Can a mystery laptop make Californians take another look at the Republican party? A conversation with CA governor candidate @SteveHiltonx poly.market/bqRxT23

NEW WAYS TO LOSE From BobaGate to debate belch, does Graham Platner’s understudy have the juice? poly.market/3yda6HR/

SOURCES & METHODS Veteran journalist @MarkHalperin reveals how to cultivate political sources, and what his are telling him comes after the midterm 'bloodbath' poly.market/LSJQ5TO/

A kidney drug was trading at 88% to win FDA approval just days before the agency rejected it for a second time. Bad luck? Or were traders overlooking a warning sign hiding in plain sight? We pulled 446 FDA rejection letters to find out. poly.market/UENBLc0/

.@keendawg says forget the Senate. These four House races along the southern border have gotten hot, and are testing the wisdom of the recent GOP gerrymander poly.market/JBuqvZ2

Doug O’Laughlin of @SemiAnalysis_: Here is what a true AI bubble pop would look like poly.market/dnxL0f1/

SLOP OF WAR Geopolitical historian Walter Russell Mead @wrmead on the real drivers of Trump's Iran strategy, Ukraine game changers, the race to succeed Trump, and the secrets of pundit school poly.market/pQXkpwY

The NFL spent last season blowing up everything we thought we knew about the league. 2026 is about figuring out what reverts to the mean, and if the teams that look best on paper (cough, Rams) are going to dominate like they “should.” @Neil_Paine full breakdown inside… poly.market/M6pivK3/

.@amuse: One dodgy polling outfit is keeping Dems’ “blexas” fantasy alive. PLUS: who’s next off Trump island? poly.market/L9EXR4u

Part II of our interview with @robinhanson, the intellectual godfather of modern prediction markets. Inside: - The formula for being a profitable contrarian - The future of combinatorial prediction markets - Why nobody hedges divorce - Why it's easier than you think to have a big impact on the world poly.market/gBQjNd5/

Top Israeli political analyst @AmitSegal handicaps the October 27 election that will decide the next Prime Minister of Israel. - Market underrating Netanyahu? - How kingmakers can become king in Israeli politics - PLUS: what could bring Israel back into the Iran war? poly.market/1t4vE0O/

Journalist Andrew Asani speaks regularly with Houthi sources. In April, they were telling him closing the Bab el-Mandeb was not happening. Things have changed. poly.market/PZAQP6e

PLATNER MULTIVERSE A series of devastating allegations sunk the Senate campaign of Graham Platner - but Dems' odds of winning the seat actually improved during the scandal. The hidden math inside each Polymarket contract explains why -@zagrebbi poly.market/nC7b2zg/

On June 30, NPR published a story by legendary Supreme Court reporter Nina Totenberg incorrectly reporting the retirement of Justice Alito. The story was live for just 16 minutes before being retracted. This is the story of how one Polymarket trader walked away with at least $15,381.33 in profits from sniffing out the fake news. @zagrebbi investigates poly.market/d46MeYk/

PILL MILL Last year a kidney drug hit 89% odds for FDA approval on Polymarket, then crashed to zero in days. Nothing was wrong with the drug. Pharma researcher @real_akshay_k on how to not get rekt forecasting drug approvals. poly.market/3JZBKiP/