Tokenomics @SemiAnalysis_

Joined May 2020
Damn, Ramp data is kinda goated
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Do not underestimate how important subscriptions can be for a lab's unit economics. Consider the following rough numbers for Anthropic
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Majority of people are significantly underestimating the probability of open source models being nerfed (or even outright banned) in the next 6-12 months due to cyber concerns
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Many of the people who "made it" in Silicon Valley during the internet/SaaS era are so blinded by their anti-regulation, pro-free-market priors that they're no longer capable of first principles thinking. Today was a great day for humanity.
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Assuming typical agentic usage patterns and Astra API prices, it cost ~$40M to solve Navier-Stokes
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Jalepeno is the best example we have so far of extremely high roi token spend by a large enterprise to create an entirely new business line. No surprise that it came first from OpenAI/Anthropic.
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Kinda strange that OAI's % of token volume on Vercel's AI Gateway inflected up on 7/16. This is in between 5.6 GA release (7/9) and massive Luna/Terra price cuts (7/30)
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It's been pretty obvious that mathematician will be one of the first jobs to get fully automated for a while now, but it's still absolutely insane to watch it happen in real time
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Max Kan retweeted
Replying to @Thom_Wolf
@Thom_Wolf thank you for working on this with us! Toward model driven defense💪
I don’t believe reality is a simulation, but you genuinely couldn’t script this timeline: • Two weeks ago: At @swyx’s AI Engineer World’s Fair in SF, I decide at the last minute to introduce my friend @uri_rolls onstage for his talk on cyber benchmarks for infrastructure penetration and access control (see below, amazing team). I say: “There is a future where cyber is alive and everyone is well protected and I’m pretty sure that future involves open-source models.” And later: “A big challenge is going to be speed: the speed of attack versus defense. When an intruder starts to enter, you have to see what’s happening and catch them.” • One week ago: @huggingface is hit by a sophisticated intrusion over the weekend. The traces look unlike anything we’ve seen before and suggest serious AI involvement, but we don’t yet know which model was used. The closed models we ask for help choke on their guardrails. We need to react fast, so we turn to @Zai_org’s GLM-5.2 to help us analyze the attack. • Earlier this week: @OpenAI reaches out, discloses what happened, and partners with us on the investigation. The intruder turns out to be exactly what we had discussed two weeks earlier: a fully autonomous agent, powered by an unreleased frontier model, attempting to gain access to part of our infrastructure. Sometimes the timeline we live in is genuinely vertigo-inducing.
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Don’t know why everyone’s clowning on karpathy, Claude tag is the future
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America is truly God's country. Congrats to Gaethje.
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Instead of leveraging their compute to give codex away for free, OpenAI should run smaller batches and make codex super fast instead
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Did OpenAI not grow revenue this month? The Information reported 25B ARR in early March. Fundraising blog post today says 2B per month
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The complete 180 in Groq sentiment is crazy. Seems everyone made the mistake of evaluating accelerator startups as general purpose inference chips, when in reality, they only need to do one specific workflow really well (e.g. high interactivity FFN decode) to be extremely valuable
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Did Nvidia just silently kill Rubin CPX at GTC? Is it because GDDR7 is too expensive now?
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Kinda ironic how Dario is the most scale-pilled, yet Anthropic is the most conservative when it comes to buying compute
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This would be a gigantic strategic blunder by OpenAI
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Jake Paul is a testament to how far self belief can get you. Honestly feels like this fight went perfectly to plan. Charmin ultra soft knockout
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