Alistair Taylor

Ahead of the critical NATO summit in Turkey, we at the @MiddleEastInst are examining all dimensions of Turkey’s evolving relationship with NATO and Russia. My latest piece for @ForeignAffairs explores how that relationship has been transformed in recent years. I argue that, under the banner of strategic autonomy, Erdoğan sought to reduce Turkey’s dependence on the West and cultivate closer ties with Russia. But mounting domestic economic and security challenges have pushed Ankara back toward its traditional Western partners. Turkey has taken steps to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, comply more closely with Western sanctions and export-control regimes, and even explore ways to return the S-400s, all while deepening cooperation with NATO. Despite Erdoğan’s ambitious rhetoric about strategic autonomy, Turkey’s economy and security remain deeply tied to Europe and the United States, as they have been for decades. Erdoğan sought an alternative through a closer partnership with Russia, but reality has brought Turkey back toward the Western fold.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/tu…

I had a great conversation with my colleagues at @MiddleEastInst about how competition for influence in the Horn of Africa among Middle Eastern powers — especially the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel — is reshaping the region’s political landscape. Listen here:

The latest episode of @MiddleEastInst 's podcast is great. My colleagues @mideasteditor and Matthew Czekaj speak to our Yemen expert @Ndawsari to unpack why the Houthis continue to stay on the sidelines of the Iran war and what might prompt them to join the fray.mei.edu/podcast/why-the-hout…

My latest piece on Turkey and the Iran war: 1️⃣ NATO intercepted a second Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace. Ankara warned Tehran, while Iranian officials denied responsibility and said they respect Turkish sovereignty. But Iran’s so-called “mosaic defense” strategy, which decentralizes decision-making, makes such assurances hard to rely on. 2️⃣ Disrupting regional trade and energy flows appear to be the unifying strategy in this decentralized structure. That poses serious risks for Turkey, which sits at the crossroads of key energy corridors. One vulnerable asset is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which supplies roughly one-third of Israel’s oil imports. 3️⃣ Turkish officials I spoke with say Iran and its allies have tens of thousands of drones, missiles, and rockets, potentially enough to sustain the conflict for four to five months. For President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that would be a nightmare scenario as he hopes to stabilize the economy ahead of possible early elections in 2027. 4️⃣ Most importantly, Ankara believes it has little leverage to shape the course of this war. 👉 Read the rest here:mei.edu/publication/turkey-c…

Iraqis have just gone to the polls in a pivotal parliamentary election that could redefine the country’s political trajectory. What do the results tell us about the state of Iraqi democracy? What happens next? And is there still space for meaningful democratic reform? In this episode of Rethinking Democracy, I spoke with @renadmansour , Director of the Iraq Initiative at @ChathamHouse , to unpack the election’s aftermath, Iraq’s deeply fragmented political landscape, and the entrenched system of corruption, elite bargaining, and ethno-sectarian power sharing. Listen herehttps://www.mei.edu/multimedia/podcast/ballots-bargains-struggle-iraqi-democracy