Nerd at Pinecone Macro Research
Fox Island, WA
Joined October 2016
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The Shield of the Americasβwith its hyper-militarized strategy and Rambo-style catchphraseβis a squandered opportunity, I told @washingtonpost. βItβs very rare to have so many presidents aligned,β and the Pentagon βis only taking advantage of this moment to generate content for X.β
washingtonpost.com/world/202β¦
ππ’π§πππ¨π§π ππππ«π¨ retweeted
A Brazil small-cap ETF plunged as much as 38% in one day. They started buying.
@KYRRadio and Chase Taylor explain why they see an overreactionβand what still worries them about Brazil.
New KYR: youtube.com/watch?v=Tt_EHxE7β¦
ππ’π§πππ¨π§π ππππ«π¨ retweeted
Wall Street getting ready to drop another $IPO at 100X's sales
π§
π¨ For the first time in history, Chinese automakers have outsold their Japanese rivals in Europe over an entire quarter !
π¨π³ In September, Chinese brands accounted for 12.7% of European car sales, compared with 11.9% for Japanese automakers, with registrations nearly doubling year-over-year. BYD, Chery, and their competitors are now gaining market share at an extraordinary pace and their success is no longer driven solely by electric vehicles.
π In October 2024, the European Union introduced additional tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese-made battery-electric vehicles, on top of the standard 10% import duty, but hybrids were not covered. Chinese automakers quickly accelerated their expansion into this segment which is attractive to European consumers who remain hesitant about going fully electric. As a result, their share of European hybrid sales has surged to ~32% while hybrid technology has historically been one of the Japanese auto industry's greatest competitive advantages.
πͺπΊ China is no longer competing with Western automakers solely on price, it is now challenging them directly in their own strategic segments. With highly integrated supply chains, significant expertise in battery manufacturing and the ability to develop new models at remarkable speed, Chinese brands enjoy substantial competitive advantages. Meanwhile, European manufacturers must finance their technological transition while facing increasing pressure on volumes and margins.
β οΈ Brussels is now trying to restrict Chinese hybrid imports but tariffs cannot restore an industry's competitiveness. BYD is already developing manufacturing operations in Hungary, Chery is preparing production in Spain, and Leapmotor is leveraging Stellantis' European factories. If Europe taxes cars manufactured in China, Chinese automakers can increasingly manufacture those same vehicles directly in Europe.
β‘οΈ Europe can keep raising trade barriers but protecting a market has never been enough to make an industry competitive.
*Bloomberg link: bloomberg.com/news/articles/β¦
Important.
π Officials From Mecca Pact Countries To Meet Iranian Officials On Monday, Two Sources Say β Reuters
reuters.com/world/asia-pacifβ¦
I get the WHβs position on Ukraine hitting refineries but it feels like they should be just as mad about Black Sea shipping attacks.
π·πΊ πΊπ¦ #Russiaβs War on Ukraine Is Straining Food and Fuel Supply - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/β¦
In my Star Spangled Suez piece from early April I wrote about the possibility of a Muhammad Accord where the region could unite in a shocking way. While you can easily say the Mecca Agreement is the opposite - I think it could be the prelude to a Muhammad Accord - even if it does take a few years...
ΧΧΧ¨ΧΧ’ ΧͺΧ§ΧΧΧΧ: ΧΧΧΧ’Χ¦Χ ΧΧΧΧΧΧΧ ΧΧΧΧΧ ΧΧΧΧ¨ΧΧ ΧΧΧ©Χ¨Χͺ ΧΧ ΧΧΧΧ¨ΧΧ ΧΧͺΧ§ΧΧΧ ΧΧΧΧ ΧΧ€ΧΧ© Χ©Χ Χ©Χ¨ ΧΧΧΧ Χ ΧΧ‘Χ’ΧΧΧ, ΧΧ Χ‘ΧΧ Χ'ΧΧΧ ΧΧ Χ‘ΧΧΧΧ, ΧΧ€Χ§Χ Χ¦ΧΧ Χ€Χ§ΧΧ‘ΧΧ, Χ’ΧΧ‘Χ ΧΧΧ ΧΧ¨, ΧΧ¨ΧΧ© ΧΧΧΧΧΧ’ΧΧ ΧΧΧΧ¨Χ§Χ, ΧΧΧΧ¨ΧΧΧΧ Χ§ΧΧΧ, Χ’Χ ΧΧΧΧ¨ΧΧ ΧΧΧ¨ΧΧ ΧΧ ΧΧΧ ΧΧΧ ΧΧͺ ΧΧ’Χ¨Χ ΧΧΧΧΧΧ Χ ΧΧΧΧ¨Χ. ΧΧΧ¨ΧΧͺ ΧΧ¨ΧΧͺ ΧΧΧΧ Χ "ΧΧΧ" - Χ‘Χ’ΧΧΧΧ, ΧΧΧ¨Χ§ΧΧ, Χ€Χ§ΧΧ‘ΧΧ, Χ§ΧΧ¨Χ¦ΧΧͺ ΧΧΧ©ΧΧ¨ ΧΧΧΧΧͺΧΧΧΧΧͺ
