non consensus l/s tech investor. variant views only. unbridled optimist. 5x since pf inception (jan '25). no investment advice. all views personal.
Manhattan, NY
Joined January 2015
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on track
AI predictions for next 6-9 months
-> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US
-> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs
-> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost
-> Elon open sources Grok
-> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS
-> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable
-> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed
-> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations
-> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27"
-> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization
-> 10yr hits >5%
-> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea
-> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower
-> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round
-> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold
-> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week
-> hypers cut fy27 capex
-> semis reprice >80% lower
-> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession
Masa’s Son retweeted
We won't stop discussing $AERO until we have a reason not to.
Fundamentally, Aerodrome has been steadily capturing market share in tokenized equities trading on decentralized exchanges.
In early September, Uniswap dominated this activity. Fast forward to October, and Aerodrome is now regularly accounting for approximately 40–50% of daily spot DEX volume in this category. For perspective, $AERO's market cap is approximately 17% of $UNI's.
Meanwhile, the technical picture is becoming increasingly interesting.
After spending nearly two years beneath descending trendline resistance, $AERO has recently broken above it, with the weekly moving averages beginning to turn higher.
Growing market share alongside improving technical structure makes $AERO an interesting asset to watch this cycle.
Masa’s Son retweeted
In case you missed it, software lev loans are still ~5 points below their pre-selloff levels and slipping again.
fwiw, the chinese $QQQ is now down 28% ytd, 40% index drawdown
absolute blood bath
imagine how many people would lose their minds if this were to happen here
honestly, it all makes sense
it’s just a lot more fun to raise capital with lower cost of capital and less dilution
Masa’s Son retweeted
(3) And annualized AI revenues were below $20M per MW in the 3Q ($19.5M), a far cry from the $40-50M figures that were thrown around during the quarter. And much closer to where the rest of the industry is. $SPCX
they don't have the money
$SPCX: "I would be surprised if we're brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year."
Masa’s Son retweeted
Since September the $AERO share of spot RWA volume (green) has been inching closer and closer to parity with the $UNI share (blue). ty @Blockworks for graph
This is before they deploy on mainnet, RH chain, Arbitrum, Elysium (?👀?) etc...
Not extremely hard to see where this trend is heading.
Masa’s Son retweeted
A Mac with at least 36GB of RAM can now run Perplexity AI workflows locally. engadget.com/2291754/perplex…
tbh, not a fan of what @SemiAnalysis_ is doing here with @citrini
Breaking news—I’ve joined @citrini as its short form video monkey!!
Watch our first one on this morning’s nuts paper
if there's any knowledgeable $MRNA investor out here, would appreciate a dm
trying to understand known unknowns and esmo implications