Back in April i posted a long defi board. I am no longer in the meme trenches; Its time to get back to fundamentals. This is the concentrated bet going forward for me. Protocols I actually use and enjoy. All positions are bought off the open market. 🍻 base:0x9d0e8f5b25384c7310cb8c6ae32c8fbeb645d083 — onchain options is the late bloomer. perps already won the casino. options is the next TAM: vaults, structured products, programmable yield. derive already has the liquidity moat. Derive V3 is coming soon which is a HUGE infa jump, and isnt fully priced in yet plus throw in agentic trading with options... $KNTQ + nest-2:native — hyperevm rails + the metadex that turns fees into $HYPE. elysium is the unlock for real spot / rwa / meme flow hyperevm couldn’t host. nest sits on that volume. kinetiq sits on the infra. These two will PRINT base:0x940181a94a35a4569e4529a3cdfb74e38fd98631 — the scalpel. hype/lit/drv is the sledgehammer long-vol bet. aero is how you get paid when specific pools actually print. Sends all fees straight to stakers with massive revenue and ETH mainnet incoming + @arc integration. base:0x21cfcfc3d8f98fc728f48341d10ad8283f6eb7ab — still my favorite prediction market. going to eth mainnet. that’s the real venue for a permissionless, credible market. @VitalikButerin just put eyes on it again, and he’s been in as a patron backer. not corposlop. that’s the point. Still holding $VEIL $AAA $EXTRA because i use them. @ArcadiaFi offers the best Automated CL AMM with leverage farming and rev share utility that feels undervalued at its tiny cap. @Extrafi_io will follow Aerodrome to Eth mainnet and beyond so volume will grow and fees to stakers. @Veildotcash focuses on privacy with 100% fees going to stakers as that narrative rises. $QUOTRONS + @nadoHQ Templar NFTs = ink bet. fee share back to nft holders + $INK airdrop exposure. tokenized equity flow on ink, not another meme season.less hopping. more using. more owning. NFA. bags are mine.

Arcadia team cooks

Bullpost for @NestExchange

My current technical thesis on @Trueo_ base:0x21cfcfc3d8f98fc728f48341d10ad8283f6eb7ab using the True/wEth Chart - Bearish/resistance case: Failure to hold and accept above the current band keeps the pair range-bound or subject to further rotation lower, consistent with liquidity still being relatively thin (~$650–700K) and usage still early. - Bullish/price-discovery case: Acceptance and sustained hold above the highlighted levels (with rising volume and follow-through) would open the path toward prior local highs and into higher price discovery, especially if ETH mainnet migration progresses, @DefiLlama activity, or additional integrations provide the catalyst. Volume responses to the @VitalikButerin and DeFiLlama news already demonstrated sensitivity to narrative. Liquidity is the practical constraint today (pool depth limits size). The ETH mainnet move + DefiLlama distribution are the clearest paths to thickening books and reducing that friction. Relative strength vs ETH will be the cleanest gauge of whether the thesis is being priced in. Price Targets & Multiples vs Competitors These are scenario-based, not predictions. Current ~$0.12–0.13 / ~$12–15M mcap. • Conservative / Base Hold $0.25–0.40 | $25–40M mcap | ~2–3× Near prior ATH ($0.26) on successful ETH migration + modest volume growth. Still tiny relative to category leaders. • Base Case $0.50–1.20 | $50–120M mcap | ~4–10× ETH liquidity build + DefiLlama traction drives meaningful usage. Similar to early scaling phases of other onchain primitives. • Bull / Price Discovery $2–5+ | $200–500M+ mcap | 15–40×+ Becomes a recognized decentralized alternative or the embedded prediction layer for major DeFi data sources. Even a small fraction of @Polymarket /@Kalshi scale supports this. Competitor Context • Polymarket: ~$13–21B valuation • Kalshi: ~$36–40B valuation • Azuro (onchain peer): low six-figure mcap From a ~$12–15M base, even modest share of the prediction market category or strong relative multiples vs thin onchain competitors implies large upside. Why base:0x21cfcfc3d8f98fc728f48341d10ad8283f6eb7ab Belongs in Every DeFi Portfolio / Fund (Asymmetric Allocation) 1. Ethereum and values alignment: Explicit L1 migration + Vitalik’s “ethical and not corposlop” framing signals credible neutrality and long-term fit inside the Ethereum ecosystem rather than pure extraction.) has limited downside relative to portfolio size but large upside if Trueo captures onchain share or becomes infrastructure for data-driven markets. 2. Ethereum and values alignment: Explicit L1 migration + Vitalik’s “ethical and not corposlop” framing signals credible neutrality and long-term fit inside the Ethereum ecosystem rather than pure extraction. 3. Distribution moat in progress: Embedding markets where DeFi users already live (DefiLlama dashboards) is a higher-leverage go-to-market than building a destination app from scratch. This is the kind of distribution primitive that funds and researchers actually use. 4. Differentiated product: Yield-bearing collateral (TYD) + staker-secured optimistic oracle + fully permissionless market creation address real pain points (idle capital, resolution trust, and centralization). 5. Liquidity trajectory: Current thin books are the main friction. Migration to Ethereum mainnet + continued partnerships are the explicit path to resolving it. Early movers in similar liquidity-upgrades have historically been rewarded. Risks (material): Usage and fees are still very low; migration timing and execution risk; prediction markets remain winner-take-most; liquidity can stay thin for longer than expected; regulatory overhang on the broader category; small-cap volatility and concentration. This is a high-risk, high-upside satellite position, not a core holding. Bottom line: The chart is at a decision zone vs ETH. Acceptance higher opens price discovery; rejection keeps it range-bound. Fundamentally, the Vitalik-endorsed L1 move + DefiLlama embedding are high-quality catalysts for a clean-tokenomics, yield-aware, fully onchain prediction market. From a ~$12–15M base in a category with $10B+ valuations elsewhere, the multiple potential is real if liquidity and usage follow the narrative. Size accordingly and DYOR. This team is goated and another reason why I am betting on the Price Discovery targets 🍻