$SLNH $MSFT A few days ago, I teased some of the Microsoft connections I’d been digging into around Soluna’s Project Kati 2. The response showed that quite a few of you wanted to see the full research.
I’ve also been fairly quiet on X lately, and this is a big reason why. This took a lot more time and focus than I originally expected.
FOLLOWING THE POWER: The Case for Microsoft at Soluna’s Project Kati 2 --> Full 12-part investigation:
perspez.substack.com/p/follo…
I originally thought I could turn all of this into one detailed X post. That stopped making sense once the research kept expanding.
I ended up going through Microsoft Research, EDF, Masdar, Las Majadas, Project Tumbleweed, Fairwater, Ryan Carver, Siemens, Kati 2’s evolution from an 83 MW second phase into a 350+ MW AI campus, and the anonymous tenant now negotiating around its first 100 MW phase.
This has been weeks of digging through filings, research papers, company materials, historical agreements, infrastructure developments and personnel connections. I’ve built it piece by piece, and in the end I decided I’d rather share the full work than squeeze it into a few conclusions on X and strip away the context that makes the thesis interesting.
There was simply too much that would have been left out, so I put everything together as one long-form Substack instead.
12 parts. Weeks of research. One thesis: why so many independent trails around Project Kati 2 keep converging on Microsoft.
Enjoy the deep dive.
$SLNH $MSFT
Guys, I have some really big evidence pointing to a Microsoft–Soluna connection.
I’ve gone much deeper with the research, and I’m honestly surprised by what I found. There’s far too much to fit into an X post, so I’m going to put together a much more detailed deep dive somewhere I can lay out all the findings, sources, and connections properly.
Stay tuned.
$SLNH | How Joint Ventures Could Accelerate Soluna’s 6.3 GW Development Pipeline
Soluna's partnership with Applied Digital at Dorothy 3 offers a clearer picture of how the company intends to finance and develop its expanding AI infrastructure portfolio.
With approximately 6.3 GW in its development pipeline, including around 1.6 GW in planning and development and another 4.5 GW being assessed with power partners, Soluna has opportunities extending far beyond its two flagship AI projects.
Developing infrastructure on that scale requires considerable financial resources, specialized engineering expertise and extensive construction capabilities. Attempting to finance and build every campus independently would consume substantial capital and potentially limit how quickly the company could expand.
Joint ventures offer a practical way to address those requirements.
At Dorothy 3, Applied Digital brings substantial experience in hyperscale construction and capital formation, alongside established supplier relationships. Soluna contributes its site, renewable-power infrastructure and expertise in integrating large computing loads with the electricity grid.
The proposed project also has a potential tenant, ChronoScale, which has signed a non-binding letter of intent for a triple-net lease.
At Kati 2, Metrobloks contributes its own data center development and operational capabilities through a separately structured partnership.
By combining resources with established industry partners, Soluna can pursue multiple developments without having to provide the full amount of capital or execute every aspect of construction independently.
Rather than concentrating its resources on one major project and waiting for that facility to become operational before advancing the next, Soluna can pursue different construction schedules, financing arrangements and customer agreements across its portfolio.
As individual facilities enter operation, they could begin generating recurring revenue while other projects remain under development.
Over time, this approach could produce several important advantages:
- Faster expansion: Multiple AI campuses can advance simultaneously instead of competing for the same limited financial and operational resources.
- More efficient financing: Sharing project-level capital requirements can reduce the amount Soluna needs to raise directly, preserving financial flexibility for additional developments.
- Growing recurring income: Completed facilities could progressively contribute new revenue streams and distributable cash flow.
- Greater financial capacity: A larger portfolio of operating assets and established rental income could improve access to institutional financing and support reinvestment into subsequent projects.
- Improved execution: Experience gained through successive developments could help standardize engineering, procurement and construction processes, potentially reducing costs and shortening delivery schedules.
Soluna also enters this transition with an existing operating business. Its Bitcoin hosting facilities provide an established revenue base, while the acquisition of the 150 MW Briscoe Wind Farm and consolidation of Dorothy 1 have strengthened its ownership of energy and computing infrastructure.
At Dorothy 3, the company's economic interests could extend beyond its equity stake in the proposed data center through its ownership of the adjacent wind generation asset, depending on the final power-supply agreements.
Another important aspect of the strategy is the development of Soluna's internal hyperscale organization.
The company has recruited Ryan Carver as Chief Development Officer following his experience leading major AI data center construction programs at Microsoft, including work on the Fairwater campus in Wisconsin.
Neil Robinson subsequently joined as Vice President of Construction Management, also from Microsoft, where he served as Director of AI Construction.
Big news this week: @SolunaHoldings and @APLDdigital are partnering to build a 50 MW critical IT AI data center at Project Dorothy 3 in Briscoe County, Texas, powered by the Briscoe Wind Farm.
@ChronoScaleCorp has signed an LOI to lease it.
It’s been quite a year:
- Acquired the Briscoe Wind Farm
- Fully consolidated the Dorothy 1 campus
- Delivered Kati 1 on time and on budget
- Signed a JV with Metrobloks at Kati 2
- Energized 206 MW across Texas and Kentucky
- Had 266 MW conditionally classified as Base Load in - ERCOT Batch Zero
- Secured land for Dorothy 3
- Added new partners and a stronger team
Now we’re partnering with one of the most recognized names in AI infrastructure. And we’re not done yet.
solunacomputing.com/news/sol…
#Soluna #RenewableComputing #SLNH $SLNH
@perspez @disruptorinvest @power_analys1s @McnallieM @blockspace @cazenove_uk
Soluna has additionally appointed Ben J. Carranza, P.E., as Director of Community Engagement. His background in energy infrastructure and regulatory affairs, including previous leadership responsibilities at Kinder Morgan, adds experience in managing relationships with local communities and public authorities.
Together, these appointments strengthen capabilities that become increasingly important when developing several large AI campuses simultaneously.
Working alongside Applied Digital and Metrobloks gives Soluna access to experienced development organizations while its own team builds the practical knowledge and relationships needed to manage future projects.
That experience could eventually influence how much of each development Soluna is able to retain.
As the company establishes a stronger track record, expands its operating portfolio and develops deeper institutional financing relationships, it may become better positioned to undertake projects with larger ownership stakes.
The Applied Digital agreement currently concerns the first 50 MW of critical IT capacity at Dorothy 3, with Soluna expected to retain 49% of the project company.
It does not establish the ownership structure for the remaining capacity of the planned 300 MW-plus campus.
During his October 21 Blockspace Live interview, John Belizaire explained that later Dorothy 3 phases could be developed with Applied Digital or independently. Future phases could also involve different equity arrangements if the companies negotiate revised terms.
Belizaire further confirmed that Soluna intends to pursue some developments with 100% ownership.
The company therefore retains flexibility to select the most attractive structure for individual projects. Joint ventures may continue to offer advantages where experienced partners can accelerate construction or improve financing terms, while greater ownership could become more attractive as Soluna's internal capabilities and financial resources expand.
The strategy may also create opportunities beyond the company's existing development pipeline.
One particularly interesting detail from Belizaire's Blockspace interview was that Applied Digital initiated discussions with Soluna. Its CFO contacted Belizaire after becoming familiar with the company's projects and development plans.
That suggests Soluna's approach is beginning to attract interest from established infrastructure developers actively seeking additional data center capacity.
Successful partnerships could generate further interest from AI customers, institutional investors and renewable-energy producers looking to develop computing infrastructure near their existing power assets.
Soluna already maintains relationships with major independent power producers and has indicated that it frequently explores multiple development opportunities across their portfolios.
As the company demonstrates its ability to deliver financed, leased and operating AI facilities, those relationships could produce additional projects.
The recruitment of experienced development and construction executives should further strengthen Soluna's ability to evaluate and pursue new opportunities.
Its pipeline has already expanded from approximately 4.3 GW earlier in 2026 to 6.3 GW. Successful execution at Kati 2 and Dorothy 3 could help attract additional opportunities beyond that existing portfolio.
A growing number of operating facilities would also strengthen Soluna's position when negotiating future partnerships and financing arrangements.
Perspez retweeted
Big news this week: @SolunaHoldings and @APLDdigital are partnering to build a 50 MW critical IT AI data center at Project Dorothy 3 in Briscoe County, Texas, powered by the Briscoe Wind Farm.
@ChronoScaleCorp has signed an LOI to lease it.
It’s been quite a year:
- Acquired the Briscoe Wind Farm
- Fully consolidated the Dorothy 1 campus
- Delivered Kati 1 on time and on budget
- Signed a JV with Metrobloks at Kati 2
- Energized 206 MW across Texas and Kentucky
- Had 266 MW conditionally classified as Base Load in - ERCOT Batch Zero
- Secured land for Dorothy 3
- Added new partners and a stronger team
Now we’re partnering with one of the most recognized names in AI infrastructure. And we’re not done yet.
solunacomputing.com/news/sol…
#Soluna #RenewableComputing #SLNH $SLNH
@perspez @disruptorinvest @power_analys1s @McnallieM @blockspace @cazenove_uk
Perspez retweeted
The press release left the Dorothy 3 contribution blank. The 8-K put $18.75 million on the ground sublease for the 49% on $SLNH . $APLD matches it with about $19.5 million cash. They also take a warrant on 7.6 million shares at $0.74, above yesterday’s close, and agreed not to short it for a year or until the stock hits $10.
The partner is paying for the seat with cash and taking an option on the upside, not free shares today. First time the Dorothy 3 land got a hard number next to a named AI builder.
The land and the wind are what got them to call.
Perspez retweeted
K2. JV and LOI. Stay tuned.
D3. JV and LOI. Stay tuned.
$SLNH @SolunaHoldings
Perspez retweeted
$SLNH @SolunaHoldings CEO @jbelizaireCEO joins us on the live show today talking about their joint venture with @APLDdigital
also:
☑️ $IREN 300MW in EU (Spain)
☑️ $SPCX massive earnings: $1 trillion revenue in 2027?
xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1NGarogMr…
$SLNH $APLD | Soluna and Applied Digital Strike 50 MW AI Data Center Deal — The ChronoScale Connection Is Now Confirmed (Impressive milestone for Soluna. Well done, @jbelizaireCEO!)
On October 21, Soluna Holdings announced a definitive transaction agreement with Applied Digital ($APLD) to establish a joint venture for the development of a 50 MW critical IT AI/HPC data center at Project Dorothy 3 in Briscoe County, Texas.
For those who have followed the ChronoScale developments we examined last week, today's announcement is particularly significant.
What previously appeared through regulatory filings and corporate connections has now developed into a publicly announced commercial agreement.
The transaction
Under the proposed joint venture structure:
- Applied Digital — 51% ownership: Expected to contribute development capital and bring its experience building and operating large-scale AI infrastructure.
- Soluna — 49% ownership: Expected to contribute a portion of its Dorothy 3 site, including land and power-related project assets.
- Initial development — 50 MW critical IT: A purpose-built AI/HPC facility drawing electricity from both the 150 MW Briscoe Wind Farm and the ERCOT grid.
- Proposed tenant — ChronoScale ($CHRN): Applied Digital's majority-owned AI compute subsidiary has signed a non-binding letter of intent for a triple-net lease.
- Expected closing — Q4 2026: Subject to the remaining approvals, definitive agreements and other closing conditions.
The arrangement brings together two complementary capabilities.
Soluna has spent years assembling renewable generation, land, interconnection infrastructure and operational experience at Dorothy. Applied Digital brings a track record in developing institutional-scale AI data centers, securing tenants and arranging construction financing.
For Soluna, the proposed structure creates a route to participate in a capital-intensive AI development while bringing in a partner expected to fund its development.
The ChronoScale connection: How we got here
Several developments now form a revealing timeline.
August 27: ChronoScale announced plans for a 50 MW AI computing deployment in North America in partnership with Microsoft. The deployment was expected to feature NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 systems and advanced liquid cooling.
September 8: The Texas Comptroller's official data center registry recorded Project Dorothy 3A under STX-01 LLC, explicitly identifying ChronoScale Corporation as the occupant.
September 14: Soluna announced that ERCOT had conditionally classified 100 MW at its existing Dorothy campus as Base Load under Batch Zero. The company also confirmed that an additional 50 MW interconnection request was under study.
October 21: Soluna publicly confirmed its agreement with Applied Digital to develop the 50 MW Dorothy 3 project, alongside ChronoScale's letter of intent to lease the facility.
The significance of today's announcement is that the ChronoScale–Dorothy 3 relationship is no longer merely an inference drawn from administrative records.
It is now explicitly acknowledged by Soluna in a transaction announcement.
There is still an important distinction concerning Microsoft. ChronoScale's previously announced 50 MW Microsoft deployment is documented, but today's release does not identify Microsoft as the ultimate customer at Dorothy 3 or establish that the two 50 MW developments are the same project.
That remains an interesting connection to monitor.
Why this matters for Soluna shareholders
The economics of AI data center development are fundamentally different from Bitcoin hosting.
A modern, high-density AI facility requires substantial investment in electrical infrastructure, cooling, buildings and supporting systems. Financing and development expertise are therefore as important as securing land and electricity.
Today's agreement addresses an important part of that challenge.
$SLNH | Dorothy 3: The 50 MW Timeline, ChronoScale, Microsoft and an $8B+ Development
I've been comparing Soluna's Dorothy 3 announcements with recent Texas government records and ChronoScale's SEC filings.
The chronology is particularly interesting. Soluna began working on a 50 MW expansion months before ChronoScale appeared in the state's Dorothy 3A registration, and several commercial developments have followed.
Here's how the events line up:
April 2026 – Soluna acquires Briscoe Wind Farm
Soluna completes its $53M acquisition of the 150 MW Briscoe Wind Farm in Texas, giving the company ownership of the renewable generation asset supporting its existing Dorothy campus and future expansion.
May 7 – Dorothy 3's initial 50 MW study
In its April business update, Soluna specifically reports that an initial 50 MW expansion interconnection load study is underway for Project Dorothy 3 with Golden Spread Electric Cooperative and Oncor.
At this stage, approximately 400 acres are also under LOI, with fiber studies and community engagement underway.
August 6 – ChronoScale signs with Microsoft
ChronoScale enters into a GPU Services Agreement with Microsoft for approximately 50 MW of AI compute capacity at a Texas data center.
The deployment will use NVIDIA GB300 systems and advanced liquid cooling.
August 21–24 – Two important developments
ChronoScale amends its Microsoft agreement, extending the arrangement to approximately three years.
On August 24, Soluna announces the completed acquisition of 397 acres for Dorothy 3, adjacent to its existing data centers and the Briscoe Wind Farm.
The wind farm's substation is located directly across from the acquired property, providing an important infrastructure advantage for the planned 300 MW AI campus.
August 27 – Microsoft partnership publicly announced
ChronoScale formally announces its 50 MW AI infrastructure partnership with Microsoft.
September 8 – Project Dorothy 3A appears in Texas records
This is one of the most interesting findings.
The Texas Comptroller's official qualifying data center registry lists:
- Facility: Project Dorothy 3A
- Effective date: September 8, 2026
- Owner: STX-01 LLC
- Operator: STX-01 LLC
- Occupant: ChronoScale Corporation
- Registration: DC474523
We now have ChronoScale specifically identified in a government record for Dorothy 3A.
September 14 – Soluna confirms formal 50 MW interconnection request
Soluna announces that its existing 100 MW Dorothy campus has received conditional Base Load classification under ERCOT's Batch Zero process.
The same release confirms that Soluna has formally submitted an additional 50 MW load interconnection request at Dorothy, with the transmission provider already studying it.
Importantly, Soluna's May update had already identified an initial 50 MW interconnection study specifically under Dorothy 3.
September 23 – Briscoe County files its $8B+ development notice
The county files a public notice ahead of its November 9 meeting.
The document identifies:
- Approximately 403.397 acres near the existing Dorothy facilities.
- Proposed Reinvestment Zone #6.
- More than $8 billion in estimated data center improvements, equipment and associated infrastructure.
- Land owned by Soluna Dorothy 3 Energy ServiceCo. LLC and Soluna DV BNSF Energy HoldCo. LLC.
- Tax abatement applications involving STX-01 LLC, identified as a Soluna subsidiary.
The same STX-01 entity named in the Dorothy 3A registration now appears in the county's tax incentive process.
October 2026 – Soluna presents Dorothy 3's phased development
At its Silverton Open House, Soluna displays the campus development plan:
- Phase 1: 75 MW
- Phase 2: 75 MW
- Phase 3: 150 MW
That initial 75 MW phase is particularly interesting alongside ChronoScale's approximately 50 MW Microsoft deployment.
Replying to @perspez @jbelizaireCEO
The proposed triple-net lease is also worth watching. Under a typical triple-net structure, the tenant assumes specified property-related expenses in addition to rent, potentially supporting more predictable property-level economics for the owner.
The actual financial impact will depend on the definitive lease terms, financing arrangements and development costs, none of which have been fully disclosed.
Importantly, the transaction agreement has been signed, but the joint venture has not yet closed. ChronoScale's lease remains non-binding, and Briscoe County's tax abatement approval is among the outstanding conditions.
The broader opportunity at Dorothy 3
Dorothy 3 has been planned as a much larger AI/HPC campus, with approximately 300 MW of potential development capacity.
The initial 50 MW project represents a possible first commercial step into that larger opportunity.
Soluna's ownership of the 150 MW Briscoe Wind Farm gives the company an established renewable generation asset alongside its computing infrastructure. Combining wind generation with grid electricity is particularly relevant for AI workloads that require continuous, reliable power.
Meanwhile, Project Kati 2 continues along its separate development path with Metrobloks.
With Applied Digital now entering the Dorothy 3 picture, Soluna has attracted two specialized infrastructure development partners across its principal Texas AI campuses.
My takeaway
For years, Soluna's investment thesis has centered on bringing computing demand to existing renewable generation.
Today's announcement provides tangible evidence that this strategy can attract an established AI data center developer willing to negotiate a majority-owned joint venture around Soluna's energy and land assets.
There is still work ahead before the project becomes a financed, contracted and operating data center.
But a definitive transaction agreement with Applied Digital, combined with an identified prospective tenant in ChronoScale, represents meaningful commercial progress.
And for investors who followed the Dorothy 3A and ChronoScale filings before today's announcement, the connection is now considerably clearer.
Replying to @perspez @jbelizaireCEO
Today's agreement addresses an important part of that challenge.
The proposed triple-net lease is also worth watching. Under a typical triple-net structure, the tenant assumes specified property-related expenses in addition to rent, potentially supporting more predictable property-level economics for the owner.
The actual financial impact will depend on the definitive lease terms, financing arrangements and development costs, none of which have been fully disclosed.
Importantly, the transaction agreement has been signed, but the joint venture has not yet closed. ChronoScale's lease remains non-binding, and Briscoe County's tax abatement approval is among the outstanding conditions.
The broader opportunity at Dorothy 3
Dorothy 3 has been planned as a much larger AI/HPC campus, with approximately 300 MW of potential development capacity.
The initial 50 MW project represents a possible first commercial step into that larger opportunity.
Soluna's ownership of the 150 MW Briscoe Wind Farm gives the company an established renewable generation asset alongside its computing infrastructure. Combining wind generation with grid electricity is particularly relevant for AI workloads that require continuous, reliable power.
Meanwhile, Project Kati 2 continues along its separate development path with Metrobloks.
With Applied Digital now entering the Dorothy 3 picture, Soluna has attracted two specialized infrastructure development partners across its principal Texas AI campuses.
My takeaway
For years, Soluna's investment thesis has centered on bringing computing demand to existing renewable generation.
Today's announcement provides tangible evidence that this strategy can attract an established AI data center developer willing to negotiate a majority-owned joint venture around Soluna's energy and land assets.
There is still work ahead before the project becomes a financed, contracted and operating data center.
But a definitive transaction agreement with Applied Digital, combined with an identified prospective tenant in ChronoScale, represents meaningful commercial progress.
And for investors who followed the Dorothy 3A and ChronoScale filings before today's announcement, the connection is now considerably clearer.
$SLNH | Former Google Infrastructure Executive Dan Golding Joins Soluna’s Board as AI Development Advances
Soluna Holdings announced today that shareholders have elected Dan Golding, a former Google infrastructure executive and a veteran of the global data center industry, to its Board of Directors following the company's October 16 annual meeting.
The appointment deserves attention, particularly given Golding's background and his longstanding involvement with Soluna's AI infrastructure strategy.
Golding has served on Soluna's Advisory Board since November 2023, meaning he has spent nearly three years working with management as the company developed its approach to renewable-powered AI data centers. His election now formalizes that relationship at the board level, giving Soluna greater access to his expertise in corporate oversight and strategic decision-making.
His professional background is substantial:
- Google (2014–2023): Held senior infrastructure leadership positions, including Managing Director of Global Infrastructure. His experience extended across Google's global networking and advanced data center technology teams.
- $25 billion+ in data center infrastructure: According to his industry biographies, Golding participated in engineering, design and construction teams responsible for more than $25 billion in data center projects, representing thousands of megawatts of infrastructure.
- $600 million+ in leasing transactions: His background includes negotiating, evaluating and participating in wholesale data center leasing transactions exceeding $600 million.
- Iron Mountain and RagingWire (now NTT Data Centers): Previously held senior engineering and operational leadership positions at major data center operators.
- ASG: Currently serves as Chief Technology Officer, advising on digital infrastructure, hyperscale development and technology strategy.
What makes this appointment particularly relevant is the combination of engineering, commercial and operational experience.
Developing a hyperscale AI campus requires considerably more than securing land and electricity. Developers must translate customer requirements into facilities capable of supporting increasingly demanding computing workloads, while coordinating electrical infrastructure, cooling, networking, construction schedules and financing.
These are areas where Golding has spent much of his career.
For Soluna, that expertise could be valuable across several priorities:
1. Project Kati 2: Supporting decisions around hyperscale campus architecture, high-density computing requirements, power resilience, technical specifications and phased development.
2. Project Dorothy 3: Providing additional technical and strategic oversight as Soluna advances its next major AI infrastructure campus.
3. Customer negotiations: Helping management understand how sophisticated hyperscale and AI infrastructure customers evaluate proposed facilities, including operational reliability, deployment timelines, technical flexibility and commercial requirements.
4. Project execution and financing: Applying experience with large-scale developments and leasing transactions to help Soluna structure projects that meet customer expectations and the requirements of infrastructure capital providers.
An additional detail worth highlighting is Golding's public commentary on the data center industry. Through his Age of Fake Datacenters research series, he has emphasized the importance of understanding actual computing workloads and distinguishing executable infrastructure developments from speculative project announcements.
That perspective is particularly relevant as the industry experiences unprecedented AI infrastructure investment and competition for available power.
Soluna welcomes Dan Golding to its Board of Directors.
30+ years in data centers and digital infrastructure. Former Google engineering leader. Soluna Advisory Board member since 2023.
As CEO John Belizaire put it: “He brings a builder’s perspective to the Board and is someone who understands the technical demands of large-scale data centers and the decisions behind them.”
Dan’s own framing is equally direct: “Soluna is approaching AI infrastructure from the power side, which is where many of the industry’s hardest problems begin.”
Full announcement: solunacomputing.com/news/dan…
$SLNH
$slnh There is also an interesting complement within Soluna's existing Board. William Hazelip brings extensive experience in energy infrastructure and electric transmission through National Grid, while Golding contributes deep expertise from the hyperscale data center and networking side of the industry.
Together, these backgrounds strengthen the range of expertise available to a company whose business model sits directly at the intersection of electricity generation and advanced computing.
Perhaps the most meaningful aspect of today's announcement is the continuity.
Golding is already familiar with Soluna's business model, its management team and the evolution of its AI development strategy. John Belizaire specifically acknowledged that Golding has helped the company understand customer requirements and the practical demands of delivering large-scale data centers.
His move from advisor to director therefore represents an expansion of an established working relationship rather than the introduction of an unfamiliar outside executive.
For shareholders following Kati 2 and Dorothy 3, this is a constructive development. Soluna is strengthening its board-level technical expertise with someone who has firsthand experience designing, developing, operating and commercially evaluating the type of infrastructure the company intends to build.
As Soluna progresses toward tenant agreements, project financing and construction, the quality of its technical judgment and execution will become increasingly important.
Bringing that depth of hyperscale experience into the Board is a meaningful addition to Soluna's long-term AI infrastructure ambitions.
$SLNH | The Selloff, the Fundamentals, and Why I Remain Conviction-Bullish on Soluna
Last week, @jbelizaireCEO made it clear that nothing fundamental has changed in Soluna's business outlook. The company continues to execute its strategy, yet the stock has been trading as though its long-term opportunity has somehow deteriorated.
I believe the recent selloff is the result of several factors converging at once, creating an almost perfect storm of negative sentiment.
First, the macro environment. Rising Treasury yields and renewed concerns about interest rates have put considerable pressure on growth stocks, particularly smaller companies tied to capital-intensive AI infrastructure development. Soluna has not been immune to that broader market weakness.
Second, disappointment over the Kati 2 tenant timeline. Many short-term investors expected a definitive agreement during Q3. When that did not materialize, frustration turned into speculation about substantial delays. But missing an anticipated announcement window does not necessarily mean negotiations have stalled or that the underlying project has deteriorated.
Third, dilution concerns. Some investors expected a major tenant announcement before the shareholder vote to expand the company's authorized common shares to one billion. The approval has created additional anxiety about future dilution, even though increasing authorized shares is not the same as actually issuing them. Financing flexibility and dilution risk need to be evaluated separately.
Fourth, the psychological impact of trading below $1. This has introduced another layer of uncertainty, with investors increasingly discussing potential Nasdaq compliance issues, delisting and reverse splits. These concerns can reinforce selling pressure even though trading below $1 does not trigger immediate delisting.
Finally, short selling and momentum-driven trading. I suspect bearish positioning has contributed to the pressure, particularly in an environment where uncertainty makes less-informed shareholders more vulnerable to panic. The precise contribution of short sellers is difficult to establish, but the conditions have certainly been favorable for bearish speculation.
What I find remarkable is how little attention is being paid to the progress Soluna has already made.
Kati 1 has reached its full 83 MW operating capacity. The company has consolidated ownership of Project Dorothy 1 and acquired the 150 MW Briscoe Wind Farm. Its AI development pipeline has expanded, while Kati 2 and Dorothy 3 have secured important regulatory and development milestones.
The company also reported $113.4 million in unrestricted cash at the end of Q2, providing a meaningful financial cushion as it advances its AI strategy. That figure is a historical balance, not a guarantee of today's available liquidity, but it demonstrates how significantly Soluna strengthened its balance sheet earlier this year.
And then there is the part I believe the market is seriously underestimating.
Kati 2 and Dorothy 3 are progressing in parallel, not sequentially.
We are looking at two major AI campuses with approximately 650 MW of planned critical IT capacity combined. Kati 2 already has a tenant LOI, while Dorothy 3 has attracted considerable customer interest.
My expectation is that the eventual commercial agreements for these developments could arrive much closer together than the market currently anticipates.
Furthermore, the first definitive agreement would represent far more than an isolated milestone. It could validate Soluna's development model, strengthen its ability to secure project-level financing and create momentum for subsequent phases and additional tenant agreements.
In my view, that is where the potential acceleration begins.
Nothing fundamental has changed about @SolunaHoldings.
We keep pushin’
Stay tuned.
$SLNH
$SLNH I also remain convinced that Microsoft is a leading candidate for Kati 2, potentially with a role at Dorothy 3 as well, unless another hyperscaler takes part of the capacity. This remains my investment thesis rather than a confirmed customer relationship, but the technical direction of the projects, the company's positioning and the hyperscale expertise it has brought into its leadership reinforce that conviction.
More importantly, the structural opportunity has not disappeared.
AI infrastructure investment has not suddenly stopped. The industry continues to face enormous requirements for electricity, grid access, computing capacity and accelerated deployment schedules.
That environment increasingly favors developers capable of delivering power efficiently and reliably.
Soluna's combination of behind-the-meter renewable generation, grid connectivity, flexible operations and hybrid power architecture gives it a differentiated position in a market where speed to power is becoming one of the most valuable competitive advantages.
Of course, execution risk remains. Tenant agreements still need to be finalized, financing secured and projects delivered. None of those milestones should be taken for granted.
But I see little evidence that the fundamental investment thesis has deteriorated in proportion to the share-price decline. If anything, the company's operational progress, expanding asset base and growing AI development capabilities have strengthened its position.
I consider the current extreme bearish sentiment an attractive opportunity to accumulate shares for investors who understand what they own and can tolerate the volatility.
Markets frequently become overly focused on what has not happened yet, while overlooking what is already being built.
Eventually, attention can return to execution, signed contracts and the value of the underlying infrastructure.
The share price has changed dramatically. My long-term conviction has not.
Sometimes, the wiser decision is to be contrarian when the market is dominated by fear.
$SLNH | Microsoft's Nscale Withdrawal Puts a Premium on AI Infrastructure That Can Deliver Power Before 2030
Microsoft's reported withdrawal from Nscale's planned data center in Essex offers a revealing glimpse into how the economics of AI infrastructure are changing. The British company's proposed facility in Loughton has encountered repeated delays, and electricity network authorities reportedly do not expect to supply the site with power until the 2030s.
The Telegraph first reported Microsoft's decision, with Bloomberg and Reuters subsequently covering the development. Although Microsoft has not publicly explained its withdrawal, the problems surrounding the project's electricity connection raise an increasingly consequential question for the industry: how much is future data center capacity worth when a customer cannot be certain when it will become operational?
The implications extend well beyond Nscale. Hyperscalers are committing enormous amounts of capital to AI computing infrastructure, frequently planning deployments around successive generations of increasingly powerful and expensive accelerators. Those investments are sensitive to timing. A data center that becomes operational in 2028 can support years of workloads before another facility awaiting grid access in 2031 receives its first megawatt.
For customers making long-term infrastructure commitments, several years of delay can materially change the financial assumptions behind a project. GPUs depreciate, new architectures improve performance per watt, and the opportunity to generate revenue from current-generation computing equipment does not wait for utilities to complete their transmission upgrades.
This increasingly favors developers with credible near-term power delivery schedules over those whose principal assets remain land, development plans and distant interconnection dates.
Soluna Holdings (NASDAQ: SLNH) has been positioning itself around precisely this constraint.
The company's approach differs from conventional data center development, where securing a suitable site can be followed by years of negotiations over electricity supply and grid capacity. Soluna develops computing infrastructure alongside existing renewable generation, using behind-the-meter arrangements to access electricity close to its source while retaining the ability to interact with the wider grid.
That model has already been deployed commercially, although Soluna's operating facilities currently serve primarily Bitcoin-related computing rather than high-density AI workloads.
In September, Soluna completed the final 14 MW of Project Kati 1 in Willacy County, Texas, bringing the campus to its full 83 MW operating capacity and increasing the company's total energized computing portfolio to approximately 206 MW. According to Soluna, every phase of Kati 1 was delivered on schedule, with infrastructure costs remaining within budget.
The achievement matters beyond the additional operating capacity. It provides evidence of the company's ability to build, energize and manage substantial computing loads within the Texas electricity market, a record that becomes relevant when prospective AI customers evaluate execution risk.
September also brought a significant development on the regulatory side. ERCOT conditionally classified the full 166 MW Kati campus and 100 MW at Project Dorothy as Base Load under its Batch Zero framework, preserving their respective interconnection positions subject to verification.
These classifications cover 266 MW of capacity across the two campuses, including existing operating facilities. At Kati, 83 MW is associated with the planned AI expansion at Kati 2. They do not mean that 266 MW of new AI infrastructure is ready for immediate deployment, or that the larger development pipeline has secured all the electricity it requires.
Their importance is more specific: Soluna is advancing its AI developments from established electrical infrastructure and previously studied interconnection positions, rather than beginning the entire process with an unconnected site.
That distinction becomes particularly relevant at Project Kati 2.
Developed in partnership with Metrobloks, Kati 2 is planned as a high-density AI campus with an initial phase exceeding 100 MW of critical IT capacity and a further 250 MW targeted for subsequent development.
The company has progressed through design development, brought a general contractor into the process and secured commitments for certain long-lead electrical equipment. Engineering work is also underway to expand the Las Majadas substation by an additional 100 MW in support of future phases.
One of the more consequential developments concerns the project's electricity architecture. Soluna has executed an access agreement with a natural gas pipeline operator and begun engineering the lateral connection to the site.
That agreement does not establish a completed onsite generation facility or guarantee future gas-fired electricity output. It does, however, move an important part of the project's supplemental power strategy into a more concrete development stage.
Kati 2 is being designed around a combination of renewable generation, grid access, onsite gas-fired generation and energy storage. The intention is to provide the continuous and resilient electricity supply required by modern AI computing, including workloads that cannot simply be interrupted whenever wind generation declines.
It is an important evolution of the behind-the-meter model Soluna established through Bitcoin hosting. AI infrastructure requires a considerably different operating profile, with higher power densities, more demanding cooling systems and stricter availability requirements.
On the commercial side, Soluna has signed a letter of intent with a prospective Kati 2 tenant and has been negotiating the terms of a definitive lease. The company has previously described a construction period of approximately 15 months from contract signing, subject to customer requirements and execution conditions.
That places a potential initial delivery window in late 2027 or early 2028, provided the remaining contractual, financing and infrastructure milestones progress as planned. The timetable is still conditional, but it illustrates why Kati 2 could become more attractive as the market reassesses projects whose electricity connections are several years further away.
Soluna has a second major development opportunity at Project Dorothy 3 in Briscoe County.
In August, the company completed the acquisition of 397 acres adjacent to its existing Dorothy operations and the 150 MW Briscoe Wind Farm, which it acquired earlier this year. The property is intended to support a new AI campus with potential capacity of up to 300 MW.
The wind farm's substation sits directly across from the acquired land. Soluna therefore controls an unusually valuable combination of existing electricity generation, operating computing infrastructure and adjacent development property.
Dorothy 3 still requires additional engineering, utility coordination, commercial commitments and financing before its proposed AI capacity can be delivered. The existing wind farm cannot independently provide the continuous power needed for a 300 MW AI campus. Nevertheless, ownership of the generation asset and nearby land removes several uncertainties that other developers must resolve before construction can begin.
The decision to appoint Ryan Carver as Chief Development Officer adds another dimension to Soluna's development strategy.
Carver previously served as Microsoft's Senior Director of AI Construction and Site Development, where his responsibilities included the company's Fairwater campus in Wisconsin. His experience overseeing hyperscale construction programs gives Soluna direct exposure to the technical, procurement and scheduling standards used by some of the industry's most demanding customers.
For a company seeking to move from Bitcoin hosting into purpose-built AI infrastructure, that experience is relevant to its ability to turn proposed capacity into facilities that customers can actually occupy.
The investment implications reach beyond construction schedules.
Electricity availability increasingly influences where hyperscalers deploy capital, which developers can secure long-term leases and how lenders assess the probability that a project will begin generating cash flow on schedule.
A campus capable of supporting commercial AI operations in 2028 may have a considerable economic advantage over one facing an uncertain 2031 grid connection, even where the latter offers greater theoretical capacity.
Earlier delivery can bring forward rental income, reduce exposure to changing hardware requirements and give tenants greater confidence in their deployment plans. Those advantages can influence both lease negotiations and the financing terms available to infrastructure developers.
For Soluna, this creates the possibility that its existing electrical assets, previously established interconnection positions and relatively advanced development work will attract greater attention as hyperscalers become more selective about delivery risk.
There is no indication that Microsoft's withdrawal from the Essex project is connected to Soluna, nor should a British computing requirement automatically be viewed as demand that can relocate to Texas. The more important development is the potential shift in how customers and investors compare competing infrastructure projects.
Soluna's remaining milestones are substantial. Kati 2 needs a binding customer agreement, project financing, completion of its supplemental power infrastructure and successful construction of an AI facility far more complex than its existing Bitcoin operations. Dorothy 3 has an even longer development path ahead.
Yet the company has already assembled several of the assets that are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain: operating sites, access to renewable generation, established interconnection infrastructure, development land and a team with direct hyperscale construction experience.
Microsoft's reported decision at Nscale underscores the commercial consequences of electricity infrastructure failing to keep pace with AI deployment schedules. For developers targeting 2027–2028, it may also improve the competitive environment at a particularly important moment.
As the industry moves from announcing gigawatts of proposed capacity to financing and occupying actual facilities, investors may increasingly distinguish between developers with ambitious long-term pipelines and those positioned to deliver usable megawatts within the next two years.
Soluna's opportunity is to turn that timing advantage into signed leases, funded construction and operating AI capacity. If it succeeds, the value of its existing power infrastructure could look substantially different from how the market assesses it today.
Their importance is more specific: Soluna is advancing its AI developments from established electrical infrastructure and previously studied interconnection positions, rather than beginning the entire process with an unconnected site.
That distinction becomes particularly relevant at Project Kati 2.
Developed in partnership with Metrobloks, Kati 2 is planned as a high-density AI campus with an initial phase exceeding 100 MW of critical IT capacity and a further 250 MW targeted for subsequent development.
The company has progressed through design development, brought a general contractor into the process and secured commitments for certain long-lead electrical equipment. Engineering work is also underway to expand the Las Majadas substation by an additional 100 MW in support of future phases.
One of the more consequential developments concerns the project's electricity architecture. Soluna has executed an access agreement with a natural gas pipeline operator and begun engineering the lateral connection to the site.
That agreement does not establish a completed onsite generation facility or guarantee future gas-fired electricity output. It does, however, move an important part of the project's supplemental power strategy into a more concrete development stage.
Kati 2 is being designed around a combination of renewable generation, grid access, onsite gas-fired generation and energy storage. The intention is to provide the continuous and resilient electricity supply required by modern AI computing, including workloads that cannot simply be interrupted whenever wind generation declines.
It is an important evolution of the behind-the-meter model Soluna established through Bitcoin hosting. AI infrastructure requires a considerably different operating profile, with higher power densities, more demanding cooling systems and stricter availability requirements.
On the commercial side, Soluna has signed a letter of intent with a prospective Kati 2 tenant and has been negotiating the terms of a definitive lease. The company has previously described a construction period of approximately 15 months from contract signing, subject to customer requirements and execution conditions.
That places a potential initial delivery window in late 2027 or early 2028, provided the remaining contractual, financing and infrastructure milestones progress as planned. The timetable is still conditional, but it illustrates why Kati 2 could become more attractive as the market reassesses projects whose electricity connections are several years further away.
Soluna has a second major development opportunity at Project Dorothy 3 in Briscoe County.
In August, the company completed the acquisition of 397 acres adjacent to its existing Dorothy operations and the 150 MW Briscoe Wind Farm, which it acquired earlier this year. The property is intended to support a new AI campus with potential capacity of up to 300 MW.
The wind farm's substation sits directly across from the acquired land. Soluna therefore controls an unusually valuable combination of existing electricity generation, operating computing infrastructure and adjacent development property.
Dorothy 3 still requires additional engineering, utility coordination, commercial commitments and financing before its proposed AI capacity can be delivered. The existing wind farm cannot independently provide the continuous power needed for a 300 MW AI campus. Nevertheless, ownership of the generation asset and nearby land removes several uncertainties that other developers must resolve before construction can begin.
The decision to appoint Ryan Carver as Chief Development Officer adds another dimension to Soluna's development strategy.
Carver previously served as Microsoft's Senior Director of AI Construction and Site Development, where his responsibilities included the company's Fairwater campus in Wisconsin. His experience overseeing hyperscale construction programs gives Soluna direct exposure to the technical, procurement and scheduling standards used by some of the industry's most demanding customers.
For a company seeking to move from Bitcoin hosting into purpose-built AI infrastructure, that experience is relevant to its ability to turn proposed capacity into facilities that customers can actually occupy.
The investment implications reach beyond construction schedules.
Electricity availability increasingly influences where hyperscalers deploy capital, which developers can secure long-term leases and how lenders assess the probability that a project will begin generating cash flow on schedule.
A campus capable of supporting commercial AI operations in 2028 may have a considerable economic advantage over one facing an uncertain 2031 grid connection, even where the latter offers greater theoretical capacity.
Earlier delivery can bring forward rental income, reduce exposure to changing hardware requirements and give tenants greater confidence in their deployment plans. Those advantages can influence both lease negotiations and the financing terms available to infrastructure developers.
For Soluna, this creates the possibility that its existing electrical assets, previously established interconnection positions and relatively advanced development work will attract greater attention as hyperscalers become more selective about delivery risk.
There is no indication that Microsoft's withdrawal from the Essex project is connected to Soluna, nor should a British computing requirement automatically be viewed as demand that can relocate to Texas. The more important development is the potential shift in how customers and investors compare competing infrastructure projects.
Soluna's remaining milestones are substantial. Kati 2 needs a binding customer agreement, project financing, completion of its supplemental power infrastructure and successful construction of an AI facility far more complex than its existing Bitcoin operations. Dorothy 3 has an even longer development path ahead.
Yet the company has already assembled several of the assets that are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain: operating sites, access to renewable generation, established interconnection infrastructure, development land and a team with direct hyperscale construction experience.
Microsoft's reported decision at Nscale underscores the commercial consequences of electricity infrastructure failing to keep pace with AI deployment schedules. For developers targeting 2027–2028, it may also improve the competitive environment at a particularly important moment.
As the industry moves from announcing gigawatts of proposed capacity to financing and occupying actual facilities, investors may increasingly distinguish between developers with ambitious long-term pipelines and those positioned to deliver usable megawatts within the next two years.
Soluna's opportunity is to turn that timing advantage into signed leases, funded construction and operating AI capacity. If it succeeds, the value of its existing power infrastructure could look substantially different from how the market assesses it today.
$slnh | The AI Data Center Boom Is Entering a New Phase: From Announced Gigawatts to Deliverable Capacity
A new Financial Times investigation raises an important question about the scale of America's AI infrastructure expansion: How much of the announced capacity will actually get built?
According to Bernstein, only approximately 35% of the planned U.S. data center pipeline is considered credible.
The firm's analysis identifies roughly 488 GW of announced nameplate capacity, but considers only about 170 GW credible.
Meanwhile, regulatory intelligence firm RegLayer has identified at least 47 major U.S. projects that have been delayed, withdrawn, or blocked in 2026. The Financial Times also reports that more than 1,000 communities have pursued moratoriums or other restrictions on AI infrastructure development this year.
These figures reveal a growing distinction between the industry's enormous development ambitions and the practical requirements of delivering operational computing capacity.
The constraints are becoming increasingly visible.
Electricity: Securing land and announcing a multi-gigawatt campus does not guarantee sufficient generation, transmission capacity, or an achievable grid connection.
Financing: Higher borrowing costs and greater scrutiny of AI infrastructure debt are forcing developers to demonstrate credible project economics, stronger counterparties, and realistic construction schedules.
Permitting: Community opposition, environmental reviews, and concerns about electricity prices and water consumption are creating additional uncertainty.
Execution: Even projects backed by major AI companies face engineering challenges, equipment constraints, construction overruns, and contractual delivery obligations.
Yet these developments should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that demand for AI computing is disappearing.
Instead, they suggest that the market is beginning to differentiate more aggressively between speculative development pipelines and projects with a realistic path to commercial operation.
That distinction could have important consequences for infrastructure valuations.
If a substantial portion of announced capacity never materializes, access to genuinely deliverable electricity may become more valuable than the headline size of a development pipeline.
Developers that have already secured suitable land, credible power arrangements, regulatory progress, and experienced engineering partners could find themselves in a stronger competitive position as less mature projects encounter delays.
This is particularly relevant to power-first developers such as Soluna Holdings ($SLNH).
Soluna's strategy centers on developing computing infrastructure around energy resources, including behind-the-meter renewable generation and hybrid power configurations.
Its Kati 2 and Dorothy 3 projects represent potential exposure to a market where the ability to deliver reliable electricity may increasingly determine which campuses attract customers and financing.
That does not eliminate the company's execution risks. Tenant agreements, financing commitments, engineering milestones, and construction schedules remain essential before proposed capacity can be treated as commercially secured.
But the broader industry implications are becoming clearer.
For several years, investors have focused heavily on the number of gigawatts developers could announce.
The next phase of the AI infrastructure cycle may place considerably greater emphasis on the number of megawatts they can actually finance, construct, energize, and monetize.
The opportunity in AI infrastructure remains enormous. The amount of capacity capable of capturing that opportunity may be considerably smaller than the announced pipeline suggests.
Source: Financial Times, October 18, 2026; Bernstein research; RegLayer.




















