
Turning onchain data into growth insights | Pet projects: outputlayer/rwa_cli and @PredGraph | DMs open
16.04
Joined August 2019
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Wasn't active the last few days, still working on the cli for rwa trading/portfolio management.
Added a few cool commands:
thought i found a niche prediction market with an inefficiency but turns out they added this recently and just didnt announce it aaaaaaaa
@DefiLlama on cc revenue kept/vaulted pulls count the full pack price as revenue and sell backs subtract it later so daily revenue is basically when whales decide to sell back not margin. today went 1.46m -> 0.69m intraday, for a market on october revenue thats kinda a big deal, worth a note in the methodology
You can now trade protocol revenue and exploit odds. We're partnering with Trueo to launch new prediction markets that settle based on DefiLlama data.
Revenue Markets
If you follow the revenue meta, you can now trade that directly on Trueo. We launched markets for Hyperliquid, Pump, Aero, Uniswap, Collector Crypt, and Papertrade revenue.
Exploit Markets
Hedge against exploit risk by trading the odds of total DeFi hacks and exploits of specific protocols. We have markets for whether there will be exploits of Aave and Morpho this month. We also have weekly and monthly markets for the size of the largest hack.
Other Onchain Metrics
Robinhood Chain RWA mcap, Robinhood Chain DEX volume, and whether Solana or Base ends the week with higher TVL.
defillama.com/predictions
I think it only makes sense if you expect:
a) PAPER to become tradable on DEXes
b) volume to stay where it is now or keep growing
LP vs the $5M cap:
- above $5M only ~8–11% of the time
- staked supply is growing ~8%/day
Weekly model (staker payouts stay at today's level)
Oct 15 -> Oct 21:
- Staked: 7.9B -> 11.2B PAPER
- Stake growth: +7.5% -> +5.1% per day
- Paid to all stakers: ~$5.3M per day, flat
- Per 1M PAPER: ~$690 -> ~$485 per day (-30%)
my bankr farm routine bought 1.17M $PAPER since midnight
> hedged btc 100x, $25k a leg
> it only opens a pair when the pool is at its cap and the estimated payback is under 20 days
> bankr's take-profit + stop-loss close the pair
> every PAPER auto-staked, usdc claims land on their own
all from one prompt. reinstall the papertrade skill to set yours up
Also tried playing Monte Carlo at the end, almost got back to profit, then hit a losing streak and ended up at $0.00675 per PAPER
At this point, the payback period is ~23h (if the hype continues)
The key metric now: staking yield per 1M PAPER per hour, and how fast it decays
I love how we all optimized our latency, legs, cost per PAPER and all that…
…and then got fucked by the relayer queue, which wasn't mentioned once in the docs 🙃
How's your 100–200× on BTC with the close at 70% to liquidation, colocation in Tokyo and < 5m LP going? lol
@papertrade_xyz
I love how we all optimized our latency, legs, cost per PAPER and all that…
…and then got fucked by the relayer queue, which wasn't mentioned once in the docs 🙃
How's your 100–200× on BTC with the close at 70% to liquidation, colocation in Tokyo and < 5m LP going? lol
@papertrade_xyz
Looks like someone is already running this at scale:
0x53a42d2d0fdd60bf8f833fb94841349095a74024
Results (by closing balance):
53 real episodes, 45 green
Bought $63.3k, realized +$21.3k
Median +$154 (+15%), mean +$402 (+25%)
p10 −$30, p90 +$889
Worst −$336, best +$3,208
Top 10 episodes = 73% of profit
Max drawdown $336, 4–6 open positions ($4–8k at risk)
Net $19k, $6k/day
Targets: 33 FOMO whale wallets, a fixed ticket per wallet.
FINALLY found the "@FOMO MEV ATTACKER" 🚨
this is the guy destroying your FOMO entries:
0x44c0ba0b734d4b7705fcd07ddae9fbbc078d74dd
They frontrun FOMO buyers actively...
A new victim every minute!!!
they switch addresses every other day. current one:
0xb49deec1a52eea46f3a6a158f8f9b155809b8c44
@seyong your users are being affected by these sandwich attacks every minute. FIX THIS ASAP.
Hey @fomo, @seyong and @RelayProtocol, check your team or partners: someone is front-running your users (sandwich attack) on the Robinhood chain, likely using private order info.
Wallet: 0x44c0ba0b734d4b7705fcd07ddae9fbbc078d74dd
Contract (since Sep 24): 0x68a04a63fd1d8eabf167ef48ed0a0ef06c2374d9
Solver affected: 0xccc88a9d1b4ed6b0eaba998850414b24f1c315be
Impact on your users: ~$14k+ in the first day
Sandwich attacks: 328
Typical lead over your solver: 1–4 blocks
Solver volume hit: ~$412k
Hey @fomo, @seyong and @RelayProtocol, check your team or partners: someone is front-running your users (sandwich attack) on the Robinhood chain, likely using private order info.
Wallet: 0x44c0ba0b734d4b7705fcd07ddae9fbbc078d74dd
Contract (since Sep 24): 0x68a04a63fd1d8eabf167ef48ed0a0ef06c2374d9
Solver affected: 0xccc88a9d1b4ed6b0eaba998850414b24f1c315be
Impact on your users: ~$14k+ in the first day
Sandwich attacks: 328
Typical lead over your solver: 1–4 blocks
Solver volume hit: ~$412k
Outputlayer retweeted
Finally got around to reading this. Great stuff.
As a person that got stuck in morpho markets one too many times, maybe this trick can be used to track borrowers and once they pay back their loans we can insta withdraw right after them in the same block (is this called backrun?).
Or perhaps if a lender withdraws a bit too much from the pool (but not completely), we can still make it out partially depending on risk/comfort levels.
Front running a whale, market decimating withdraw, is a bit more complex (mempool monitoring and gas war I think. Not sure how private mempool complicates this).
I guess this use case is more plebian than monitoring the mempool. I don't think I have the resource to pull that off.
I spent the weekend trying to land in the same block
as someone else's buy. Not the next block, the same one.
Since writing is good for the brain, especially when it is original and done without ai, I need to try to develop this habit and reinforce it by using incentives, e.g. engagement with my articles
lol turns out pretty fun even if play by biological rules, since it's Friday evening, made a nightclub for them to chill
Knowledge, like always killing all fun, fruit fly can’t see and remember full picture to take action, only ~0.5% of that input reaches the mushroom body. And it learns best through the smell channel, which has roughly 30× more input synapses to the mushroom body than the visual channel.
Only the Kenyon cell → MBON synapses. In a live fly, these and only these are plastic during learning, and they are can have ~100 associations
Knowledge, like always killing all fun, fruit fly can’t see and remember full picture to take action, only ~0.5% of that input reaches the mushroom body. And it learns best through the smell channel, which has roughly 30× more input synapses to the mushroom body than the visual channel.
Only the Kenyon cell → MBON synapses. In a live fly, these and only these are plastic during learning, and they are can have ~100 associations
We gave a fly $100 to trade on Polymarket.
It already called today’s pump in the "25 bps increase" on Fed Decision polymarket.
Every second, its next move is decided by 166,700 neurons.
Just dug a bit deeper to see what the actual impact of this “local” meta really is. Dashboard coming soon.
Robinhood memecoins <> Stock Tokens ELI5
>> The tokenized stock = base asset
>> The memecoin = a speculative wrapper that routes demand through it
1. How Robinhood tokenized stocks actually work
• Stock Tokens (e.g. $NVDA or $HIMS) are ERC-20s issued by Robinhood Assets
• They give economic exposure to the real NYSE stock but are legally debt securities, not shares
• You do not own HIMS stock, have no voting rights, and cannot redeem for the actual shares yourself
2. How stock tokens are minted
• Only Authorized Participants (KYB-onboarded partner market makers) can mint or burn tokens directly with the issuer
• Regular users can only buy and sell existing tokens on secondary venues: Uniswap AMMs, fomo app
• The market maker buys the real shares in the traditional market (NYSE hours only)
• They then request the issuer to mint the matching number of on-chain tokens (1 token ≈ 1 share)
• The new tokens are sent to the MM’s wallet and sold into on-chain pools (HIMS/USDG, HIMS/BONER, etc.) to keep the token price close to the real stock
3. Float squeeze
• Because minting requires buying the actual shares on the stock market, it can only happen while the stock market is open
• During market close / weekends the on-chain float is frozen (whatever tokens already exist is the entire supply until market opens)
• MMs decide when to mint by watching the on-chain HIMS.RH x USDG pool versus the NYSE price
• If the token trades at a meaningful premium, they mint and sell. If it trades at a discount they can buy tokens and burn them
• Off-hours they cannot do this, so premiums can balloon (this was what happened ytd with HIMS and AMC)
4. How a memecoin paired with the tokenized stock works (BONER <> HIMS)
• When someone buys $BONER, most sizeable buys route USDG → HIMS.RH pool first, then HIMS.RH → BONER pool
• Important: every net buy of BONER = creates a buy of tokenized HIMS
• Those HIMS tokens get locked inside the BONER/HIMS LP as the other side of the pair. The circulating on-chain float of HIMS shrinks
• BONER’s dollar price is (BONER per HIMS token) × (current HIMS.RH dollar price)
• If HIMS.RH is trading at a huge premium, BONER’s “market cap” is inflated by that phantom premium
5. Off-hours / weekend events (what happened with both AMC and HIMS)
• Demand for the memecoin keeps sucking HIMS tokens into the LP
• The remaining HIMS/USDG pool becomes extremely thin.
• Tokenized HIMS price opens far above the Friday NYSE close because nobody can mint new tokens (the memecoins like BONER looked like it is pumping hard in dollar terms)
• Then when the market re-opens, partner MMs buy real HIMS shares, mint fresh tokens, and dump them into the on-chain pools (which obv the premium will collapse)
• BONER holders lose in USD terms even if the BONER/HIMS ratio itself stays strong or keeps rising
• LP providers can theoretically pull liq and sell the HIMS tokens to help close the premium, but the dominant new-supply source is still the authorized MMs
6. What every memecoin<>stock token’s plans are
• Key goal is to squeeze the shorts on the token pairing
• Degens buy memecoin → the pool “sucks” the tokenised stock tokens out of circulation and locks them as LP
• Persistent demand for the memecoin forces MMs to keep minting more tokenised stock tokens during market hours
• Each mint corresponds to Robinhood (or its partners) buying and vaulting a real stock
• Some stocks have large short interest and over time the growing pile of vaulted/on-chain tokens is supposed to tighten the real-world float available to shorts
7. Important to note
• All the on-chain stock supply is tiny compared with the actual stock
• Minting currently has negligible impact on the real stock price or short squeeze dynamics unless the memecoin demand grows insanely large


















