media could disappear tomorrow and the world doesn’t change. And maybe it gets better. Throwing in online shopping, which is nice but it’s not like we didn’t have shopping before let alone mail order catalogs. So in the end, where do we stand with technology over the last decade, trillions and trillions of market cap created, but trillions and trillions of extracted value from the public, and honestly I’m not sure really any better off as a society.
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