Alberta correspondent for @the_logic covering energy and tech. Previously @financialpost. Reach me: [email protected] or Signal: meghanpotkins.81
Calgary, Alberta
Joined March 2009
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Adam Waterous has a bold plan to ship an extra 250,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude by rail to a West Coast terminal for export to Asia—in just two years, and at a fraction of the cost of a new pipeline, he says. But will Ottawa be willing to revisit the idea of an exemption to its BC tanker ban? $SCR.TO $CNR.TO #oott #com
Strathcona is looking to capitalize on its dominance of Canada’s crude-by-rail business. The company owns two rail terminals in Western Canada and handles between 75,000 to 80,000 barrels per day by rail. That’s roughly 80 to 90 per cent of the country’s rail shipments. MORE: thelogic.co/news/adam-watero…
Some additional detail not in Bloomberg's fine report from earlier: “What we’re going to be focused on is making a crude-by-rail export terminal a project of national interest and referred to the Major Projects Office,” Waterous said in an interview, noting he expected federal approval would likely hinge on certain conditions, including “some level of Indigenous participation." How advanced are these plans? Strathcona has engaged w commercial stakeholders, including CN Rail, on capital and operating costs. MORE: thelogic.co/news/adam-watero…
Gufran remembers when Alberta was actually trying to court workers like him. The 34-year-old IT employee was living in Toronto in 2023, having immigrated from India four years earlier, when the province’s “Alberta is Calling” campaign was encouraging workers in other parts of Canada to move west: "Three years back you were inviting people to come to this province, inviting them because you needed people. And now, I don’t know for what reason… They want to project a hostile environment for the newcomers or people moving in from other countries.”
This piece published Saturday more relevant now that Albertans have voted YES to the five immigration-related referendum questions. ICYMI: thelogic.co/news/the-big-rea…
“A lot of time has been spent on this. Too much time.”
Alberta’s decisive rejection of separation was greeted with relief Tuesday by some business leaders, even as financial markets largely shrugged off the result. lnkd.in/gRhUv8Hq
Meghan Potkins retweeted
Alberta’s decisive rejection of separation was greeted with relief Tuesday by some business leaders, even as financial markets largely shrugged off the result showing that, at the latest count, just over 75 per cent of voters favoured remaining in Canada.
thelogic.co/news/alberta-ref…
ALT A photo of a man raising his arm and cheering among other pro-federalist supporters seated in rows of chairs in a large room. The man is wearing jeans and a grey sweater, but others in the frame are wearing red and waving small Canadian flags.
Always surprised to see this argument. Ottawa buys a pipeline to pander to separatists? Maybe it does to rescue what was a bit of deteriorating reputation in capital markets. Or to preserve what can be a double-digit slice of federal corporate tax revenue in boom years (i.e. so long as pipeline bottlenecks aren't tanking the $$$ of your exports). I wasn't covering the sector at the time, but it was always an economic play for the country, not about appeasement. Although the returns definitely took a hit when TMX's price tag climbed.
As I wrote in July, with very few exceptions, the private sector in Alberta hasn't shown up in this referendum campaign the way it did in Quebec, or Brexit. Economic indicators in Alberta have been flashing green for some time and the referendum hasn't changed that. There's still no discernible political risk premium in Alberta's bond yields, last I checked. Markets have never seen separation here as likely. thelogic.co/news/the-big-rea…
So I was a bit surprised by consecutive chamber surveys that suggest that the referendum debate is worrying Alberta businesses. None of this is necessarily contradictory. There's a big difference b/w sentiment among Main Street chamber members and financial markets. But I think some of the disconnect is down to the increasingly favourable outlook for Canadian oil & gas, which is already a sector much less likely to be jittery about separatism for a host reasons. While elsewhere in the economy, the mood is just worse. Trade and tariff threats, the possibility of more political turmoil (incl. within the UCP) and broader anxieties about AI, are piling up.
The bruising battle over separation has left business owners anxious and immigrants feeling unwelcome. If Albertans agree on one thing, it’s that Monday’s vote will not bring closure: new Abacus poll suggests 73% of Albertans expect the independence question to return even if majority of voters choose to remain on Monday. thelogic.co/news/the-big-rea…
Two angles in this massive Emera/Canadian Utilities merger to watch:
-Scale to major chase cross-country transmission infrastructure projects that are part of Ottawa's push to integrate power grids East-West-North
-Newly streamlined ATCO betting on significant buildout of defence and Arctic infrastructure: “There's approximately $180 billion in defence procurement opportunities ahead of us, and $290 billion in defence-related capital investment over the coming decade, primarily in Canada's Arctic,” CEO Nancy Southern said. thelogic.co/news/emera-merge… $EMA.TO $ACO.X.TO $CU.TO
Cenovus is buying one of Canada's last large independent oilsands companies for $5.7 billion. As Ottawa and Alberta try to kickstart a wave of oilsands projects, CEO Jon McKenzie says Ottawa's new tax incentives are already factoring into its plans.
“All of the oilsands companies are cautiously positioning to prepare for a renewed growth push, given the changes to federal fiscal policy, the [Pacific Link oil pipeline] and potentially provincial fiscal stimulus as well,” said energy economist @PTertzakian .
thelogic.co/news/cenovus-tak…
#oott #com
Canada's oilsands majors just posted one of their strongest quarters in years, but the biggest theme wasn't the profits. It was the return of a question the industry hasn't seriously confronted in more than a decade: Is it finally time to build again? thelogic.co/news/canada-oil-…
#oott #com $CNQ.TO $CVE.TO $SU.TO $IMO.TO
Also, a little preview of what oilsands firms are looking for from Ottawa come November when they finalize agreements on Pathways/production growth/pipelines: Internal briefing notes prepared by Natural Resources Canada, obtained by The Logic through ATIP, suggest the Oil Sands Alliance is urging Ottawa to enable the immediate expensing of capital investments in oilsands projects (similar tax measures were rolled out for manufacturing buildings/equipment in Budget 2025): thelogic.co/news/canada-oil-…
Just weeks after calling a new West Coast oil pipeline tied to Pathways "unfinanceable," Cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie is striking a very different tone.
"What's been discussed and agreed on unlocks this business in terms of its investability."
What's changed—and what still has to happen before the industry starts spending. thelogic.co/news/the-big-rea… $cve.to #oott #com
The day Mark Carney and Danielle Smith announced Alberta's new West Coast pipeline route, the agreement underpinning the deal technically didn't exist yet. The parties—including Canada's biggest oilsands companies—had, as one official put it, "agreed to agree." The paperwork and signatures came later.
More on what the new Pathways memorandum actually does—and what still isn't settled. thelogic.co/news/the-big-rea…
#oott #com
Interesting survey. And pretty consistent with something I heard repeatedly when asking oilpatch leaders about Alberta separation over the last couple of months—the referendum doesn't seem to be weighing much yet on sentiment/investment thelogic.co/news/the-big-rea…
What are the leaders behind Alberta's investment, hiring and growth decisions thinking about the year ahead?
Our inaugural Alberta CEO Pulse Survey has the answers.
See where Alberta CEOs are feeling confident, what's getting in the way of growth and where they think governments can make the biggest difference.
Explore the survey: businesscouncilab.com/report…
A key piece of the new Pathways deal: Alberta agreed to ease carbon pricing rules (TIER stringency) for oilsands producers that meet emissions milestones. Oil Sands Alliance president Kendall Dilling says it was important to make the project economically viable. Definitive agreements still to come by Nov. 15. Sounds like there may be more operating cost supports to come via changes to federal Clean Fuel Regulations thelogic.co/news/pathways-ca…
For the sake of my sanity—and the fat stack of unread email in my inbox—I’d be relieved if Premier Danielle Smith cooled it a bit with the big announcements.
But there’s no denying it: Calgary has a bit of an oil-boom vibe to it right now. Except neither WTI nor AECO prices are insane. This is something else.
