⚽️ Sports betting Software 👨💻 https://xitter.cf/t.co/DAv6IGU2Y2 📊 Visuals instead of boring numbers - statistics built for sports bettors 🔞 https://xitter.cf/t.co/huD3pjDDTC
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⚽️ Paxten Aaronson Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 1.98
Correct odds according to the model closer to 1.50 and the usage models totally agree, can with pretty high confidence say that 1.98 is too high here. The Usage % have the worst case odds @ 1.65
⚽️ Curtis Jones Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.92
Not a lot of data to use here but had 1+ shots in 3/4 for Inter where 3/4 have been substitute appearances. Other Inter midfielders are always priced lower than this odds, a mistake by Kambi due to small data sample!
⚽️ Mitchell Van Bergen Over 2.5 Shots on Target @ 2.65
Covering this line 50%+ of the times at home in the Eredivisie, opponent ranked 13/18th in shots allowed and we have the correct odds around 1.63 according to the model and the usage model "corrects" this to 2.20 with the worst case around 2.90.
Meaning we pretty much have the chance here to take a bet @ 2.65 that probably have a fair odds around 2.0-2.20 and the worst case scenario is not bad at all. Close to EV +/-0 more or less.
Bet365 offers 1.50, 1.25, 1.53 for these bets where we are getting 1.98, 1.92, 2.65 a clear difference too even though Bet365's odds are just shit and much lower than fair odds here.
PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics retweeted
Good resource.
If possible, use clv as (another) metric. You’d need only around 100 bets to see where you stand…
the number of bets you need depends on your price and your edge, not a round number like 1,000. a 4% edge at -110 needs about 2,260 bets before expected profit sits 2 standard errors above zero. at +300 it needs about 7,700. a 2% edge at -110 needs about 9,070.
price sets the noise on every bet, and the edge is squared in the formula, so halving your edge takes about 4x the bets.
PropsData.io | Sportsbetting Statistics retweeted
Proud to be nr1 on the @propsdataio leaderboard!
Such a great tool for bettors nowadays and an efficient way of finding value on the market.
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Not enough luck with these longshots. Great value nonetheless!
That's why it's important to stake extremely small on high odds. They need time for the value to play out. Until then, you're just gambling.
A great bet with CLV on a sharp market, but Felix got injured and retired.
Money back!
Did not age well in the drafts, we’ll see if we have something more for tonight other than Osimhen 🙏👀
Everyone on the Osimhen train 🚂🚂🚂
⚽️ Osimhen Over 1.5 SOT @ 2.62
⚽️ Osimhen Over 2.5 SOT @ 4.50
Correct odds according to our numbers around 2.30, 5.50.
The normal model does not work very well in the Champions League as there's a very low sample size and teams face a very different quality of teams every year.
The normal model works when all teams face the same level of teams = league football.
Mostly looking at the usage model here which gives us correct odds around 2.30.
Anyone else on some bangers tonight? 💣
And of course we're taking De Minaur @ 29 for the exact same reason...
ATP Shanghai outrights (Kambi)
Khachanov to win his quarter @ 7.50
Khachanov to win the tournament @ 34
Zverev eats up way to much of these outright percentages. We have Zverev @ 3.50 to win the tournament, and Khachanov @ 23 to win. Great value on this one! Low stake.
All 8 matches are priced and somewhat settled. We ran a new simulation and found 2 high odds bets that have improved after some action came in on one of the remaining players...
Is anyone awake and ready for some picks? 🎾
With Alcaraz and Fils gone and both our players through, here are the new fair odds for our finalists.
Auger Aliassime @ 21 📉 5.64 (17.7%)
Tsitsipas @ 67 📉 11.11 (9%)
Round 3 has really shaken up the draw. We're looking at a couple of other outrights that have improved...
Casper Ruud - Felix Auger Aliassime
Auger Aliassime @ 1.78
Betsson group with the best odds available to us right now.
Felix is clearly stronger than Casper in our model. We expect to undervalue Ruud a little, but 1.78 gives us enough wiggle room. Should be well liked.
Tsitsipas came through against the 2nd toughest opponent in his half, Alcaraz being the toughest.
Auger Aliassime beat Carreño Busta and will face Ruud, where he's a clear favorite.
Felix Auger Aliassime to reach the final @ 21
Stefanos Tsitsipas to reach the final @ 67
Auger Aliassime is rated highly at the moment. Well into the top 10 with Djokovic out. ~9% finalist.
Tsitsipas has played great recently. Our model likes him and we do too. ~2% finalist.
Stefanos is ATP #43 but the 18th strongest player in our ratings.
Felix is ATP #5 but only the 9th strongest player in our ratings. Better than Tsitsipas on all metrics except for point dominance, where they're both 8.8. The max rating is 9.9 and all high rated male players need a strong serve rating.
