PhD Candidate in Economics at Georgetown University On the 2025-2026 job market Political Economist
Washington, DC
Joined November 2022
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How would a National Popular Vote or Campaign Spending Caps alter U.S. elections?
My JMP develops a structural model to evaluate these reforms by solving the strategic feedback loop between voters and campaigns. 🧵 (1/8)
#EconJobMarket
lukebmiller.github.io/files/…
Counterfactual 3: A National Popular Vote
Under an NPV, every vote adds to the national tally. This triggers a double boost in "safe" states:
Effort: Campaigns stop ignoring them.
Efficacy: Voters finally see their ballot as pivotal.
Result: +5 million votes nationally. (7/8)
Turnout isn't just motivation or mobilization. It is an equilibrium of both.
To evaluate reforms, we need tools that account for how voters and campaigns react to each other.
Paper: lukebmiller.github.io/files/…
Website:
lukebmiller.github.io
🎓 I'm on the 2025-26 Job Market.(8/8)