Associate Professor of Economics at Carleton University. Interested in statistical inference, empirical micro, and experiments.

Ottawa, Ontario
Joined April 2009
Hey #econtwitter, do you have a binary outcome? Estimate logit models? Want to cluster your standard errors? We've got bad, good, and great news for you. See the thread below, or our new working paper (with @jgmQED and @MortenEcon) for details arxiv.org/abs/2406.00650 1/7
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Very funny that billionaires are like “I am leaving”. And Zucman’s response is “sorry no, my theory doesn’t allow this”
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Matt Webb retweeted
Aidan Toner-Rodgers (infamous for being kicked out of the MIT economics PhD program for a fraudulent AI paper (which was R&R QJE & then pulled)) now has another paper retracted, this time from the Journal of Development Economics. Retraction notice here: sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
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Matt Webb retweeted
Looking for 125 researchers to participate in virtual forensic AI games! We will give you an AI report that documents irregularities in sports/exercise related articles. Also releasing our open source new I4R AI Audit Protocol. Details in this 🧵. Join us!
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Being a professor is an unusual form of celebrity. You're famous among people who are professionally obligated to criticize you.
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Thanks Peter, this Hull-set of results will be quite helpful for a few projects I'm working on.
Please enjoy! Writeup: dropbox.com/scl/fi/ago5vsi89… Repo: github.com/peterdhull/twfe-r… Planning to expand to other journals soon
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Matt Webb retweeted
Please enjoy! Writeup: dropbox.com/scl/fi/ago5vsi89… Repo: github.com/peterdhull/twfe-r… Planning to expand to other journals soon
Why has no one done the massive AI-assisted "how much do negative weights really matter for difference-in-difference" review paper yet?
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Very proud of my wife, Jennifer Brigden , who is doing her first theatre show this Thursday night as part of the Just For Laughs Comedy Club at Casino du Lac-Leamy. Free admission, Doors open at 7 p.m., and seating is first come, first served. casinos.lotoquebec.com/en/la…
🤖 Made with AI
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I recently asked ChatGPT to improve the efficiency of some simulations from a few years ago. To my amazement, its code ran in a few seconds instead of 3 hours. It turns out it went into the GitHub repository, downloaded my final results, and used it as a starting guess in the optimization. I then tried running it on a new set of parameters. It’s been 15 hours.
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P-values are often misunderstood, so should we use confidence intervals instead? Probably not.
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This might be a first in economics: Authors officially request to be removed from a paper published in REStat. The paper itself has not been retracted - and the other authors remain on the paper. direct.mit.edu/rest/article/…
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Matt Webb retweeted
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Matt Webb retweeted
Replying to @NorthwesternU
@NorthwesternU Economics department dropping some hard truths about predocs (good!)
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Here is a memo to all Canadians: There are no protectionist paths to free trade. Its that simple.
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I tested GPT-Astra on mathematics. It's a quantum leap. You can talk with the model and prove the statements live in Lean. The feeling is absolutely stunning. You can verify your ideas, compile truth. For a mathematician it feels like finally we arrived in the era where we can focus entirely on the ideation and exploration. Each lemma flows once the logic is set. Before the verification was lagging behind but Astra is very fast and for many tasks the formalization happens as you write your argument in Codex. If you tell the model to use literate programming + LaTeX you end up with your proof combined with the Lean code, everything explained as you wrote, mixed with small chunks of Lean which are digestible. I don't want to go back to the era where the only confirmation of the proof was "aha". Now the "aha" is followed by a green tick that indeed tells you that you have captured the essence. Imagine how cool it will be to have all the lemmas of the world combined in one giant database, pointing to people and models who found them. You compose and mix your ideas and build on the shoulders of the giants. But you see much further now and build much faster. And we are just at the beginning of those changes. So much work to do, so much fun!
GPT-6 Astra is here! This is a big moment for our research team - years of work on pretraining, reinforcement learning, and post-training have come together in our most capable and aligned model yet. It can build and test software, work across apps on your computer, and even help you take a crack at open scientific problems! Capabilities that felt like grand challenges a few years ago have become tools people can actually use. One example is Computer Use - if you’ve tried this before and felt like it was too slow or not good enough, I encourage you to give it another shot. We’ve come a long way since Operator, and it “just works” now. We’re also asking these systems to act on your behalf for more consequential work. Agents needs to stay aligned with your goals and values, think transparently, and respond to oversight even when tasks become difficult. We’ve made substantial progress on these behaviors in Astra, alongside stronger monitoring that can stop potentially unauthorized actions. That work is part of what makes this release possible. I think alignment is one of the most important research frontiers in AI, and it remains far from solved. Our ability to understand and align models has to keep pace with model capabilities. We want to give people more room to think, build, and discover with increasingly powerful tools that remain *under their control*. Huge thanks to the researchers and teams who got us here. There’s a lot more work ahead, and I’m incredibly excited about what we can make possible in the near future!
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Shuffling some books into the appropriate collection in light of recent discoveries. datacolada.org/139
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Matt Webb retweeted
There was a lot of commentary about how academic frauds get differential treatment. You know what? Let's show that this isn't the case by shaming Duke into firing Ariely.
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This may be the single most egregious structural failure I’ve seen in academia, out of a lot of egregious failures. A system that suspends the person reporting academic fraud while conspiring to circle the wagons around the fraud itself is fundamentally, irreparably rotten.
I was just suspended by Ghent University. They will almost certainly fire me. The decision was made by rector Petra De Sutter, a former leader of the Green Party.
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I strongly believe that knowledge is fundamental to running a society. We need economists who understand monetary policy in central banks. We need researchers who have studied history, strategy, and military affairs to help steer national defense. We need doctors and public health experts to design effective responses to epidemics. But the public needs sound reasons to let these experts shape their future. Once that trust evaporates, we are all worse off. Unfortunately, the Jason Arday scandal is the perfect example of how these experts, and the institutions they run, are destroying that trust. I do not find Arday’s tales extraordinary. Throughout history, there are thousands of examples of people spinning fantastic tales about their lives. He is just one more name on a long list of confidence men. What is extraordinary is the massive institutional failure at every level. Liverpool John Moores University granting a degree for a Ph.D. dissertation that did not survive even basic scrutiny (including a grammatical mistake in its title). Cambridge University appointing him (full) professor at an unusually early academic age (eight years after his dissertation; in academia, this is what matters, not your biological age) and with a scholarly record that was rather thin. Hilary Cremin (@hilarycremin), head of the Faculty of Education, telling the world on television that Arday was “the best in the world in terms of the research that you do.” The BBC broadcasting segments about Arday, a most unusual decision for an academic appointment. Simon & Schuster paying him a large advance for his memoirs on the basis of a book proposal that defied common sense. And Amazon promoting his book, still this very morning, as an editor’s pick. If I were a regular person, say someone driving a truck in the Midlands or working at a small shop in Sussex, how could I trust the universities any longer? How could I trust the BBC and the media? How could I trust the publishing industry? How could I trust Amazon’s editor’s picks? Then, should we be surprised if the farmer or the shop owner votes for someone selling snake oil? Or if they refuse to listen to the case for policies that cost them in the short run but benefit them in the long run, such as the transition to net zero emissions? Or if they read books written by charlatans? Or if they deny basic scientific findings? The universities, the media, the publishing industry, Amazon, and many of our other core knowledge institutions have a serious problem. Their response is to close ranks and avoid a serious discussion. No, sorry, this will not do. The Jason Arday scandal should be a moment of reckoning. Unfortunately, I am afraid it will not be.
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It is absolutely bananas how much grade inflation has occurred in Ontario high schools. Just look at how much came after Ford was elected and after the pandemic. We can talk about underfunding until we are blue in the face, but my biggest concern is falling standards. I’ve heard horror stories from teachers and professors alike about how unprepared students are still being passed upward to avoid conflicts with parents and administrators. I am committed to increasing education funding and resources for our classrooms, but there is no doubt that curriculum changes and a reintroduced role for standardized testing are needed. It genuinely seems we’ve lost a major goal of education: to create resilient citizens capable of dealing with challenges and setbacks. By letting standards fall, we have also made it harder for high-potential students to really distinguish themselves. It doesn’t surprise me that more parents are looking to tutoring and private education under these circumstances.
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If you defended this man, YOU ARE THE PROBLEM. YOU are the reason the public has lost trust in our institutions.
Jason Arday has published 34 academic publications. I'm too lazy to check them all. I picked 2 at random: 1. Understanding Race and Educational Leadership in Higher Education 2. What Are the Issues for Black and Ethnic Minority Students? Here are some funny mistakes I found: - “Increasing diagoneses of mental illness” He was attempting to write diagnoses, the plural of diagnosis. This typo appears in the opening sentence of the introduction. - “will enviably impact attainment outcomes.” Enviably means in a manner worthy of envy. He means inevitably. - Mental illness supposedly “destabilizes individuals’ mental facilities.” He means mental faculties. - “Racism is unlikely to ever go way, owing to its penetrative, divisive and persistence nature.” Two errors in one sentence: go away and persistent nature. - The mental-health paper promises insight into “the barriers to preventing access and uptake.” That literally means barriers that stop someone from preventing access. He means barriers preventing access and uptake. - “There is a cultural cognizance and sensitivity that is are required.” is are - “There were no visible interpretation services were available.” wrong grammar - The bibliography links to raceeequalityfoundaiton.org.… misspelling both “race equality” and “foundation” in the same URL - “a need to reinvest inequitable structures” Presumably he means "reform" or "restructure" inequitable structures. As written, he recommends reinvesting in them - “heightens feelings of sensibility and vulnerability” he meant sensitivity, not sensibility - “services that have a designated remittance to support the mental well-being” A remittance is money sent as payment or support. He meant remit - “the impact of cultural pressure and expectation on this phenomena” Phenomena is plural; this is singular - “there are few opportunities available for them gain these types of opportunities” them gain
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