new york pascal

My long-term crypto investment thesis: 4 fundamental pillars that will outlive 99% of today's narratives. And why most crypto tokens will never capture the value their projects create. 1 L1 Blockchains - the foundation of crypto. Nothing comparable exists in traditional finance. 2 Speculation - spot, perps, memecoins, prediction markets. Permissionless, global, 24/7 markets. One of crypto's strongest native use cases. 3 Payments & Value Transfer - mostly stablecoins. Moving money globally without asking permission. 4 Store of Value - decentralized, universal storage of wealth. Plus two exceptions: Lending & Credit, and Oracles & Middleware. Real use cases, but I'm skeptical about how much value their tokens can actually capture. Everything else is a derivative of these fundamentals. And the further you move away from them, the less real value remains. RWA? Mostly strengthens the underlying chains. AI agents? Same story. The irony is that many of these narratives will make the fundamental cryptoassets more valuable, while their own tokens capture almost nothing. Meanwhile, people are being sold the most ridiculous investment theses imaginable: Robotics. Decentralized AI. Web3 gaming. Decentralized social networks. Decentralized cloud computing. And apparently, every one of these businesses needs its own token. Why the hell would you buy tokens tied to any of this stuff? Some of these products might succeed. Their tokens can still go to zero. Get out while you still can. Or keep only what you’re comfortable losing entirely. And since people love narratives, let’s kill three more: AI: AI is not crypto. An AI company with a token is still just an AI company with a token. Privacy: Privacy is a feature, not an entire investment category. The chains and applications that need it will integrate it. Quantum & Technology: Code can be copied. Breakthroughs can be replicated. Technology alone is not a moat for your token. My long-term bets: L1: Ethereum, Solana, Tron, Polygon. Speculation: Uniswap, Hyperliquid, Pump, Polymarket. Payments: Tron, Polygon. SoV: Bitcoin. I don’t hold all of these, or necessarily in the proportions I’d ideally want. And yes, Polygon is on my list twice. It’s my legacy investment. I’ve been involved with it for years, and it will always have a place in my portfolio. But beyond that, I see a functioning L1 economy, real payment activity, Polymarket, and a potentially massive revaluation opportunity. I’m willing to take that bet. You can invest in the foundations of crypto. Or you can spend the next decade financing someone else’s narrative.