(Not) Bloomberg for Substack. https://xitter.cf/t.co/rEHA5T73pu

Joined May 2026
Replying to @FundaAI
@FundaAI is closing in on @citrini on the MarketStack Index after James Bulltard pulled ahead of them earlier this week. At this rate, the top 3 MarketStack Index authors, all with 17k subscribers each, will have a combined distribution 19x smaller than the top 3 Bestsellers (Citrini/Burry/Doomberg) who together have almost 1 million subscribers.
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Replying to @conksresearch
“Here it is the France’s CDS so you can realize how bad it is”
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top in OAT-BUND spread is in when mah quants whip out the sovereign CDS charts
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Europe has actively decided to back itself into a corner in trade Migration is amplifying social volatility and cultural unrest Debt service costs are skyrocketing as rates rise This global forces will become more apparent in the US as we progress through midterms and the next presidential election The entire world is operating off interest rates risk and cross-border flow risk from currencies. Most people dont even have a clue what these factors are because theyre so focused on the next data print or earnings release.
The Commission cannot rest on its laurels (for the hybrid deal) for long -- the August EU trade data showed a surge in EV exports ... so both hybrids/ plug ins and pure battery electric vehicle imports were running at a 1m a year pace in August 1/
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thank god, another euro "crisis" to get us to new S&P500 highs
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I’ve seen this quite a bit as well. One of the easiest ways to identify someone who lacks real market experience is to listen to the narratives they construct around the market-making community. It’s a huge red flag whenever someone speaks about market makers as though they’re some divine hand from the sky that sees all, knows all, and controls every movement in the market. More often than not, these narratives serve as convenient scapegoats for price action that someone doesn’t fully understand. And when you actually tap the Street, examine positioning, or dig into the underlying data to validate those claims, they frequently fall apart. The irony is that market makers are often just as constrained by inventory, risk limits, adverse selection, and imperfect information as everyone else. They are not omniscient, nor are they some coordinated entity operating with a singular objective. Ultimately the “market makers are pinning the gamma bro” type of arguments are similar to the statements you hear from a fish blaming the dealer at the casino for “bad luck” on a few hands.
ken griffin, founder of the $77 bn hedge fund firm citadel, has little patience for blaming every losing trade on hedge fund deleveraging. he says people love that explanation because it removes their own accountability. his first questions are about the prices changing, the information his team lacks, and what other investors may have worked out. only after exhausting those paths does he want to discuss who might be forced to sell. his concern with reaching for that explanation too quickly: “I actually stop learning.”
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New Interest Rate Regime Model - Volatility is building capitalflowsresearch.com/p/n…
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These headlines are only going to continue in France They will materialize in a different wrapper in the rest of the Eurozone and eventually the United States This is the macro endgame everyone misunderstands, where fiscal deficits and "money printing" are actually negative for stocks and bonds
🇫🇷 FRANCE'S BORROWING COSTS HIT 24-YEAR HIGH AS DEBT FEARS MOUNT France's 10-year government bond yield briefly topped 5% for the first time since 2002. Violent protests, widening fiscal concerns and political gridlock are fueling a selloff in French debt. PGIM warns of a “perfect storm” as investors question France's ability to rein in deficits. The key risk: Rising borrowing costs could deepen France's fiscal crisis and revive eurozone debt concerns.
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New lows in OATs France is going to continue to collapse until a bailout occurs. After this happens, the Euro is going to start getting cooked even more, and it will start amplifying the risks in the entire Eurozone. There is no printing your way out of this None of this ends well for Europe
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Ed Zitron, a newsletter guy who's been calling the AI top for years, just had an absolute crash out 😂 "Jensen Huang is a piece of shit. Every hyperscaler CEO is too." He even apologized to his readers for having been too polite before. This is what being wrong on AI that long does to a man. What's next, Ed? Jensen did 9/11? 🤣
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I continue to bid ES on pull backs intraday we are seeing selling pressure get bought aggressively through the Globex session and interest rate risk is decreasing
As we look at the market right now, there is a significant degree of positioning that is paying too much of a premium to hedge their downside risk. When we move through event catalysts or macro risk increases, traders put on short term hedges and push premiums to an extreme. When risks don't materialize, these hedges need to be unwound which results in moving the price in the opposite direction traders are hedging. Short vol traders already doubled down on their exposure last week on the VIX spike and index hedges are showing less and less help in managing these underlying rotations and dispersions in equity markets. See the note here on this: open.substack.com/chat/posts… Recent report explaining the macro risks here: capitalflowsresearch.com/p/g…
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First time ever Elon has ever replied to me. Peace in our time. 😂
Replying to @firstadopter
Only if they can get their compute online and reliable, which is extremely difficult to do at scale
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Replying to @firstadopter
Only if they can get their compute online and reliable, which is extremely difficult to do at scale
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$SPCX - JPMORGAN DOUBLES SPACEX PRICE TARGET TO $500 JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500, maintaining an Overweight rating. The bank now forecasts $254 billion in 2027 revenue and 10 GW of computing capacity by year-end, more than doubling its 2027–2028 estimates. JPMorgan also sees strategic merit in a potential SpaceX–Tesla merger, though no deal is guaranteed.
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This is how a credit analysis works. Great read.
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$SPCX is in a league of its own compared to OpenAI and Anthropic. The level of differentiation, competitive advantages, and vertical integration puts it on another planet (pun intended). It’s not particularly close either.
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In the context of spot
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$NBIS JUST MADE GPU PRICING PUBLIC. Nebius launched live, market-driven spot prices for each GPU platform, with regional data, trend charts and an API. GPU pricing used to be a black box. Now the market can watch demand for AI compute in real time.
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Just in case anyone is wondering: I live in Paris; if I didn’t have X dot com I would have no idea there are riots in France.
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