Markets, Metals & Macro @ MKSPAMP. Tweets are my own
Manhattan, NY
Joined December 2009
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XAUEUR -- as a proxy for true Gold demand -- is wedged and flirting with downside support (line goes back to YTD / June lows, though a little imperfect).
Core CPI was hotter than the Fed (and Precious Metals!) would have liked.
Prices heading to YTD lows with Silver, Platinum & Palladium now officially in a bear market 🫣
Gold -6% (midyear low is -8%).
US$ +4%.
Oddly (or not) Iridium & Ruthenium are the only Precious Metals in the green (+85% & +45% respectively).
At current prices, they'd have to sell (or hedge via options), ~380k oz or 12 tonnes by yearend to meet 75% threshold. Decent size, but not huge.
The real concern is its impact on sentiment; Kazakhstan's ranked as the No. 4 CB Gold buyer in through August 2026, so removing & flipping their presence is bearish.
It also highlights the risks higher prices have done in portfolio mgmt; ETFs to CBs become natural dehedgers/sellers on price rallies as thresholds are met, especially in a higher yield environment.
It reinforces the CB presence at $4K floor ("if the price of bullion drops below $4,000, gold may automatically fall toward the target level, the deputy governor added") - but is it a floor or a new ceiling?
With the blowout in US yields and the US$* — a regression model says Gold should be much lower. But its actual "debasement premium" is ~$840/oz, well below the post-2022 average and near the post-2024-election floor.
If you think this rates/US$ move has overextended - and both Williams and Jeffersons comments insinuate that - Gold's in the buy-zone right here.
*using DXY & Real 10yr US yields (Nominal US 10year yields – US 10yr BreakEvens) as of Sept 27th
Golds navigating some real headwinds with higher oil/rates/US$ but we discuss that China & ETFs continue to buy as the l/t debasement/dedollarization/diversification themes remain in tact.
Great conversation with @daniburgz @BloombergTV
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Pick your poison for lower metals: higher US$, higher Oil (Iran/GCC Hormuz talks postponed indefinitely + Saudi shutting the East-West pipeline), inflation fears reviving Fed hike odds, AI-slowdown demand-destruction risk for Base/PGMs/Silver, and US tariff uncertainty on top.
The model-implied Gold price is $3,970 given mkt pricing 2 Fed hikes within 6mo. Weds hike is fully priced with focus on the SEP dots & Warsh's presser, which carry more weight than the hike itself to pressure test whether this is a new hiking cycle
Technically: 50 DMA sits ~$4,270. A new downtrend line has formed off the $4,700 post-FX/bond-intervention peak — echoes the Q1 ATH downtrend that compressed price into the ~$4K base, this time base support is ~$4,300, signaling persistent CTA selling. That downtrend break on the JPY intervention trigger was worth a $700 rerating.
"I am the House" said just before they announce their Treasury buyback program today.
A larger Treasury buyback program (>$4bn) will put long-term bonds back in focus & help contain elevated yields.
Signs of MORE FX & Bond intervention (vs market expectations) just keep lifting the Gold floor.
Nicky Shiels retweeted
@MBazilian has always been a forward thinker when it comes to critical minerals.
As Director of the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines, he brings decades of experience understanding the critical link between mineral supply chains and national security.
I highly recommend reading their incredibly well-written piece on the minerals and metals required to power the AI buildout. The implications for critical mineral demand are enormous.
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Thanks to the guys at @CNBCFastMoney to discuss Golds bullish outlook 🙌
cnb.cx/4wMH1LG
Nicky Shiels retweeted
Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.
"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left."
"Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination."
"Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets."
"If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit."
wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond…
The US unveiled sanctions against more than 60 entities, focusing on five of Iran’s “most vital lifelines,” including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping.
A little circular... Todays announcement is acknowledgement of the existence of a parallel gold economy (which already exists ) --> cut off illicit Gold --> revalue legit US Gold --> pay for UST buybacks
I duno... but what was fringe is becoming the norm....
Silver's stuck, not starved.
Gold/Silver ratio slowly lifting off depressed sub-50 levels all year; Silver looks underpriced vs what the $ has done recently --it should've reacted with more upside by now.
It doesn't feel like a lack of buying, but a wall of supply (base metal related hedging bleeding through?) — $70 is sticky.
If Gold is NOT mispriced, what actually rerates Silver higher besides just grinding through $70 resistance??
Bond buyback = Precious Metals comeback
Now YCC is far from a free lunch. While it can help bring down longer-end yields in the immediate/short term, thus helping mortgage and other borrowing costs, it risks collateral damage and unintended consequences. Morever, the effects of this financial engineering are short dated unless followed by fundamental policy adjustments.
#economy #yields #bonds #markets
Gold was $4050 when Japan (and the US) intervened in the currency market (JPY) end-July.
Gold was $4350 when US Treasury announced boosted debt buybacks today
New higher floors after another major financial repression move
"Markets Under Manipulation"
pic ht @agnostoxxx
Gold through $4400/oz, grinding higher, and its earning its stripes 3 ways — reserve asset (AI wealth building), haven (rallying WITH oil, first time in ages), AND debasement trade (rallying against a firmer $ + higher l/t yields). Rare to get all 3 narratives converging.
IE: an autopilot US economy + Fed in no rush + JPY intervention reviving debasement fears + oil holding a floor = higher floors for Gold, and the current ETF build starts from a much lower base vs 2020/Feb'26 — meaning more room to increase in pace and for price upside. There is some wood to chop at $4500 but all of this is constructive