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Our Sector Timeline Tracker (STT) is updated for Q4.
This edition looks deeper into each ecosystem’s key components, mapping their timelines, supply-demand conditions and estimated market opportunities, based on cited analyst research.
A clearer guide to where opportunity is developing, when it could scale and how large it could become.
The STT is updated quarterly with the latest available information.
AI Drives Massive PCB Spec Upgrades! Material Shortages Expand as These Taiwan Manufacturers Seize Market Opportunities
The 2026 TPCA Show is themed "The AI High-Performance Revolution: From Computing Core to Intelligent Applications." Institutional investors point out that AI heterogeneous integration is driving a massive upgrade in PCB specifications. This trend is pushing High-Density Interconnect (HDI), high-layer count boards, and ABF substrates toward larger form factors, making the related material and equipment supply chains highly worthy of attention.
The shortage of upstream PCB materials is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, with expansion visibility now stretching to three or four years. Institutional investors estimate that the supply-demand gap for key materials could reach 20% by 2027. Analysts explain that as global demand for AI computing power experiences exponential growth, the cycle for doubling computing power has shortened from two years (between 2000 and 2010) to just seven months (between 2012 and 2023). Post-2024, this cycle has further shrunk to five months.
Furthermore, driven by the AI infrastructure race, demand for PCBs and ABF substrates has surged. The industry has faced tight supplies since 2025, and lead times for equipment have also significantly lengthened. Looking ahead to 2027, critical materials such as Copper Clad Laminates (CCL), copper foil, drilling pins, and fiberglass cloth could face a supply-demand deficit of roughly 20%.
Consequently, benefiting from the continuous upgrade of PCB specifications driven by AI heterogeneous integration, institutional investors are optimistic about:
Substrate Manufacturers: Unimicron 欣興 (3037), Nan Ya PCB 南電 (8046), Kinsus 景碩 (3189)
CCL Manufacturers: Elite Material 台光電 (2383), Taiwan Union Technology 台燿 (6274), ITEQ 聯茂 (6213)
PCB Manufacturers: Gold Circuit Electronics 金像電 (2368), Zhen Ding 臻鼎 (4958), Compeq 華通 (2313)
Copper Foil & Drill Pin Manufacturers: Co-Tech Copper Foil 金居 (8358), Topoint 尖點 (8021)
PTFE Supply Chain: Taiflex 台虹 (8039) and Flexium 台郡(6269) are also expected to benefit from this growing industry demand.
Source:
money.udn.com/money/story/56…
AI 推升 PCB 規格大升級!材料缺口擴大 這些台廠搶商機
2026年TPCA展以「AI高效能革命,從運算核心到智慧應用」為主題。法人指出,AI異質整合推升PCB規格升級,帶動高密度連結(HDI)、高多層板及ABF載板朝大尺寸化發展,相關材料與設備供應鏈值得關注。
PCB上游材料缺貨情況短期難解,擴產能見度已拉長至三至四年,法人預估2027年關鍵材料供需缺口恐達20%。法人分析,隨著全球AI算力需求呈跳躍式成長,算力倍增周期從2000年至2010年的兩年,縮短至2012年至2023年的七個月,2024年後更進一步縮短至五個月。
此外,在AI基礎建設競賽帶動下,PCB及ABF載板需求大增,產業自2025年起供應吃緊,設備交期也大幅拉長。展望2027年,銅箔基板(CCL)、銅箔、鑽針及玻纖布等關鍵材料恐面臨約20%的供需缺口。
因此,受惠AI異質整合帶動PCB規格持續升級,法人看好載板廠欣興(3037)、南電(8046)、景碩(3189);CCL廠台光電(2383)、台燿(6274)、聯茂(6213);PCB廠金像電(2368)、臻鼎(4958)、華通(2313),以及銅箔廠金居(8358)、鑽針廠尖點。此外,PTFE相關供應鏈台虹(8039)、台郡(6269)也可望受惠於產業需求成長。
For Nittobo 日東紡 3110.JP we should now model three separate demand/growth engines:
1) T-glass
→ low CTE/warpage/package substrates, increasingly including memory packaging 👀
2) NE/NER/NEZ
→ high speed, low loss PCB/networking
3) Next-gen Vlex/DX II
→ architecture extension beyond present product specs
Nittobo's Yuhiro Mikami Interview 📰
Nitto Boseki Co. 日東紡 3110.JP
Company Positioning
- Global leading supplier of high-performance semiconductor packaging substrates and high-end glass cloth for electronic equipment motherboards.
- Special glass (NE/T glass, etc.) holds overwhelming market share and industry standard status.
Current Market Conditions
- AI server demand remains robust, with excellent demand for T glass (low CTE, warp-resistant, used for GPU/CPU) and NE/NER glass (low dielectric/low loss, used for high-speed signals).
- Supply is severely tight; the company is working to improve yields to increase shipments.
Demand Structure
- CCL base materials for thin FCCSP and FCBGA are mainly from Japanese manufacturers.
- CSP for memory/modules is stronger from Korean manufacturers.
Investment Plans
- Continuing large-scale investments domestically and internationally, advancing according to schedule.
- Original yarn expansion: Centering on Taiwan to add melting furnaces; T glass yarn expected to contribute to mass production starting in fiscal 2027, aiming to ship as early as possible.
- Domestic plans to decommission E glass melting furnaces to expand special glass production capacity.
- Glass cloth expansion, with weaving processes in collaboration with Nan Ya Plastics.
- Due to upward demand revisions, investment amount revised upward to 120 billion yen by fiscal 2027 (an increase of 40 billion yen from original), targeting T glass capacity at 3 times that of fiscal 2025.
Competition and Differentiation
- Known competitors entering the T glass market, potentially leading to a slight drop in market share, but revenue scale continues to grow.
- Emphasizing over 30 years of proven track record in stably supplying high-quality T glass, upholding "Nittobo quality."
Future Demand Outlook
- Inference AI driving an increase in CPU volumes, with growth in dedicated ASICs/CPUs from service providers.
- Packaging substrates becoming larger in size and more multi-layered at the core, with core thickness potentially doubling to 2.4–3 mm.
- Special glass demand expected to remain strong in the short term; currently evaluating demand for 2029–2030 and the next wave of investment.
Next-Generation Products
- Recommending NER/NEZ (excellent low-Dk/Df), with partial mass production already underway.
- Next-next-generation "DX II" at quartz glass level, targeting sample shipments around fiscal 2028.
- Next-generation T glass "Vlex" under development (low CTE + low loss), expected to officially ship around 2028.
- Emphasizing the need to pair with new resins and collaborate on substrate design to deliver high value-added products.
🔽 🔽 🔽
The interview directly confirms several of our assumptions:
- T-glass and NE/NER demand remains extremely tight
- Nittobo is trying to increase output through capacity additions AND yield improvement.
- Taiwan glass yarn melting capacity is being expanded
- E-glass furnaces in Japan are being retired/reallocated toward specialty glass (scarcity cascades 👀)
- FY 2024-27 total CAPEX was raised by ¥40B to ≈120B
- T-glass capacity is targeted at roughly 3x FY25 levels by FY27
- Next gen VLEX T-glass is targeted around 2028
- next gen low loss products include NER/NEZ and later DX II
Key Takeaway:
Even though Nittobo is undertaking a ¥120B four year CAPEX program, demand has repeatedly been revised upwards faster than their expansion plans.
Another theme we are seeing throughout the passive component ecosystem- demand is increasing faster than supply, even with aggressive capacity expansion.
Unimicron 欣興 3037.TW Analyst Research Report Info
Unimicron expanded its third-quarter 2026 gross margin by 4.0 percentage points sequentially to 28.8%, propelled by roughly 30% QoQ sales growth in ABF substrates as AI chip demand accelerated. Total quarterly revenue increased 23% QoQ to NT$52,650mn, lifting operating profit 58% QoQ to NT$10,528mn on full substrate utilization.
Sell-side models project fourth-quarter revenue to rise another 11% QoQ and gross margin to reach 32.2%, supported by an estimated 10-15% price hike as major AI chips enter mass production. Both House E and House B agree on strong multi-year AI substrate demand, noting that after phase 3 of KF plant 1 ramped in 3Q26, new capacity from KF plant 2 phase 1 will begin ramping in 2Q27.
Valuation expectations diverge between House E's target price estimate of NT$1,550 (dated 27 Oct 2026) and House B's estimate of NT$1,775 (dated 21 Oct 2026). House B anchors its higher valuation on a key customer capacity reservation agreement at the KF facility, projecting initial output in 2Q27 and full production by mid-2028.
Conversely, House E estimates that converting BT lines into ABF leaves transitional capacity idle through 1H27, dampening near-term BT profitability even as ABF margin gains lead sell-side models to project 40.4% gross margin in 2027. Moving forward, the critical metrics to watch are the realization of the expected 10-15% fourth-quarter price increase, the pace of capacity absorption at KF plant 2 in 2Q27, and the duration of transitional BT line idleness.
Credit:
>xitter.cf/OptionKing666/status/2…
Unimicron 欣興 3037.TW Margin, Mix Shift & Strategy
Outer Ninth opening thought:
▶️ Unimicron’s ABF business is strengthening faster than expected, with pricing, full utilization and margin expansion driving the earnings outlook.
Converting capacity could capture more AI demand before new plants arrive. The key test is how quickly stronger ABF economics translate into group profits.
🔽 🔽 🔽 Article & Information
Unimicron's ABF gross margin expansion ran ahead of expectations in 3Q26 as group GM reached 28.8% (+4.0ppt QoQ), with ABF and BT lines running at full utilization. Group sales rose 23% QoQ and ABF sales about 30% QoQ.
GM came 0.4ppt/1.0ppt above Street models, and operating profit beat those models by 6%/7%. Some investors had hoped for roughly 30% GM; analysts attribute the gap mainly to slower BT/HDI margin repair, while arguing the ABF trajectory helps bring the long-term ABF GM target of 50–60% forward.
For 4Q26E, models point to +11% QoQ total sales and GM at 32.2% (+3.4ppt), with a potential 10–15% price hike as major AI chips ramp together. KF plant 1 phase 3 already ramped in 3Q26; KF plant 2 phase 1 is expected in 2Q27 — keeping near-term capacity tight into the next AI build cycle.
Unimicron is converting BT capacity into ABF to secure demand before greenfield ABF plants arrive, even as near-term BT idleness is expected to weigh into 1H27. Analysts raise 2026/27/28E earnings about 10%/5%/5% on stronger ABF margins, with sales estimated at NT$191.5bn / 314.6bn / 506.1bn and EPS at NT$25.00 / 51.32 / 96.51. The DCF-based target moves to NT$1,550 from NT$1,500 on 30x 2027E EPS.
HDI/mSAP is steered toward AI server and optical-module boards, while traditional non-AI PCB capacity is being downsized — including a planned Japan PCB plant sale.
The near-term cost is slower BT/HDI margin recovery versus peers; the offset is earlier ABF share capture while customers wait for new greenfield supply over the next few years. That mix shift is the core of the medium-term earnings path.
Outer Ninth closing thought:
▶️ Unimicron’s results indicate an accelerating ABF upcycle: full utilization, roughly 30% sequential ABF sales growth and stronger margins are lifting earnings expectations. Further price increases and AI chip ramps can sustain that momentum into 4Q, while meaningful new capacity remains several quarters away.
Converting BT capacity to ABF offers an earlier route to capturing demand, alongside shifting HDI/mSAP toward AI servers and optical modules and reducing traditional PCB exposure (hello scarcity cascades).
The medium-term story is increasingly about higher-value AI exposure and stronger ABF profitability—not simply adding production capacity.
This is the mix shift I spoke about yesterday in my article outlining why Unimicron is our top ABF pick which you can read about here:
xitter.cf/outerninth/status/2115…
Nice strategic moves from Unimicron IMO and exactly what we want to see !
Unimicron Accounting Reconciliation and Research
Examination and explanation of net profit decrease QoQ
Net non-operating income was NT$2.64bn, versus approximately NT$8.93bn in Q2.
Lower sequential net profit does not describe the direction of the substrate/PCB operating business.
We must examine operating earnings separately from financial-asset gains.
Q2 benefited from unusually large financial-asset gains, creating a high comparison base. Meanwhile, Unimicron’s operating business improved considerably in Q3.
What inflated Q2? In management’s Q2 call explanation, the notable items included:
• Approximately NT$9.21bn of IFRS 9 financial-asset valuation gains.
• Approximately NT$0.56bn of profit from disposing of the Hukou factory.
• Offsetting these, approximately NT$1.37bn of fixed-asset and inventory impairments relating to Chinese operations.
• There was also ordinary interest income and financing expense.
• Consequently, the NT$8.92bn net non-operating figure is the combined result, rather than the amount of a single exceptional gain. Roic AI
The sequential decline reconciles cleanly.
Q3 operating profit increased NT$3.88bn, but net non-operating income declined NT$6.29bn. Tax expense then increased approximately NT$0.51bn, and the profit attributable to non-controlling interests increased NT$0.14bn.
Together, those movements explain the NT$3.06bn decline in shareholder net profit. The effective tax rate increased from approximately 14.3% to 20.8%. These are calculations from the reported statements.
The correct carryover is: Q3 showed stronger revenue, operating profit and operating margins; reported net profit declined mainly because Q2’s exceptional gains were much larger, with higher tax expense adding to the decline.
The evidence reviewed does not point to a newly identified large Q3 exceptional charge as the principal explanation.
🫡
Unimicron Technology 欣興 3037.TW
2026 Q3 Earnings Results 10.27.2026
Unimicron Technology Corp. reported its third-quarter and nine-month earnings results ending September 30, 2026.
Q3 2026 Financial Highlights:
• Sales: TWD 52,649.84 million, increasing from TWD 33,994.42 million year-over-year (+54.88%).
• Net Income: TWD 10,051.94 million, showing a substantial rise from TWD 2,194.49 million in the prior year (+358.05%).
• EPS: Basic EPS reached TWD 6.36 and Diluted EPS stood at TWD 6.32 (+357.55%)
Nine-Month (9M 2026) Financial Highlights:
• Sales: TWD 132,986.11 million compared to TWD 96,550 million for the same period last year (+37.74%).
• Net Income: TWD 28,209.85 million, up from TWD 3,138.64 million a year ago (+798.79%).
• EPS: Basic EPS was reported at TWD 17.85 and Diluted EPS at TWD 17.68 (+796.98%).
I will post our market Intelligence report once it's ready.
Customer demand is staggering! Elite Material (EMC) invests a massive NT$98.6 billion in a monumental capacity expansion.
[Reporter Zhuo Yijun / Taipei Report] Due to strong customer demand, Elite Material Co., Ltd. (EMC, 2383), the world's leading copper foil substrate (CCL) manufacturer, has decided to undertake a monumental capacity expansion. EMC stated that to meet robust demand from end customers, the company's board of directors resolved today to further expand production capacity. The company plans to add 9.4 million sheets of monthly capacity across its facilities in Taoyuan, Kunshan, Zhongshan, Huangshi, and Penang between 2027 and 2030. Upon completion, the group's total production capacity will reach 15.25 million sheets.
EMC announced that its capital expenditure budget allocates NT$1.4 billion for Elite Material (Taiwan), RMB 9 billion for EMC Zhongshan, RMB 4.9 billion for EMC Kunshan, RMB 1.1 billion for EMC Huangshi, and RM 3.3 billion for EMC Penang, bringing the total estimated investment to approximately NT$98.6 billion.
EMC is currently the global leader in copper foil substrates, boasting a 38.6% market share in the high-speed materials sector, with expectations that its global market share will soon exceed 50%. This dominance has fueled an explosive surge in the company's profitability, pushing its third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) to NT$40.47. This marks an incredible leap from its performance over the past six quarters—where it "earned an EPS of NT$10 per quarter"—to now "earning an EPS of over NT$10 per month," demonstrating phenomenal growth momentum.
Source:
ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breaki…
Elite Material 台光電 2383.TW
EMC: premium-material demand is translating into substantial operating earnings.
Gross margin reached 37.7%, up approximately 3.8 percentage points sequentially.
Operating profit was NT$18.69bn, compared with only NT$0.017bn of net non-operating income.
Basic EPS was NT$40.47. This quarter’s earnings therefore have a particularly clear connection to operating profitability.
There is also a significant new supply-side development: reported board-approved expansion spending totals approximately NT$98.6bn, covering projects during 2027–2030. That supports management’s demand expectations while adding a substantial future investment burden.
Announced capacity must still pass through equipment installation, material procurement, qualification and ramp-up.
(will post this news as I haven't seen it mentioned elsewhere)
o9 Read-through: these results strengthen the evidence that CCL complexity and demand are reaching EMC’s income statement. They also make future cash conversion and expansion execution more consequential.
Elite Material 台光電 2383.TW
EMC: premium-material demand is translating into substantial operating earnings.
Gross margin reached 37.7%, up approximately 3.8 percentage points sequentially.
Operating profit was NT$18.69bn, compared with only NT$0.017bn of net non-operating income.
Basic EPS was NT$40.47. This quarter’s earnings therefore have a particularly clear connection to operating profitability.
There is also a significant new supply-side development: reported board-approved expansion spending totals approximately NT$98.6bn, covering projects during 2027–2030. That supports management’s demand expectations while adding a substantial future investment burden.
Announced capacity must still pass through equipment installation, material procurement, qualification and ramp-up.
(will post this news as I haven't seen it mentioned elsewhere)
o9 Read-through: these results strengthen the evidence that CCL complexity and demand are reaching EMC’s income statement. They also make future cash conversion and expansion execution more consequential.
Elite Material 台光電 2383.TW
2026 Q3 Earnings Results 10.28.2026
Elite Material Co. announced its third-quarter financial results for the period ended September 30, 2026, delivering significant year-over-year growth
Q3 2026 Financial Highlights:
• Sales (Revenue): TWD 60,884.54 million (compared to TWD 25,145.64 million in Q3 2025) +142.13%
• Net Income: TWD 14,499.82 million (compared to TWD 3,965.07 million in Q3 2025) +265.69%
• Basic EPS: TWD 40.47 (compared to TWD 11.19 in Q3 2025) +261.66%
• Diluted EPS: TWD 40.44 (compared to TWD 11.06 in Q3 2025) +265.64%
Nine-Month 2026 Performance (Ended September 30, 2026):
• Nine-Month Sales: TWD 141,226.99 million (compared to TWD 69,333.40 million a year ago) +103.69%
• Nine-Month Net Income: TWD 29,713.01 million (compared to TWD 10,911.85 million a year ago) +172.30%
• Nine-Month Basic EPS: TWD 82.92 (compared to TWD 31.23 a year ago) +165.51%
Meiko, a manufacturer of electronic circuit boards, acquires the Japanese subsidiary of Xinxing Electronics to expand production capacity.
Meiko メイコー 6787.JP purchased Xinxing Electronics AKA Unimicron Japan 新興電子 3037.TW
→ For Unimicron, the sale was for asset optimization and to rebalance manufacturing networks.
For Meiko the acquisition is a strategic operational fit to their existing operations.
On the 27th, Meiko , a manufacturer of electronic circuit boards, announced that it will acquire Unimicron Japan (Eniwa City, Hokkaido), a subsidiary of Taiwanese competitor Unimicron. This acquisition will increase production capacity to meet growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) servers and other applications.
On the same day, a basic agreement was signed. Unimicron Japan will acquire all of its shares and make it a wholly owned subsidiary. A share transfer agreement is expected to be signed in December. The company's sales for the fiscal year ending March 2026 were 7.9 billion yen, and its operating loss was 594 million yen.
Meiko manufactures high-value-added products such as "build-up circuit boards," which increase circuit density by stacking multiple layers of circuit boards. Demand for these boards is rapidly expanding for applications such as AI servers and satellite communications. With its production bases concentrated in Vietnam, the company is increasing domestic production to diversify risk.
nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC2…
Unimicron Technology's board of directors resolved to place new pre-orders for equipment with increased delivery time, totaling approximately NT$50.9 billion.
2026/10/27 19:37
Public Information Observation Station Major Announcement
(3037) Unimicron Technology - Announcement: The Board of Directors of the Company has resolved to increase the amount of pre-orders for long-delivery equipment.
1. Date of Board or Shareholders' Meeting Resolution: 115/10/27
2. Investment Plan Content: The Board of Directors of the Company today resolved to increase the amount of long-delivery equipment procurement orders by approximately NT$50.9 billion.
3. Expected Investment Amount: Approximately NT$50.9 billion.
4. Expected Investment Date: Not applicable
5. Source of Funds: Self-owned funds and bank financing.
6. Specific Purpose: Mainly to meet operational needs, construct new factory buildings and improve process capabilities.
7. Other Matters to be Explained: The execution of the aforementioned long-delivery equipment procurement will be flexibly adjusted according to customer needs, market conditions, etc., and the actual payment amount will be determined based on the execution progress and payment terms.
欣興董事會決議新增長交期設備預下訂單金額,計約509億元
2026/10/27 19:37
公開資訊觀測站重大訊息公告
(3037)欣興-公告本公司董事會決議新增長交期設備預下訂單金額
1.董事會或股東會決議日期:115/10/27
2.投資計畫內容:本公司今日董事會決議通過長交期設備採購訂單金額再增加約新台幣509億元。
3.預計投資金額:約新台幣509億元。
4.預計投資日期:不適用
5.資金來源:自有資金及銀行融資。
6.具體目的:主係配合營運需求,新建廠房並提升製程能力。
7.其他應敘明事項:前述長交期設備採購作業之執行,將依客戶需求、市場狀況等情形彈性調整,實際支付金額依執行進度及付款條件決定之。
m.moneydj.com/f1a.aspx?a=dd1…
Unimicron 欣興 3037.TW Margin, Mix Shift & Strategy
Outer Ninth opening thought:
▶️ Unimicron’s ABF business is strengthening faster than expected, with pricing, full utilization and margin expansion driving the earnings outlook.
Converting capacity could capture more AI demand before new plants arrive. The key test is how quickly stronger ABF economics translate into group profits.
🔽 🔽 🔽 Article & Information
Unimicron's ABF gross margin expansion ran ahead of expectations in 3Q26 as group GM reached 28.8% (+4.0ppt QoQ), with ABF and BT lines running at full utilization. Group sales rose 23% QoQ and ABF sales about 30% QoQ.
GM came 0.4ppt/1.0ppt above Street models, and operating profit beat those models by 6%/7%. Some investors had hoped for roughly 30% GM; analysts attribute the gap mainly to slower BT/HDI margin repair, while arguing the ABF trajectory helps bring the long-term ABF GM target of 50–60% forward.
For 4Q26E, models point to +11% QoQ total sales and GM at 32.2% (+3.4ppt), with a potential 10–15% price hike as major AI chips ramp together. KF plant 1 phase 3 already ramped in 3Q26; KF plant 2 phase 1 is expected in 2Q27 — keeping near-term capacity tight into the next AI build cycle.
Unimicron is converting BT capacity into ABF to secure demand before greenfield ABF plants arrive, even as near-term BT idleness is expected to weigh into 1H27. Analysts raise 2026/27/28E earnings about 10%/5%/5% on stronger ABF margins, with sales estimated at NT$191.5bn / 314.6bn / 506.1bn and EPS at NT$25.00 / 51.32 / 96.51. The DCF-based target moves to NT$1,550 from NT$1,500 on 30x 2027E EPS.
HDI/mSAP is steered toward AI server and optical-module boards, while traditional non-AI PCB capacity is being downsized — including a planned Japan PCB plant sale.
The near-term cost is slower BT/HDI margin recovery versus peers; the offset is earlier ABF share capture while customers wait for new greenfield supply over the next few years. That mix shift is the core of the medium-term earnings path.
Outer Ninth closing thought:
▶️ Unimicron’s results indicate an accelerating ABF upcycle: full utilization, roughly 30% sequential ABF sales growth and stronger margins are lifting earnings expectations. Further price increases and AI chip ramps can sustain that momentum into 4Q, while meaningful new capacity remains several quarters away.
Converting BT capacity to ABF offers an earlier route to capturing demand, alongside shifting HDI/mSAP toward AI servers and optical modules and reducing traditional PCB exposure (hello scarcity cascades).
The medium-term story is increasingly about higher-value AI exposure and stronger ABF profitability—not simply adding production capacity.
This is the mix shift I spoke about yesterday in my article outlining why Unimicron is our top ABF pick which you can read about here:
xitter.cf/outerninth/status/2115…
Nice strategic moves from Unimicron IMO and exactly what we want to see !
Unimicron's ABF gross margin expansion ran ahead of expectations in 3Q26 as group GM reached 28.8% (+4.0ppt QoQ), with ABF and BT lines running at full utilization.
Group sales rose 23% QoQ and ABF sales about 30% QoQ. GM came 0.4ppt/1.0ppt above Street models, and operating profit beat those models by 6%/7%. Some investors had hoped for roughly 30% GM; analysts attribute the gap mainly to slower BT/HDI margin repair, while arguing the ABF trajectory helps bring the long-term ABF GM target of 50–60% forward.
For 4Q26E, models point to +11% QoQ total sales and GM at 32.2% (+3.4ppt), with a potential 10–15% price hike as major AI chips ramp together. KF plant 1 phase 3 already ramped in 3Q26; KF plant 2 phase 1 is expected in 2Q27 — keeping near-term capacity tight into the next AI build cycle.
#Unimicron #ABF #PCB #AI #Semiconductors
Nebius $NBIS touched down and bounced exactly where I said 🎯
Monthly Kijun trend support ✅
$150 to act as support ✅ (bounced at 149.48)
I hope some of you bought the FUD
$NBIS is the only neocloud we hold in size.
The only question remains is this double bottom enough, or do we go back for another test 🤷♂️
Nebius $NBIS is now almost at our monthly Kijun support that I was discussing below 👇
I'm expecting $150 to act as support as the monthly Kijun has demonstrated historically. Wicks below are fine, HTF acceptance below = No bueno
ABF Manufacturer CAPEX plans & Machinery
We have established that ABF substrate floor space is fundamentally non-fungible.
The cutting-edge ABF substrates required for top-tier chips (like NVIDIA’s Blackwell and upcoming Rubin platforms) feature large package sizes, 16–20+ layers, and line widths as narrow as 15 µm. Manufacturing these requires highly specialized, high-end vacuum lamination, high-aspect-ratio laser drilling, and advanced inline optical inspection tools. Lead times for this equipment are currently sitting at an extendedl 18 to 24 months.
Eternal Precision Mechanics 長廣 7795.TW is an equipment manufacturer which holds an effective monopoly at ≈ 95% global share in mid-high end vacuum laminators.
ABF has to be laminated onto the substrate with extremely tight specifications and tolerances. Each build up layer (16-20 presently) creates another lamination step or process so EPM benefits form the increasing size, complexity and layer count of cutting edge ABF architectures.
How Eternal reportedly allocates scarce equipment
According to Goldman Sachs priority goes to customers with:
- Larger scale.
- Longer-standing relationships.
- Secured ABF film supply.
Immediate positive implications for Ibiden and Unimicron.
→ What can we take-away from the CAPEX estimates in Chart 1 ?
(This does not indicate equipment spending alone or machinery allocations).
Kinsus 景碩 3189.TW - gradual increase
Unimicron 欣興 3037.TW - strong, sustained increase
Nan Ya PCB 南亞電 8046.TW - small increase
Ibiden イビデン 4062.JP - peaks in 2027
Semco 삼성전기 009150.KW - largest spending contributor
AT&S AT&S Austria Technologie ATS.VI - declines by 2028
Unimicron and Samsung keep increasing expenditure, while Ibiden and AT&S reduce spending in 2028.
Table 2 outlines spending vs confirmed equipment orders (that are publicly disclosed).
Nikko machinery refers to EPM's Japanese subsidiary so can be thought of as the same entity.
🚨 In addition to the NT 1.76B announced by unimicron to date, I've discovered that today, October 27, Unimicron authorized a further NT$50.9 billion of long-lead equipment procurement.
That is substantial evidence of advance procurement planning, but the announcement does not identify suppliers or delivery years, and execution remains adjustable.
Source:
m.moneydj.com/f1a.aspx?a=dd1…
Ok, so what about SEMCO, they are the largest contributor according to the image 1, how are they equipping their substrate expansion plans ?
I address this in my next post.
Why is Unimicron 欣興 3037.TW our top ABF pick ?
An illustrative Economic Concept & Example:
Ther indexed ASP chart shows 2027 roughly:
- Unimicron ≈ 3.6x 2018
- Kinsus ≈ 2.4x
- NY PCB ≈ 1.8x
This does not mean Unimicron charges twice what Nan Ya or Kinsus does for ABF substrates, It tells us that the product mix is different and that Unimicron is increasingly selling a different substrate.
Unimicron appears to be getting more exposure to:
- very large body AI substrates / larger
- higher layer counts / more layers
- advanced GPU/ASIC packages / more complex
- higher yield burden
- harder power delivery architecture
- better T-glass allocation (according to JPM)
- customer reserved premium capacity
- more expensive equipment
So Unimicron is selling the same product as the other 2 Taiwanese players- ABF substrate, but is receiving a radically different dollar value per unit of effective capacity.
This matters A LOT.
And this is a concept that carries through our passive component ecosystem research- It's another form of economic density.
For ABF:
Substrate volume increases, but the value per unit of substrate capacity increases even faster.
Nomura adds an interesting dimension to the research:
→ Advanced substrate capacity is NOT economically fungible
We must distinguish between different tiers of ABF quality but ALSO newer architectures:
- large reticle size 2.5D substrates
- EMIB-T
- embedded silicon / TSV structure
- two sided power delivery networks
- specialized high end equipment
A conventional ABF production line cannot necessarily be redirected into these newer ABF architectures and products simply because the nominal capacity exists.
This means (and this is important) that industry ABF capacity is becoming an increasingly misleading indicator and that we must work much harder to uncover the underlying dynamics including who is capable of producing what and at what scale.
We must instead be thinking in architecture-specific qualified capacity, which is constrained by:
- T-glass allocation
- ABF CCL alloaction
- vacuum laminator availability
- increasingly large substrate bodies
- more layers
- yield losses
- customer qualification
- specialized tooling
This results in an increasingly widening gap between tier 1 installed capacity and tier 2 nominal capacity which is important for our tier 1 technological leaders like Unimicron and Ibiden and underscores why I write about choosing the tier 1 technological leaders as primary positions- Their moat is much larger.
The result of this is that manufacturers with existing tier 1 production capacity will be rewarded, with immediate positive implications for Ibiden & Unimicron.
Outer Ninth Research ABF Timing base thesis:
▶️ ▶️ ▶️ 2027 is where ABF moves decisively from tight to allocation constrained, and 2028 gets worse rather than better.
Our Investment research throughout the entire passive component mapped ecosytstem must answer:
→ Which company owns the highest-value qualified effective capacity and can actually monetize the shortage without paying too much for future growth ?
Unimicron and other ABF producers can announce a lot of capacity today but a very large portion of it does NOTHING for 2027.
The demand clock is accelerating now and the supply clock comes in later in 2028.
From this we can also infer (IMPORTANT):
2026 price increases are largely a mix of raw material inflation + product mix + selective local tightness
2027 onwards should increasingly be:
genuine scarcity capture + allocation + pricing power
This matters a lot because a cost driven 15% ASP increase and a scarcity driven 15% ASP increase have completely different margin implications- the first is more of a cost pass through and the second passes through more directly to margins.
The latter is what can produce the very large earnings revisions which we are starting to see 👀
Unimicron 欣興 3037.TW
Ibiden イビデン 4062.JP
Nan Ya PCB 南亞電 8046.TW
Kinsus 景碩 3189.TW
#ABF #欣興 #PCB #AI $NVDA
Advantest アドバンテスト 6857.JP | $ATEYY
2026 Q2 Financial Results 10.28.2026
Advantest reported their third quarter results, ending September 30th, 2026
Q2 FY26 Financial Highlights:
• Net Sales: ¥477.7 billion (up 30.0% quarter-over-quarter and 81.7% year-over-year)
• Operating Income: ¥266.8 billion (up 40.4% sequentially and 146.0% year-over-year)
• Operating Margin: 55.9% (expanding by 4.2 percentage points sequentially)
• Gross Margin: 71.1% (a new company record)
• Net Income: ¥193.3 billion (up 142.7% year-over-year)
First Half (H1 FY26) Performance:
• Net Sales: ¥845.2 billion (up 60.5% year-over-year)
• Operating Income: ¥456.8 billion (up 96.5% year-over-year)
• Net Income: ¥368.08 billion
Segment & Regional Breakdown:
• SoC Test Systems: ¥353.3 billion (main growth engine driven by GPUs, custom ASICs, and AI CPUs)
• Memory Test Systems: ¥53.4 billion
• Americas Region: ¥261.3 billion (accounting for over half of total revenue due to North American hyperscaler and fabless demand)
Raised Full-Year (FY26) Guidance:
• Due to the stronger-than-expected AI demand, Advantest upgraded its full-year outlook for the fiscal year ending March 2027:
• Full-Year Sales: ¥1,863.0 billion (up from ¥1,714.0 billion)
• Operating Income: ¥967.0 billion (up from ¥846.0 billion)
• Net Income: ¥741.5 billion (up from ¥660.0 billion)
• Basic EPS Forecast: ¥1,027.08
• Interim Dividend: Raised to ¥49 per share
I will likely not do a Market Intelligence Report for this one (mentioned priority basis) so I included some additional slides from their investor presentation and will include the link in the comments for those interested.
Unimicron Technology 欣興 3037.TW
2026 Q3 Earnings Results 10.27.2026
Unimicron Technology Corp. reported its third-quarter and nine-month earnings results ending September 30, 2026.
Q3 2026 Financial Highlights:
• Sales: TWD 52,649.84 million, increasing from TWD 33,994.42 million year-over-year (+54.88%).
• Net Income: TWD 10,051.94 million, showing a substantial rise from TWD 2,194.49 million in the prior year (+358.05%).
• EPS: Basic EPS reached TWD 6.36 and Diluted EPS stood at TWD 6.32 (+357.55%)
Nine-Month (9M 2026) Financial Highlights:
• Sales: TWD 132,986.11 million compared to TWD 96,550 million for the same period last year (+37.74%).
• Net Income: TWD 28,209.85 million, up from TWD 3,138.64 million a year ago (+798.79%).
• EPS: Basic EPS was reported at TWD 17.85 and Diluted EPS at TWD 17.68 (+796.98%).
I will post our market Intelligence report once it's ready.
Unimicron Technology 欣興 3037.TW — Announcement of Q3 2026 Financial Report
UniMicron's board of directors approved its third-quarter financial report on October 27, 2026
→ Pls. Note these are YTD figures (ending Sept. 30th) they are not Unimicron's detailed quarterly results.
I will post those results when available.
Shares traded down -2.3% at closing.
Announced 9 month metrics:
• Cumulative consolidated revenue for the first three quarters: NT$132.986 billion
• Gross profit: NT$32.554 billion
• Operating profit: NT$19.936 billion
• Pre-tax profit: NT$35.038 billion
• Net profit for the period: NT$29.143 billion
• Net profit attributable to owners of the parent: NT$28.210 billion
• Basic earnings per share: NT$17.85
• As of end-September: total assets NT$399.844 billion; total liabilities NT$217.774 billion; equity attributable to owners of the parent NT$177.833 billion
🔽 🔽 🔽
Preliminary results indicate Unimicron may report a deceleration in net profit compared to Q2.
Based on the financial breakdowns and notes from Goldman Sachs and regional semiconductor analysts, Unimicron's sequential profit dip from Q2 to Q3 was caused by one-off investment revaluations and aggressive structural capacity expansion costs.
Fundamentally, the company’s core business remains incredibly healthy.
h/t @B3bjoern for alerting me to this primary filing.
Elite Material 台光電 2383.TW
2026 Q3 Earnings Results 10.28.2026
Elite Material Co. announced its third-quarter financial results for the period ended September 30, 2026, delivering significant year-over-year growth
Q3 2026 Financial Highlights:
• Sales (Revenue): TWD 60,884.54 million (compared to TWD 25,145.64 million in Q3 2025) +142.13%
• Net Income: TWD 14,499.82 million (compared to TWD 3,965.07 million in Q3 2025) +265.69%
• Basic EPS: TWD 40.47 (compared to TWD 11.19 in Q3 2025) +261.66%
• Diluted EPS: TWD 40.44 (compared to TWD 11.06 in Q3 2025) +265.64%
Nine-Month 2026 Performance (Ended September 30, 2026):
• Nine-Month Sales: TWD 141,226.99 million (compared to TWD 69,333.40 million a year ago) +103.69%
• Nine-Month Net Income: TWD 29,713.01 million (compared to TWD 10,911.85 million a year ago) +172.30%
• Nine-Month Basic EPS: TWD 82.92 (compared to TWD 31.23 a year ago) +165.51%
Elite Materials $2383.TW Q2 earnings
EPS and revenue snapshot:
In the last quarter, the company reported 14.89 TWD per share, beating the 15.02 TWD estimate by −0.85%. Revenue for the same period reached 33.07 B TWD, despite the estimate of 32.47 B TWD. For the next quarter, analysts expect 25.58 TWD in earnings per share and 45.37 B TWD in revenue
Elite Material Co., Ltd. (2383.TW), a major global copper-clad laminate (CCL) producer, reported its Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, 2026, posting a blowout quarter with an EPS of NT$27.55 and bringing first-half EPS to NT$42.46, heavily driven by soaring high-end AI server material demand.
Q2 2026 Financial Highlights:
Q2 2026 EPS: NT$27.55
First-Half (H1) 2026 EPS: NT$42.46
Market Position: Surpassed competitors to become the world's largest CCL manufacturer due to doubled AI-driven revenue growth.
Expansion: Board approved a US$66.83 million investment for US subsidiary facilities to stay close to domestic AI infrastructure clients.
I'm shocked that I can not find anyone else covering these earnings when I search X. If you know of someone, please let me know in the comments.
Elite materials is one of the key names we are looking to position into once the market shows us a bottom. This name is majorly bullish heading into 2027 & 2028, I hope you will take the journey with me and I will let you know when I start to deploy capital into EMC.
o9
techtimes.com/articles/32198…
Samsung Electro-Mechanics 삼성전기 009150.KW
2026 Q3 Earnings Results 10.28.2026
Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) reported its Q3 2026 earnings achieving record-breaking quarterly financial performance.
Financial Highlights:
• Revenue: KRW 3,763.3 billion (~$3.76 trillion), up 9% quarter-over-quarter and 30% year-over-year (slightly missing the KRW 3,797.75 billion forecast).
• Operating Profit: KRW 691 billion, surging 57% quarter-over-quarter and 165% year-over-year—the highest quarterly profit in company history.
• Net Profit: KRW 468.7 billion (with pre-tax profit at KRW 609.7 billion).
• Net Income (GAAP status): KRW 485.0 billion.
Performance by Division:
• Component Division (MLCCs): Revenue reached KRW 1.883 trillion (up 14% QoQ, 36% YoY), driven by strong demand for high-end multi-layer ceramic capacitors in AI data center servers and network switches.
• Package Solution Division: Revenue climbed 58% year-over-year to KRW 939 billion, supported by expanded supply of flip-chip ball grid array (FC-BGA) substrates for AI accelerators and server CPUs.
•Optics Solution Division: Revenue was KRW 941.3 billion (up 3% YoY, down 9% QoQ), boosted by electric vehicle camera modules and sensing modules for humanoid robots.
Our Market Intelligence Report will be shared in the coming days.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics 삼성전기 009150.KW
2026 Q2 Earnings release & Market Intelligence Report from their last reporting on July 30th 2026
This is previously unreleased and I cannot underscore how much work goes into these reports. I hope you take a few mins to read through it.
I posted other analyst projections earlier today including the full Daishin Securities report and just to put it in perspective that it's almost a 3x from here to our bull case and other analyst projections 👀
We maintain our view that this is the easiest 2x in the market from present levels.
I will follow up with a trade plan completely laid out for you guys.
$MLCC #ABF $CAPA $CCML $NVDA
Direct link to ER:
samsungsem.com/global/about-…
Vertiv $VRT Q3 EARNINGS
Huge beat and up BIG pre-market > +15%
• Revenue $4.3B vs Est. $3.8B
• EPS $2.21 vs Est. $1.82
• FCF $652M vs Est. $373M Q4 Guidance
• Revenue $4.4B vs Est. $4.3B
• EPS $2.26 vs Est. $2.21 Vertiv says “we are in the middle of the largest infrastructure buildout and it’s accelerating.”
Earlier this week Vertiv launched SmartIT, a pre-engineered AI infrastructure platform built around $NVDA architectures to simplify high-density data center deployments.
The solution integrates power, liquid cooling, and monitoring into a factory-validated system, helping enterprises and hyperscalers deploy AI computing capacity faster without completely redesigning existing facilities.
$VRT CRUSHED THEIR Q3 EARNINGS
• Revenue $4.3B vs Est. $3.8B
• EPS $2.21 vs Est. $1.82
• FCF $652M vs Est. $373M
Q4 Guidance
• Revenue $4.4B vs Est. $4.3B
• EPS $2.26 vs Est. $2.21
Vertiv says “we are in the middle of the largest infrastructure buildout and it’s accelerating.”
Imo you only need 4 European stocks to play the AI infrastructure buildout. Save this post!
$ATS.VI $IQE $SOI.PA $AMS.SW
Everyone's crowded into the US names. These 4 sit at chokepoints most people often overlook at. Here's where each one fits and why it's hard to replace
1. $ATS.VI, AT&S (Austria): the board every AI chip sits on
> AT&S makes IC substrates, the thin multilayer boards every AI accelerator is mounted on. No substrate, no GPU. Kulim plant 1 in Malaysia runs at full tilt for AMD, and Marvell was named the second anchor customer for Kulim plant 2. Substrates are now 63% of revenue and grew 93% cc last quarter, with substrate EBITDA margin at 42.3% vs 13.0% a year earlier
> Why it's unique: NVIDIA just reserved capacity at Ibiden, SEMCO and Unimicron and committed to raising substrate capacity 2.5x. That leaves AMD, Marvell and every custom chip team competing for what's left, and AT&S is one of the few Western makers at scale. Customers are literally funding its plants. Goldman sees substrate demand beating supply by 34% in 2027
> And it's the cheapest of the lot. AT&S trades at 16.4x trailing EBITDA and 9.1x the FY26/27 guide midpoint. Every listed peer is at 37x to 58x, with Unimicron at 58x and Ibiden at 44.8x. Same product, same shortage, less than half the multiple
2. $IQE, IQE (UK): the scarcest material in AI optics
> Inside AI optics the scarcest input is indium phosphide. IQE grows the epi wafers that lasers and photodetectors are built on, and it's the largest Western merchant epi maker. Lumentum went from 25-30% short in March to sold out to early 2029 this month. Photonics is now 60% of IQE's revenue, H1 sales were up 43% to £64.6m, and photonics segment margin almost doubled from 13.4% to 24.7%. MACOM put in £30m of equity plus a £15m note, and Tower signed a multi-year InP deal
> Why it's unique: it's a merchant, so it sells to everyone instead of hoarding for its own lasers, and it runs every compound material at scale. It's mid-conversion of tools from GaAs to InP, which moves £15-25m of FY27 revenue onto InP economics. Yet the stock is down ~36% from its Oct 6 peak with no bad IQE news, a director just bought 500k shares at 39.13p, and it trades at 3.3x FY27 EV/sales vs 26x for LandMark
3. $SOI.PA, Soitec (France): the wafer behind every AI light link
> Every silicon photonics chip, pluggable or co-packaged, is built on a silicon-on-insulator wafer. Soitec makes them with its Smart Cut process, and its photonics revenue is guided at 2.5 to 3x last year. GlobalFoundries calls it its "primary" 300mm supplier and it's qualified at TSMC and Tower
> Why it's unique: UBS and BofA put its share of photonics SOI at ~95%. It doesn't have to bet on which optics architecture wins, because all of them start on the same wafer. The capacity is already built and paid for, with fab loading under 60% and no new fab needed until ~2029. More than 10 photonics customers have signed capacity reservations with deposits
4. $AMS.SW, ams OSRAM (Austria/Switzerland): the next short-reach link
> This is the optionality pick. Copper runs out at ~2m and pluggables are expensive and power-hungry. The next thing is "wide and slow" links: hundreds of slow lanes using microLEDs or microVCSELs, being standardised at OCP. ams already makes 4 of the 7 building blocks, and it showed 32 Gb/s per lane at ~0.25 pJ/bit with no failures after 2,000+ hours of stress testing
> Why it's unique: very few companies make both emitter types plus the photodiodes and the CMOS underneath in their own fab. Its EVIYOS car headlamp chips have bonded arrays to drivers in volume since 2023, which is the hardest step. To be clear, there's no AI order yet. But the core business is cheap at ~6.4x next year's EBITDA, so you're mostly getting the option for free
The common thread: substrates, InP epi, photonics wafers and optical links. AI isn't limited by demand, it's limited by physical inputs, and Europe quietly owns a few of them
Full deep dives on all 4, with scenarios, price lines and catalysts, are up for subscribers on lekiresearch.com. IQE's was just refreshed today.
















































