AI Ops Engineering @ https://xitter.cf/t.co/f3ehCfJlWh 25 // LOL Data Analyst // FA discord: ninarin
Porto Alegre, Brazil
Joined October 2025
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updated expectations for the rest of the Swiss Stage after day 2.
GEN is now the team most likely to go 3-0, at 74.8%.
after TSW’s second loss, qualification chance is 9.2% (−31.53 pp vs. pre-event!!!)
round 3: HLE, G2, DK, GEN, T1, BLG, LOS, TL.
quarterfinal qualifiers: GEN, T1, DK, LYON, MKOI, HLE, BLG, G2.
BLG and G2 now occupy the last two projected spots at 64.1% and 62.7% to qualify, with KC just outside at 53.7% - arguably things are locked like this.
very happy to see DK rising, as they are my favourites in this worlds.
here are my updated expectations for the rest of the Swiss Stage.
T1 is still the team most likely to go 3-0, at 66.1%.
after TSW's first loss, qualification chance is 28.2% (−12.58 pp vs. pre-event 😢)
round 2: MKOI, KC, GEN, T1, TES, G2, TSW, BLG. quarterfinal qualifiers: T1, GEN, HLE, KC, DK, LYON, MKOI, BLG.
BLG and G2 are competing for the 8th spot at 52.2% and 49.0% to qualify.
I'm not sure if I'm happy or not
1. TES will not be the 1st team eliminated from worlds
2. G2 is indeed disappointing
extremely uncharacteristic errors by HLE this game
specifically from Zeka - once in the early game going too far with 0 possible follow-up, then in the drake fight, also with 0 follow-up possible
delight ulted 1 target more than once too
amazing performance by meiko this game.
DAY 2 OF SWISS
MKOI vs CFO - MKOI 62.9% ✅
KC vs LYON - LYON 41.9% ❌
HLE vs GEN - GEN 57.5% ✅
DK vs T1 - DK 22.8% ❌
TES vs AL - TES 51.6% ✅
LOS vs G2 - G2 59.8% ✅
IG vs TSW - IG 42.6% ❌
BLG vs TL - BLG 62.4% ✅
Hit rate: 5/8 (62.5%)
Expected: 4.87 wins; actual: 5
Calibration gap: +1.63 pp
T1 lost against DK in the same way G2 lost
that is very interesting
this exceptional teamfight performance should make them very, very scary against geng
oh my GOD
I'm so happy LYON won, although that's not what I expected to happen at all
Berserker really performed as he should. Inspired played fights really well too, and Dhokla didn't come close to choking
happy for my boys
guys SURELY AL is good though
like SURELY
trust man they won against BLG they are soooooooooo good man SURELY
DAY 1 OF SWISS
GEN vs IG - GEN 72.6% ✅
TL vs CFO - CFO 33.6%❌
AL vs KC - KC 60.2%✅
G2 vs DK - DK 42.1%❌
HLE vs TES - HLE 69.5%✅
LOS vs T1 - T1 79.1%✅
TSW vs LYON - LYON 55%✅
BLG vs MKOI - MKOI 65.1%❌
Hit rate: 5/8 (62.5%)
Expected: 5.26 wins; actual: 5
Calibration gap: -3.23 pp
here are my updated expectations for the rest of the Swiss Stage.
T1 is still the team most likely to go 3-0, at 66.1%.
after TSW's first loss, qualification chance is 28.2% (−12.58 pp vs. pre-event 😢)
round 2: MKOI, KC, GEN, T1, TES, G2, TSW, BLG. quarterfinal qualifiers: T1, GEN, HLE, KC, DK, LYON, MKOI, BLG.
BLG and G2 are competing for the 8th spot at 52.2% and 49.0% to qualify.
and here are my expectations for the Swiss Stage.
T1 is the team with the highest likelihood of going 3-0 (unfortunately!)
KC's performance on play-ins did some damage to TSW's chance to go into quarters.
round 1: GENG, TL, KC, G2, HLE, T1, LYON, BLG.
quarterfinals qualifiers: T1, GENG, HLE, BLG, G2, KC, DK, LYON/TL.
LYON and TL as 8th is a coinflip.
I wouldn't expect such a crazy throw from G2
although the winning play was poppy's ult in the end
but G2 showed incredible dominance throughout the game.
well played to DK!
this was really impressive by MKOI - or, better said, Jojopyun. very happy for him personally, hope MKOI can keep this performance up
