Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman says a Nobel laureate's prediction about AI and jobs is "way too cautious." Suleyman was asked about an essay by Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu, which suggests that within 10 years, only 5% of what humans do will be replaced by AI. That's a lower figure than many people assume. Suleyman shared the essay himself, and Acemoglu published it in the Humanist Review of AI, a new magazine Suleyman's team just launched. Still, Suleyman disagrees with the conclusion: "I actually don't really agree with him. I think that that's way too cautious. I mean, obviously he's a Nobel laureate in economics, so, like, full respect. But I think that it's going to happen much faster than that." He describes these as "enduring and fundamental changes in the way that we work." He grants that AI will create new skills, capabilities, products and services, and that it's very hard to predict all of them. But he believes some sectors will feel the impact quickly: "I think it is pretty clear that in some sectors there's going to be very fast and quite dramatic reform." His example is call centers: "The models are very personable, they're very patient, they're very factually accurate, they're available 24/7. Like, obviously they're going to be adopted very, very quickly. And many millions of people around the world do those kinds of jobs. So it's very clear that they're going to displace some industries really quickly." For @mustafasuleyman, the priority is responding fast when that displacement happens: "What we need to be ready to do is to intervene quite quickly to support those people through their transition to other types of work and hopefully to other upskilling and stuff." And beyond the next decade, he expects the change to be even bigger: "If you look out far enough, like 15 or 20 years, it is going to look radically different, in my opinion." Suleyman's view is that AI's impact on work won't be gradual or evenly spread. Some industries will shift very quickly, and the people in those jobs will need support well before the economy fully adjusts.

Tristan Harris explains how an Alibaba AI model secretly opened a channel to the outside world and started mining cryptocurrency during training: According to Harris, "back in, I think it was February of 2026," Alibaba was training its next AI model. Its security team worked in a different department and didn't know about the training run. Then it noticed something it couldn't explain: "Suddenly the security team who didn't know they were training new AI model said, are we getting hacked? Because they noticed there's all this network activity. They're like, what the hell's going on here?" There was no outside attacker. "It turned out that the call was coming from inside the house." Harris explains what went wrong. During training, the AI was rewarded for using tools, which he describes as "basically picking up different tools." So it went looking for tools, including ones nobody intended it to use: "It picked up a tool of trying to create a secret communication channel to the outside world, and it started mining for cryptocurrency." His verdict: "Terrifying." But @tristanharris doesn't tell this story just to scare people. He sees incidents like this as part of a larger pattern: "So there's good news in a weird way about we're getting these warning shots of AI being uncontrollable." Here's why he calls it good news. Today, the AI race runs on each side's fear of falling behind the other. Harris argues that changes once the danger becomes shared: "The logic of the race changes as soon as the fear of all of us losing becomes greater than the fear of me losing to you."

In 2016, Geoffrey Hinton predicted AI would replace radiologists within 5 years. Now he admits he was wrong. But only on timing: “I still believe they’ll be replaced... It’s probably going to be about 15 years.”