Got my Devcon ticket 🎟️ I'm attending @EFDevcon this year, and here's what I'll be hunting for 1/ Prediction market teams with real user traction, not just TVL 
2/ Founders thinking seriously about GTM 
3/ Builders who want honest feedback from someone who's researched 40+ PM projects If that's you, reply "Devcon" or DM me. Let's meet.

Thank you @LucknowDAO for the IBW ticket. Joining @IBWofficial as a product marketer in prediction markets. Curious how builders are deciding who their product is for and what they will not list. If you’re building or using prediction markets and will be there, come say hi. See you there. #IBW2026 #IndiaBlockchainWeek #Mumbai

Most teams in prediction markets treat “launch more markets” as the default growth move. The data says it’s usually the wrong one.

Most people in prediction markets still talk about volume and features. The better question is: who is this actually for, and why would they choose this over the alternative? That’s what I write about. Positioning • Segmentation • Distribution. If that lens is useful to you, stick around.

Everyone is posting the volume chart again. @Kalshi is not “winning.” It is the product where a normal person can trade the thing they just heard on the news, same morning, with a dollar account. @Polymarket is not second. It is the one with the widest shelf. @Novig is not a smaller Kalshi. It looked at that shelf and said no. Most new ones still say “trade anything.” That is usually a product that has not decided what it is. If a user had to describe yours to a friend in one sentence, what would they say?

The tier crypto teams underestimate. @RobinhoodApp . @DraftKings . @Underdog . Crypto.com. Interactive Brokers. None of them need to win X. They need an existing user to place a second contract. That's retention wearing an acquisition costume.

3.7% is a print September CPI was 3.7% over the year, 0.6% on the month. Core was 2.6%. That number does not settle “how high will inflation get in 2026.” It also does not settle the October Fed card. Polymarket Money had a hike at 35% after the print.

Four ways a prediction market gets users. Gravity. Pipes. Bought attention. Onchain engines. Funding is not distribution. The scarce thing is a repeat trader who did not arrive for a bonus. If Gravity, pipes, or onchain never went out, say which ones you skipped and I’ll reorder the close so it doesn’t reference posts that aren’t live.

13% on a new global pandemic by end of 2027 is a definition card, not a UN vote. A preparedness declaration does not start an outbreak. The card wants whatever the rules call a pandemic, by that date. I am not in it. NFA.

90% on tech layoffs up in 2026 is a year count, not a Netflix headline. 850 jobs at one company does not settle “up.” The card wants the 2026 total against 2025. One report is a clip. I am not in it. NFA.

Closest Senate race is a margin contract, not a winner contract. It pays on the smallest final gap, after recounts if the rules say so. A poll lead this week does not settle it. Read which states are in the set before you buy the tightest name on the board. NFA.

ParlayX raised $1.25M on 3 Sep for venue integrations and go-to-market. The product is the routing. The open seat is which desk hears about it, and who books the first live flow. That is the growth job I want. Partner distribution, measured on who traded.

The clip account and the book split again this week. @PolymarketSport shipped highlight videos. Ronaldo, Ibra, a Dan Campbell split. None of that is a contract. The book people can trade is still politics and news on @Polymarket: Dodik claiming Bosnia, Taiwan’s foreign minister opening a de facto consulate in Phoenix. Token-launch and FDV cards are live. That board did about $99K in the last 24 hours. A category, not a volume day. US distribution is the NFL slate. A deposit bonus on Titans–Ravens is a channel choice. It is not a new listing. @shayne_coplan’s Token 2049 line is a tease until there is a card with a source and a cutoff. What opened on the book that the timeline did not turn into a clip?

Putin in the US by 31 Dec is a visit contract, not a talks contract. A call, a summit on neutral ground, or a “may come” line does not pay. The rules tab wants him on US soil by year-end. City’s appeal window also closes today. That ¢ is a separate book. NFA.