@prometheusmacro

Research service with the goal of democratizing finance. Making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public.

prometheus-macro.com
Joined January 2021
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Prometheus Institutional🔥 Prometheus is built on deep research into how the economy & markets work. We translate that into systematic programs across global markets. We offer an ever-evolving, forward-looking, signal-based view of the global macroeconomic landscape. Link ⬇️
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Hikes cause recessions when they drain private income. Since 1967, outside of COVID, a recession has never begun within a year of net interest drag falling. Today, it is falling, so the Fed's hikes so far aren't doing the work they used to.
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Our measure of industrial equipment production -- Prometheus Research
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacroOct 22
Our measure of industrial equipment production continues to accelerate within an expansion, and with industrial earnings expectations holding near their highs, the backdrop for industrial profits remains supportive
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Our measure of industrial equipment production continues to accelerate within an expansion, and with industrial earnings expectations holding near their highs, the backdrop for industrial profits remains supportive
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Hiking cycles are never fully priced in. -- Prometheus Research
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacroOct 22
Hiking cycles are never fully priced in. In 2022, the curve priced cuts while the Fed delivered 533bps of hikes. The Fed's inertia means policy tends to move further than markets expect at any given time.
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Prometheus Research retweeted
Bob Elliott
@BobEUnlimitedOct 22
High Nominal Growth -> Demand Destruction Financial markets looked right through the drags on the economy from high oil prices for most of the year. As oil gets back to Iran war highs, we are seeing an important shift in the market action. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
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Hiking cycles are never fully priced in. In 2022, the curve priced cuts while the Fed delivered 533bps of hikes. The Fed's inertia means policy tends to move further than markets expect at any given time.
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How Far Does The Fed Need To Go? -- Prometheus Research
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacroOct 21
How Far Does The Fed Need To Go? Over 30 pages of fundamental & systematic research, we assess how much the Fed needs to hike rates to meet its policy objectives. We find that risks remain skewed toward the Fed needing to raise rates materially more than priced Free. Link ⬇️
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How Far Does The Fed Need To Go? Over 30 pages of fundamental & systematic research, we assess how much the Fed needs to hike rates to meet its policy objectives. We find that risks remain skewed toward the Fed needing to raise rates materially more than priced Free. Link ⬇️
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Read it: prometheus-macro.com/p/how-f…

How Far Does The Fed Need To Go?

Much Further Than Currently Expected

prometheus-macro.com
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Prometheus Research retweeted
@aahan_prometheus
@AahanPrometheusOct 21
Bonds Are The Worst: Serious Edition 30 and pages of free game just dropped at Prometheus Linked below. Share with your loved ones.
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Prometheus Research retweeted
@aahan_prometheus
@AahanPrometheusOct 21
Replying to @dampedspring
@dampedspring @DsrPrivate Took a bit longer to answer than expected, but here’s my view
@aahan_prometheus
@AahanPrometheusOct 21
Bonds Are The Worst: Serious Edition 30 and pages of free game just dropped at Prometheus Linked below. Share with your loved ones.
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Our retail sales-implied estimate of real consumption points to a slowing contribution to GDP growth. -- Prometheus Research
Prometheus Research
@prometheusmacroOct 19
Our retail sales-implied estimate of real consumption points to a slowing contribution to GDP growth, as gasoline-driven nominal gains fail to translate into real spending.
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Our retail sales-implied estimate of real consumption points to a slowing contribution to GDP growth, as gasoline-driven nominal gains fail to translate into real spending.
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Coming soon.
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Prometheus Research retweeted
Bob Elliott
@BobEUnlimitedOct 15
Have only unwound a few weeks of the mania, and there are a lot of folks levered up on the long side of this trade.
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How Much Tightening Brings Inflation Down? In our latest note, we take a systematic walk through history to understand how much tightening the Fed will likely have to do to bring inflation to target. The answer is quite a lot. Link ⬇️
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Read it: prometheus-macro.com/p/how-m…

How Much Tightening Brings Inflation Down?

A Systematic Look Through History

prometheus-macro.com
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Prometheus Research retweeted
Andreas Steno Larsen
@AndreasStenoOct 14
Hedge funds: net Mag-7 exposure at an all-time high & short the suppliers. Elon on Saturday: “Problem is RAM supply.” Long the buyer, short the seller. Pick one.
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Replying to @AahanPrometheus
@AahanPrometheus sat down with @LButtiglione_ to discuss all things macro, including: - If US rates are below neutral - Global central bank pressures - EU Sovereign Stress Luigi brings a wealth of experience across academia, policymaking, and buy-side investing. Link below!
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Watch the complete video here: prometheus-macro.com/p/in-co…

In Conversation With Luigi Buttiglione

A recording from Prometheus Research's live video

prometheus-macro.com
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Prometheus Research retweeted
Danny Dayan
@DannyDayan5Oct 6
Excited to host a Macro Musings live discussion tomorrow on Substack with my friends and investing veterans @dampedspring and @DerivativesDon at 12pm EST. Come join us for a deep dive into all things macro! open.substack.com/live-strea…
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