The fact that both Lula and Flavio asked for the extension makes me feel ok about it... Not sure why the markets are dumping though, doesn't look justified.

Only 3 days since I published the midterms forecast and the House already moved a lot. A batch of polls in districts that had none pushed Democrats to 91%. It’s a good thing I bought D House a long time ago and never sold. The Senate slipped a bit to 64%, mostly on Nebraska, where OMEN is more bullish on Ricketts than the market. And Brazil votes tomorrow. My model has Flávio Bolsonaro at 82%, slightly above the market (again). Everything below 👇

It's here! After weeks of work, my midterms model is live. 506 races modeled, with commentary to the most contested ones across Senate, House and Governor elections. It is the most ambitious project of mine to date—4.5k words and plenty more code lines, that hopefully made a good forecast! It differs a bit from mainstream models, but has no overall party-lean. And it seems that at least a few important races are mispriced, most notably Alaska Senate race! Look below for the full model deep dive 👇

New Global Outlook is out. The midterms have gone quiet. The market has sat at 62–63% for a Democratic sweep for almost two weeks. My model is at 66%, so I think it’s still a bit cheap. Texas is where I disagree with the market. It has Talarico at 63%. I have him at 59%. Paxton is a bad candidate, but Texas is still a red state. The Fed market calmed down after Warsh’s comments, and Brazil’s runoff is a lot closer than the 89% Flávio price suggested a few weeks ago. Outside the US, Iran talks are stuck, and the Saudi–Houthi war is where the action is now. Israel votes next week with no bloc near a majority, and France just had its most violent weekend in years. Full Global Outlook in the link below 👇

I watched the Michigan debate and I'm not sure anything there justifies a drop in odds for El-Sayed. Sure, he could have done a lot better, but it's not a performance that costs votes. Just compare it to 2024 Biden and remember that he would have performed on par with Kamala come November.

lol remember 2018? The polls back then were a lot better for Cruz and he barely won…

The right is winning almost everywhere. Brazil: Bolsonaro an 83% runoff favorite. Spain: PP+Vox favored for the November 29 snap election. Israel: Likud back to 54%. France: Le Pen up 6 points. The US is the exception. A blue sweep is now at 67% and rising! This week's Global Outlook is full of election news 👇

Turns out I wasn't bullish enough on Bolsonaro! Directionally, my model was significantly closer to reality than the market, but still below current prices. The runoff is all but decided at this point, with traders giving Bolsonaro an 83% chance to be the next president of Brazil. Transfers heavily favor Bolsonaro, and with a 2-point lead in the first round, Lula has little chances to make it back. I end the first round with 151% return and an appetite for more elections. Next up: US midterms.

With 10% of the vote in, the forecast is playing out exactly as expected in Brazil:

I also have a few more positions on the margin of victory market and the 3rd place, among others.