Niclas Jern (@njern) header
Niclas Jern (@njern) profile picture

Passionate about solving problems with software. Co-founder and VP, Engineering @walkbase. Epistemic rationalist. Strong opinions, weakly held.

Finland
Joined November 2009
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I am truly honored to announce that our 3D open source project has entered its 2.0 version, presenting revolutionary effects that rival those of commercial products. huggingface.co/tencent/Hunyu… github.com/tencent/Hunyuan3D…
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Niclas Jern retweeted
Founder mode vs Bureaucrat mode Many of you have heard about Founder mode, the idea that there are times when you have to make real decisions, overrule people, lead via conviction not consensus, etc. Before this, Ben Horowitz wrote is the excellent essay on Wartime CEOs vs Peacetime CEOs preceding “founder mode” by over a decade. But let’s be honest with ourselves as we read all of this. It’s very aspirational to work somewhere where you see leadership from across the company working towards high-conviction success. But it’s rare. What’s more common? Bureaucrat mode. This is what happens when companies get big, scaled, and successful. Here’s Bureaucrat Mode: - create committees for every decision - make sure every meeting has pre-meetings to build the papers/deck for the meeting - end every meeting by expanding the scope of the project - no one ever owns a decision, so make sure there's complete consensus. Create more meetings if needed - punish anyone showing initiative - discipline anyone who moves quickly without complete consensus - require detailed status reports before any progress - create complex approval workflows for trivial tasks - celebrate vanity metrics and milestones - reward people based on "impact" based on how may people are working on your projects - ask legal, brand, compliance to approve everything no matter how small - talk endlessly about downside risk I’m sure as you read this that this is starting to sound familiar. For all of us that have worked in scaled organizations — as Uber was when I left, at 20,000+ people — a lot of these are actually flavors of “best practices” that people purposely implement. Note that I didn’t put OKRs, QBRs, brand editorial guidelines, unnecessary legal/compliance review, etc on here but they probably should be! It’s easy to beat up on these ideas We can read the above list and laugh (and cry a little too) but of course they fundamentally are the result of good intentions. After all, we’re forming committees to facilitate communication when very complex initiatives like products are getting launched. There’s just a lot of details, and a lot of tradeoffs, and not everyone agrees. This is the good interpretation of this. And to extend these root causes further, there are a few ways that the road to hell is paved with good intentions: - collaboration: Let’s get everyone to work together :) - consensus: The need to address everyone’s concerns, to avoid mistakes, so that everyone is supportive of the decision - inclusiveness: Making sure everyone’s opinions are heard - stability: The core business is the gravy train, and why endanger it? - empowerment/delegation: You don’t want to step on toes! Let’s trust the various teams do their work! - accountability: We have KPIs and goals and playbook, and def not worth distracting ourselves I’m sure these all sound familiar — we’ve all said words like this! Taken independently, of course these are positive+helpful cultural values, and when you take these and then implement them in the form of processes/committees/etc., they can be great. But when industrialized on a massive scale as large tech companies do, it becomes hard to get anything done. Of course, this is where startups have a huge advantage over over large companies. When you have 2-3 people, there’s no consensus that needs to be reached over weeks of meetings — all the information is already held within peoples’ heads, as they work from the same room. You can move incredibly fast and just focus on output, because there are less social relationships to manage. It’s fine to disagree, because it either takes a moment to sort out, or you can just try stuff out, and undo if it doesn’t work. But all of this bureaucracy is not just driven by good intention. What makes this Bureaucrat mode and not Collaboration mode is that often these mechanisms are hijacked by people who forget why the mechanisms exist in the first place, and instead use the machine to drive their own careers. Self-replicating bureaucrats If you create an organization where “impact” is measured by how much your team is outputting — and thus, it correlates with the size of your team — then you are going to create a massive incentive to pitch all sorts of large scale projects that require hiring. If people see that other people getting promoted requires them to manage people, so that their responsibilities and scope are vast, rather than the success of their output — well, you are going to creative an incentive to hire a ton of folks. If big visible projects (“Project XYZ!”) end up being what’s required to drive internal visibility, and thus promotions, small impactful things will be ignored and big grandstanding projects will end up being encouraged. Committees will be formed for reasons other than building consensus. This creates the phenomenon of self-replicating bureaucrats: If winners hire winners, and losers hire losers, what do bureaucrats hire? More bureaucrats of course. The reason is that companies that highly prize consensus, process, etc., will inevitably hire the people who are good at executing against this set of constraints. This continues and continues, until the moment the company is required to actually move nimbly to face off against an entrepreneurial new startup (example: car companies versus Tesla) or a big technology trend occurs (example: AI and Europe). Because there’s so much that’s unknowable about these situations, and so much of what’s required is just to try things and learn things fall apart. The highly consensus-driven, collaborative organization that has become staffed with self-replicating bureaucrats end up not being able to bureaucrat themselves out of the situation. The cycle of life This phenomenon is so ubiquitous that it’s almost a cycle of life within tech. - A new, nimble startup with an aggressive new founder(s) emerges - To scale, it hires well-intentioned, competent managers - It wins the market (woohoo!) and IPOs - Later, bureaucrats who are attracted to peacetime (and brand, and stability) sneak into the company. They have shiny resumes - The entrepreneurial people quit, or leave, and can’t deal with the new processes. The bureaucrats take over. The founder either checks out, or retires - The company is in Bureaucrat Mode - A new, nimble startup then emerges… Without this cycle of life, the tech industry would not exist. I saw this first hand at Uber, which was respected as the fastest-moving big company led by an aggressive founder, and eventually things got bogged down as it grew. Very hard to counteract, even with a company where “moving fast” was part of the core DNA. In tech, at least we have a cycle of life where new startups can take over. In Europe however… :)
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This sounds like a trivial observation and it isn’t: No organization which makes its people pay for coffee wants to win.
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Niclas Jern retweeted
Found this gem a while back. 7 novel & valuable sales tips:
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Horrible, depressing chart of phthalate content in common foods. consumerreports.org/health/f…
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Niclas Jern retweeted
Do you think it’s tough to speed up a software project?
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Niclas Jern retweeted
As a senior executive, you care a lot about your teams moving fast. So when a team misses its committed launch date, you show great displeasure. You demand more accountability. You make an example out of this team. Other teams see this. They are not stupid. So they learn. And from now on, every single team hits their committed launch dates. You are very happy. I can see it. But my friend, I am so sorry to tell you: You are no longer moving as fast as you were before. Plus, what you ship will no longer be as high quality as before. And over time you start to see this too. You are not stupid. Even though everyone is hitting their launch dates, something has changed. Things seem to be moving slower than before. And you have no idea why. So you call meetings. You set up check-ins. You set up processes. But despite all your efforts, nothing changes. That gnawing feeling that you are no longer moving fast persists. That embarrassment of seeing your teams ship a shoddy experience is all too common now. And you have no idea why. The answer is right there. You are no longer moving fast because of YOUR communication. Instead of creating a culture where teams have intrinsic motivation to move fast — because they are energetic and they care — you started punishing the odd case where a team misses its aggressive target date. And so, by doing that you sent a message to everyone: Don't be very ambitious, because the reward for ambition is punishment. I know that isn't the message you wanted to send. But by doing what you did, it is the only message you will send. 100 times out of 100. What could you have done instead? When that team missed its launch date, you could have sent a positive message instead of punishing the team's leaders. You could have used this opportunity to build & maintain a culture of aggression and ambition. You could have said: "I understand why you missed the launch date. I'd rather that you stay aggressive and sometimes miss the date than being conservative and always hitting the date. I don't want you to stop being aggressive by default. And we want more teams to be like you." At this point, you are either seeing the value of this approach or you are trying to find reasons to reject it. And your reasons are quite flimsy, such as: "But what about launches that have an external commitment?" You are smart. You can figure that one out. But okay, let me spell it out for you: 1. Most launch dates should not be committed externally. So don't commit dates for most launches. 2. A few launches need external commitments (to customers, or regulators, or partners...) 3. For the launches in # 2, sure, commit a conservative launch date that you are almost certain to hit. 4. But even for those, ask the team to devise an aggressive internal target date. It's okay if they slip this date. But it's important to have that aggressive internal target. Why? Because remember Parkinson's Law: Work expands to fill the time allotted for its completion. Have you ever noticed how teams always struggle to hit their launch date, no matter how conservatively they've set them? Yes, that's because of Parkinson's Law. Look, I know it's easy to have dogma around "always hitting dates". Dates are an easy, but incorrect proxy for your teams' velocity, ambition, and energy. Though if you still want to maintain your fascination with hitting all dates, I am not sure I can (or even want to at this point) convince you otherwise. But then I also guarantee that you will spend your entire career managing teams that move slower than they really can and/or ship lower quality products than they really can, and you will spend your entire career setting up check-ins, processes, spreadsheets, and carrots/sticks trying & failing to solve a problem that you created in the first place. Best of luck to you!
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Niclas Jern retweeted
It's a bad sign when a site forces you play a video to learn what they offer. They won't let you jump around a text explanation. You're going to hear the words they want you to hear, in the order they want, at the speed they want. How can anything made by such people be good?
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Such a simple but powerful framework by Bezos. Bad leaders spend way too much time on type 1 decisions because: - They can’t distinguish type 1 & 2 decisions - They don’t fully trust their people
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Very broad nature of the decline makes me suspect "the phones"
What is HAPPENING here? Between 2012 and 2023, it appears that average OECD reading, math and science scores have declined consistently. This is not (just) about pandemic learning loss. It’s not about one US city. It’s not even just the US. This is the entire developed world.
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12 thoughts on incentives: 1. Don't ask your barber if you need a haircut. 2. "I can fix the $32 trillion US debt problem in 5 minutes. You pass a law that when there’s a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members congress are ineligible for re-election” - Warren Buffett 3. 33% of British criminals were dying en route to Australia in the 1700s. Britain switched from paying sea captains for every passenger who walked on the ship to paying them for every passenger who walked off. Immediately, the survival rate shot up to 99%. 4. How to waste your time: Try to defy the laws of physics -- or try to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it. 5. “Never attribute to conspiracy what is more easily explained by incentives and incompetence.” - Naval 6. During the 1980's, the government of Athens came up with an idea to limit pollution: Odd-numbered and even-numbered license plates. On dates with an odd number, the odd plates could drive. And vice versa. The rich people just bought another car -- with even worse emissions. The streets got more jammed and the pollution got worse. 7. “If you reward profits alone, it’s the dumbest thing you could do. Employees will quit advertising and start shrinking the business” - Buffett 8. If video games teach us one thing: If you want to motivate humans, frequent rewards are more addicting than one-off rewards. 9. In Hungary, every woman who gives birth to 4 children or more never has to pay income tax. Prediction for the next 2 decades: As populations decline, every government will be focused on child-bearing incentives. 10. “I think I've been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I've underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther." - Munger 11. If a person tells you why their thing is great (city, relationship, or job) - take it with a pinch of salt. If they tell you why it's terrible - take it like a handful of gold. If someone swims upstream against their identity and incentives, it probably holds some deep truth. 12. Skinner's Law: If procrastinating, 2 ways to solve it: Option 1 - Make the pain of inaction > Pain of action Option 2 - Make the pleasure of action > Pleasure of inaction The person with a gun to their head and crack cocaine at the finish line doesn't need motivation.
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Learn to say No
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In the last 30 years, America has produced seven trillion-dollar companies, while Europe has not produced a single one worth more than $100B.
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Knowing too much about how things work makes you wonder how the world keeps running at all
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Niclas Jern retweeted
plans should be measured in decades, execution should be measured in weeks. you gotta have both.
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Niclas Jern retweeted
The most alarming thing I've read about AI in recent memory. And if Sam thinks this, it's probably true, because he's an expert in both AI and persuasion.
i expect ai to be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to some very strange outcomes
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As a guiding principle, the notion that 'bees don't waste their time explaining to flies that honey is better than shit' has helped me filter out a lot of opinions.
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