
@Polymarket α-hunter | Base dev | CyberSec
Prediction Markets
Joined February 2022
- Tweets5.7K
- Following489
- Followers1.4K
- Likes15.2K
It's just amazing this bro bet $4.82 on Mexico losing and won $1832
Mexico won but polymarket is not about the outcome of the event
but about what price you bought the bet at and how much you sold it for
His best trades:
$4.82 > $1832
$13.77 > $1104
$101 > $2297
His profile: polymarket.com/@0x228b8d11eb…
And all because he places limit orders to buy at a price of up to 1 cent for small amounts.
This story is not about an insider or the successful success of a polymarket trader - he also has losing positions but the result in a month is +75k
This is about smart moves, risk reward strategy and more.
🤝 Paid partnership
free $75 from Pumpfun just for using its mobile app
and yes, you can stack it across multiple phones
3 phones = $225
full instructions below
The pool refills weekly, but spots won't wait forever
pump is literally paying people $50 to trade on their app rn and barely anyone is doing it
but you’ll get $75 ($50 from pump + $25 from me)
after day 5, DM me a screenshot and your wallet address
i’ve already made $1k
the deal: deposit $51 > make 1 small trade a day for 5 days > they match your deposit with $50
the pool isn’t empty yet
payouts hit ~2am UTC every day
bookmark this and start today, you need all 5 days before it ends
full guide in the replies 👇
free $75 from Pumpfun just for using its mobile app
and yes, you can stack it across multiple phones
3 phones = $225
full instructions below
The pool refills weekly, but spots won't wait forever
pump is literally paying people $50 to trade on their app rn and barely anyone is doing it
but you’ll get $75 ($50 from pump + $25 from me)
after day 5, DM me a screenshot and your wallet address
i’ve already made $1k
the deal: deposit $51 > make 1 small trade a day for 5 days > they match your deposit with $50
the pool isn’t empty yet
payouts hit ~2am UTC every day
bookmark this and start today, you need all 5 days before it ends
full guide in the replies 👇
democrats flipped 7 senate seats last night. ohio, iowa, south carolina, maine, north carolina, kansas, texas.
texas. a democrat won a senate race there for the first time since 1988. talarico beat paxton.
michigan elected the first muslim senator in american history.
and anyone who bought dem senate shares when it looked crazy just got paid. one of friend walked away with $10k.
what stands out to me now isn’t the result. it’s how long the signal sat there before most people acted on it.
the people who lost last night weren’t stupid. they were anchored. “kansas doesn’t flip.” “texas is texas.” those were true for 30 years. right up until they weren’t.
that’s the uncomfortable part about markets. the past is the most convincing argument in the room, and the least useful one.
next test: 2028. and this time i’m not waiting for the crowd.
democrats flipped 7 senate seats last night. ohio, iowa, south carolina, maine, north carolina, kansas, texas.
texas. a democrat won a senate race there for the first time since 1988. talarico beat paxton.
michigan elected the first muslim senator in american history.
and anyone who bought dem senate shares when it looked crazy just got paid. one of friend walked away with $10k.
what stands out to me now isn’t the result. it’s how long the signal sat there before most people acted on it.
the people who lost last night weren’t stupid. they were anchored. “kansas doesn’t flip.” “texas is texas.” those were true for 30 years. right up until they weren’t.
that’s the uncomfortable part about markets. the past is the most convincing argument in the room, and the least useful one.
next test: 2028. and this time i’m not waiting for the crowd.
PS retweeted
Today's an exciting day for prediction markets.
It's not necessarily about the volume (although I'm tracking), but more about the predictive power.
I got into PMs because I'm a believer. I did this shit for free before hired by Poly. This shit is fun. Excited for tonight.
a year ago the market gave republicans a 72% chance to keep the senate.
tonight it’s 24%.
nobody won a debate. nobody had a scandal that flipped it. it bled out slowly, one gas station receipt at a time.
here’s the timeline:
> feb 28: strikes on iran. hormuz gets messy, gas jumps past $4
> spring: trump approval slides under 40%
> summer: gop bounces back to ~60%, everyone relaxes
> mid-sept: inflation bites again, the market flips and never looks back
the thing most people miss: voters don’t think in foreign policy. they think in prices. iran didn’t matter because of iran. it mattered because filling up a pickup started costing $20 more.
same thing that sank democrats in 2022. different party, same pump.
but here’s the part i keep thinking about:
markets were confident in 2016 too. polls overstated dems in 2020 and 2024. a 76% favorite loses one out of four times. that’s not rare. that’s a tuesday.
so tonight we find out what this is: a wave, or a crowd that talked itself into a narrative.
either way, the lesson stays the same. the economy you feel beats the economy you’re told about.
An acquaintance of mine keeps printing money +$79,000
+$29,000 in 2 weeks
Recent "low-bank" trades:
$19.53 > $1,740.20
$83.79 > $837.97
$276.01 > $2,760.34
Almost all of them are 10x returns
Top cities: Istanbul, Shanghai, and Chengdu.
As soon as this trader appeared, I told you about him right away -
and he’s already racked up nearly $80,000 in profit
I said he was the new legend of the current market, and that’s exactly what he is.
A legend of the weather markets is back with a new account
This guy made $48k in two weeks
Up $11k just today
I’ve seen a trader like this before, and I suspect it’s the same person.
Last time, he made $100k in a month and then vanished.
(The trading styles are very similar, the markets traded match up, and the win rate is identical.)
Here’s his profile, I think once his PnL hits $100k, he’ll disappear again: polymarket.com/profile/0x2e3…
He joined Polymarket on October 3rd and has already made enough for a BMW (in just 12 days).
His best trades:
$276.01 -> $2,760.34
$209.29 -> $1,165.13
$1,694.91 -> $6,127.96
He trades only weather markets—specifically Singapore, Shanghai, and Beijing.
Average purchase price: 25 cents
Do you think he’ll also disappear once his PnL hits 100k?
bro made $20K in a month and has already opened new positions for november
his best trades came in over the last 3 days
$23.51 > $371.05
$6.89 > $330.68
$22.48 > $326.66
this guy trades exclusively in weather markets, covering practically every available city
he's already opened positions for November:
"Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on November 1?"
bought NO
"Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on October 31?"
bought YES
dude has several more positions open for the coming days.
His profile: polymarket.com/@241532532432…
Let's see if he's just lucky or actually knows what he's doing.
30 minutes left until the sale ends.
definitely already raised between 40 million
I think we’ll hit 50 by the end (not sure about 60 million).
I’m going to buy YES 50 million—and I might throw a couple hundred USDC into the sale.
Oversubscription now 10x
And 5k participants
Are you participating?
1WIN at $30M FDV is mispriced
1win is doing its TGE on Solana. The public sale is $0.03, which puts FDV at $30M.
Here’s how the market prices the other casino tokens right now:
Shuffle
-$2.3B in annual deposits
-$460M FDV, ~$240M mcap
BCGame
-$2B in annual deposits
-$378M FDV
So 1WIN has $140M in onchain deposits over the last 30 days, about $1.7B annualized
That’s onchain only. It doesn’t count the fiat side: 30M+ users, 100+ countries, running since 2016
1win is doing SHFL/BC-level onchain volume. It’s priced 15x below SHFL, 12x below BC
Re-rate scenarios:
BC comps: ~$378M FDV, about $0.38 (~12x)
SHFL comps: ~$460M FDV, about $0.46 (~15x)
Tokenomics:
1B fixed supply, no inflation after TGE
~26.7% circulating at TGE, so ~$8M initial mcap
No team or VC allocation
Revenue-funded buybacks, plus a 10% burn on tokens spent on the platform
Do you agree, or what do you think the FDV should be?
pump is literally paying people $50 to trade on their app rn and barely anyone is doing it
but you’ll get $75 ($50 from pump + $25 from me)
after day 5, DM me a screenshot and your wallet address
i’ve already made $1k
the deal: deposit $51 > make 1 small trade a day for 5 days > they match your deposit with $50
the pool isn’t empty yet
payouts hit ~2am UTC every day
bookmark this and start today, you need all 5 days before it ends
full guide in the replies 👇
how to get the $75 deposit match from pump (takes 5 min a day)
time-sensitive, do it on mobile
step 1: account
open pump.fun/u/TenTundraCat or use refferal code in app TenTundraCat
sign up with email + verify OTP
download the pump app
step 2: deposit
tap deposit → cash
check you see the “up to $50 match” banner first
deposit $51+
step 3: trade 5 days
make a $10+ trade, hold 10–15 min, sell
once a day, 5 days, different coins each time
bonus lands around 2am UTC daily
that’s it — $50 back on top of your deposit after day 5, DM me a screenshot and your wallet address and i will send u 25$
PS retweeted
We've identified & fixed an issue impacting our international platform, Polymarket.com. One of our 3rd party providers was compromised, and we have referred this to relevant law enforcement.
Anyone who has been impacted will be made whole.
Out of an abundance of caution, we have temporarily halted trading & are working to bring the platform back online.
wtf , 3 trades and this guy made $170k
He turned $524.4 into $75,314
$500.90 into $49,485
$500.00 into $49,412
I don’t know how this is possible,
but his bio says: "The biggest risk is taking no risk."
Here’s his profile[polymarket.com/@cointrick?vi…]
He usually trades various markets, but these 3 stand out from the rest.
His account’s total PnL is $285k
one day you’ll turn $1.5k into $170k too—everything has its time
1WIN at $30M FDV is mispriced
1win is doing its TGE on Solana. The public sale is $0.03, which puts FDV at $30M.
Here’s how the market prices the other casino tokens right now:
Shuffle
-$2.3B in annual deposits
-$460M FDV, ~$240M mcap
BCGame
-$2B in annual deposits
-$378M FDV
So 1WIN has $140M in onchain deposits over the last 30 days, about $1.7B annualized
That’s onchain only. It doesn’t count the fiat side: 30M+ users, 100+ countries, running since 2016
1win is doing SHFL/BC-level onchain volume. It’s priced 15x below SHFL, 12x below BC
Re-rate scenarios:
BC comps: ~$378M FDV, about $0.38 (~12x)
SHFL comps: ~$460M FDV, about $0.46 (~15x)
Tokenomics:
1B fixed supply, no inflation after TGE
~26.7% circulating at TGE, so ~$8M initial mcap
No team or VC allocation
Revenue-funded buybacks, plus a 10% burn on tokens spent on the platform
Do you agree, or what do you think the FDV should be?
PS retweeted
⚠️ ALERT: PREDICT FUN ON BSC LIKELY EXPLOITED
Approx $300K in suspected exploit funds moving from multiple contracts through intermediary wallets to Relay.
The funds were reportedly bridged and subsequently routed to Tornado Cash.
We are tracking additional addresses as the investigation continues.
I gave Claude $1,000 and one job: trade Polymarket's 5-min BTC markets.
4 strategies died in one day. The 5th went 3 for 3.
The edge isn't predicting Bitcoin. It's seeing it 1.15 seconds early.
These markets settle on Chainlink. Pyth Pro sees the same move first: 20 updates a second vs 1. That gap costs $2,500 a month, and it's the whole strategy:
> Pyth moves +5.6 bps, model says 82% UP
> market still sells UP at 70¢
> BUY UP 70¢ · $20
> 2 seconds later the market catches up, DOWN drops to 24¢
> HEDGE DOWN 24¢: 70 + 24 = 94¢ for a $1 payout
> LOCKED +$1.92 before the window even closes
Same script on SOL (+$5.50) and BTC again (+$1.49).
Hedge funds pay millions for latency. This is a $20 bet and a Rust bot.
Every rule, every failed strategy and the exact entry filters below
you're not trading against people on polymarket anymore
you're trading against this
64 AI agents. one order book. zero sleep.
here's what happens in the time it takes you to open the app:
- a headline drops
- a news agent reads it in 40ms
- it reprices 8 markets before you even see the notification
- an arbitrage agent spots the same event priced differently on two markets
- it buys both sides and locks in the gap
- a market-maker agent quotes the new price on both sides and collects the spread
- a kelly agent sizes the bet so it can never go to $0
by the time you tap "Buy YES" the edge is already gone
you didn't lose to a smarter trader
you lost to a faster one
and it doesn't get tired at 3am
it doesn't revenge trade after a loss
it doesn't hold a bag because it "has a feeling"
it doesn't care who wins the election
it only cares that the price is wrong
every agent runs a different brain:
• momentum - buys whatever is moving
• contrarian - bets the crowd overreacted
• sentiment - reads X faster than you scroll it
• bayesian - updates on every new data point
• market-maker - gets paid just for being there
put 64 of them in one room and something weird happens
they argue with money
thousands of orders per minute
and the odds converge on the answer before most humans have even read the question
that's what you're looking at in this video
polymarket used to be people betting on the future
now it's machines pricing it
and the humans?
the humans are the liquidity
so be honest:
are you trading against the bots…
or building one?












