Research Analyst/Trader/Investor. Blogging on Indian Equity Markets for 20 yrs. SEBI- RA INH000008075.
India Mumbai
Joined April 2009
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SIP = Systematic Investmen Plan.
It works because
SIP = Store , Invest , Protect
SIP = Saving instead of Pissing
SIP = Secure it Promptly
SIP = Starving impulsive Purchases
SIP = Save Invest Profit
Its beyond Returns and Performance for lot of Investors.
Not a MFD
Nooresh Merani retweeted
Indian stock markets are in a deep correction, and it’s deeper beyond the top 100.
Of 2,918 stocks outside the top100, 1 out of every 2 is down 30% or more from its 52-week high. 2 out of 3 are in the red over the last year. This has brought many businesses back to reasonable valuations.
On the other side, a few specific themes have done exceedingly well. About 1 in 8 stocks has delivered 50%+ returns, led by capital goods, electricals, defence, pharma, chemicals and auto parts. Broadly, a lot of money is chasing the momentum.
Net Net: Lots of stocks are available at sensible levels, while a few pockets are running hot.
Next 3 years have high probability of reasonable returns.
There is a saying in the Market
" Rupye ka Maal Aat anne me tab milta hai jab kisi ke paas char anna nahi bacha ho"
" 1 Rupee Value stock is available 50 paise when no one has 25 paise"
A lot of microcaps may again be in that zone like March 2025/2026
Nooresh Merani retweeted
This is as of today’s close. India also narrow but no 36% YTD rally (yet - hope is how we get by 😅).
Nooresh Merani retweeted
As of yesterday., KOSPI is up 36 pct ytd of which samsung and hynix have contributed 32 pct. So rest of mkt is up 4 pct. 563 of 822 stocks are negative.
This year has been story of extreme differentiation everywhere.
USD-INR - The Range is Set.
94-94.5 and 96.5-97. 3 attempts at top and 4th at the bottom range.
Can it break 94 or 97 in the coming 3-6 months?
A break below 94 is a big positive for Equity?
Can RBI keep defending the 97 mark?
Whats ur take ?
Bottoming out takes time.
But upside momentum needs Good News or Worst Over confirmation.
LTCG rumor & Budget 2016
Demon & Trump 2017
Tax Rate Cut 2019
Covid 2020
Black Sea Grain Rusuk 2022
90-day tariff pause 2025
US-Iran MOU 2026
Market is waiting for News/Confirmation!
The Optimistic View
Reliance Power was top of the Market.
JIO Platforms IPO may make bottom of the Market.
The Pessimistic View
The Market has been kept from falling to let Jio Platform ipo.
Whats your take.
Nooresh Merani retweeted
CNXSMALLCAP - WEEKLY
We are very close to a significant support on the smallcap Index on Weekly chart
Index is retesting the previous breakout line + 50 WEMA (Red line) at 18000-18500 zone.
If a reversal candlestick pattern is confirmed in this support range then one can expect an upside rally towards 23000-23500 in coming months
Why are FIIs selling Indian equities?
US 10Y yield: 5%
INR depreciation: 3–5%
LTCG impact: 1–2%
A 10–12% rupee return can mean bond-like dollar returns for equity risk.
Nifty CAGR = 10-12%
Yields, Currency, LTCG, Growth
FIIs need a combo, not just tax reforms, to stay!
Nooresh Merani retweeted
I recently joined @mysandz and @nooreshtech on 'The Fortnitely Show' by @zerodha for a discussion on markets, macroeconomics and the forces shaping India's investment landscape.
Here are the key perspectives I shared during the conversation.
(1) India's Nifty constituents may have a structural growth problem.
(2) Investors seeking 15–20% CAGR growth may need to look beyond the Nifty 50.
(3) The IT recovery needs to be viewed with caution.
(4) India's foreign-investor problem is not just about valuations but policy predictibility and taxation uncertainity.
(5) How the Jio IPO could potentially reshape the telecom industry valuations and the broader capital market.
My larger takeaway: Investors should distinguish between a temporary market correction and a structural change in where earnings growth is likely to emerge.
youtube.com/watch?v=cgysFWp4…
Understanding the key trends shaping the Indian markets !!
Watch the full discussion:
youtu.be/cgysFWp4ORU?si=PIS-…
South Korea ( KOSPI) Down 40% from the peak but still up 25% YTD
5000-5300 an important support.
Time for it to go Sideways or Breakdown?
AI Rally to go sideways or Breakdown?
Eternal > TCS in the Nifty 50.
While TCS has more than 2x Eternal’s market cap.
Yet, Eternal now commands a higher weight in the index.
Find out why !
Indian Equity Market is now more about Smallcaps and Midcaps.
Top 100 companies used to be 83% of India Market Cap in 2003 and above 70 till 2020. Now its down to 56.3%
Nifty50 is also down below 40%.
The Finance Minister today on LTCG/STT
We are very close to the budget, and the preparation for the budget has started, and it may not be the best time for me to say what I will or whatever not consider.
So,these are things on which there’s a lot of debate. So, it’s healthy to have this debate, and I will be keen to hearing them.