Airbnb is dead. Well it’s not dead but it’s going to be dying soon. The Bear case for Airbnb. I’ve been bullish on Airbnb as a company for many years. But my outlook on the business changed this week. Let me tell you why. In 2012 I purchased my first Airbnb property. Over the years that one property has turned into a portfolio of high-end Airbnb’s that generates almost $1M a month in rental income. Using ai agents for the first time this week has completely changed my outlook on the company. Airbnb is facing an existential threat that most of the market is completely missing. With Airbnb pushing its mandatory host-side commission to 15.5%, the middleman tax has never been higher. Enter AI agents. (Hark, Dot, Muse, Grok Bot, etc) Right now, booking a vacation rental requires navigating a siloed app and paying heavy platform tolls. But your AI agent won't care about Airbnb's brand wall. When you know the property you want to book and you ask it “what’s the cheapest way to book the property” it will query property management system APIs directly, find the exact same home, and execute a direct booking that saves everyone 15%. Airbnb's entire model relies on holding supply captive behind a closed interface. When AI agents can autonomously search, verify reviews, negotiate terms, and book direct with property operators, that walled garden turns into a leaking pipe. The middleman tax's days are numbered. I’m predicting that Airbnb’s growth rate will slow down significantly in the next 24 to 36 months. And within 5 years they will be seeing negative growth. The same can be said for most other online marketplaces that don’t have unique inventory that can only be booked directly on their platform and nowhere else.

I have video monitoring at my house and once a month we see mountain lions on the footage. (Turn the sounds on and you can hear them roar)

My mom gave me a beautiful gift when she died and she didn’t even know she was giving it to me. It’s something that you can give to your loved ones when your time is up. My mom‘s final resting place on earth is in Santa Barbara on a cliff overlooking the Pacific Ocean. It’s one of the most beautiful cemeteries in the world. Every year, my family and I come here to celebrate her birthday and spend time together. The annual trip is something I cherish. I’ve developed somewhat of a ritual. The morning of her birthday I get huevos rancheros at Chad's Café which was previously Sambo's. After breakfast, I’ll ride a bicycle down the boardwalk along the ocean, watching the kids playing in the sand and the adults playing volleyball on the beach. I’ll ride over to Lily‘s flowers and get a bouquet of carnations for my mom. Next, I’ll bike over to the cemetery and spend a few hours sitting with her going through photos of the last 12 months. I’ll share stories and tell her about all the different things that have happened in the last year. Later in the day the rest of my family will join me at her grave and we all sing happy birthday to her. That evening we will have a beautiful dinner together as a family. My mom didn’t know this, but by her selecting the cemetery in Santa Barbara she has given me and my family a reason to visit this beautiful place every year and spend quality time connecting as a family. The annual trip to visit my mom at her grave is something I cherish immensely. Selecting your final resting place here on earth has more to do with your loved ones, than it does with yourself. The gift of giving your loved ones somewhere beautiful to come together and visit as a family every year is something that can live beyond you and create memories for them for years to come.