AI, Big Data and Elections @fladatacom, @freshtakefla and https://xitter.cf/t.co/MIeRWCqev6. Dev and Adjunct @UF. Hiker of Long Trails. Past @TB_Times, @datapath, @USMC
St Petersburg, FL
Joined June 2019
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Much thanks to the PHP2Shell exploit for keeping me up tonight as DNS cuts over to a brand new turnout server. In all, five servers patched, one rebuilt.
Democrats ended yesterday with a 60,000-vote advantage. Republicans have finally begun to chew on the Democratic lead. While Dems held an 8,300 vote lead in VBM today, it was more than offset by a 14,700-voter GOP IPEV advantage. Dems currently up 54k ballots. Currently D+3.16%.
The difference between polling and turnout analysis is that polls are an alchemic projection. Turnout shows what has already occurred. It’s a matter of fact. And there’s not one turnout analyst on this platform that would have predicted what is occurring right now.
I’m not in the business of making predictions, but if there were ever a perfect storm for Florida Democrats, this is how I would expect it to form.
3. Democrats continue to turnout a higher percentage of their voters vs Republicans in every single Florida county. Statewide Dems have turned out 14% of their base vs 9% for the GOP. Could be the GOP's tendency to vote late. Could be beef prices. Who knows?
4. The best I can tell you is that we'll just have to wait and see how Dems perform on Day 3 of IPEV. So far, it's been all gas and no brakes.
Thank you for your attention to this matter. Visit our dashboard here: freshtake.vote/2026G/index.p…
1. Against all odds, Florida Democrats today expanded their vote lead to 60,000. This is pre-COVID turnout in a post-COVID world. This is probably not what @FloridaGOP was anticipating. It may also be the reason why @DemGovs just wired David Jolly $1 million.
2. If I were @FlaDems, I'd be waving that chart in the face of every megadonor in the country right now. Even at a 41%-30% split in the electorate, could you possibly imagine a better set of political circumstances to roll the dice on? Currently D+4.3
